2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

by: Matt

Tue May 31, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM EDT


Welcome to the first edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The initial forecast is for the Democrats is for a final tally of 48.9 seats, a loss of 4.1 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

But with signs of improved Democratic enthusiasm this year, it’s just as likely that the curve will start heading back up at some point. We’ve still got 17 months to go before the election.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall

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2012 DCW Senate Forecast: | 4 comments


by: you @ soon

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  • Math (0.00 / 0) This is a case where the math is likely to make the Democratic chances of holding the Senate look worse than they are for quite a while.

    Why? Because Senate elections in toss-up seats are partially national in nature, and tend to move together.

    To show how this works, let’s start by drawing some lines on the chart. Give Arizona and down to the R’s, and West Virginia and up to the Dems. That provides a net gain of 1 to the R’s.

    Now, for the sake of investigating the mathematics, assume that at some point the national environment looks like this:

    55% chance of a good D environment: award all toss-ups to Dems. Result: Dems gain one net seat.

    35% chance of a good R environment: award all toss-ups to R’s. Result: GOP gains 8 net seats.

    10% chance of a very close environment: split toss-ups 50/50. Result: GOP gains 4.5 net seats.

    With only a 60% chance (55 + 1/2 of 10) of winning any given toss-up seats, the seats would still be rated as toss-ups in the chart. And that would give an expected GOP gain of 4.5 seats. And yet the Dems would have a 55% chance of gaining seats.

    My point is not to criticize the way DCW calculates the projections: we’ve got to do it somehow, and this is a reasonable method. But in this particular cycle, it could be misleading: the projection could be for a loss of 4 or 5 seats, even if the Democrats are favored to hold or add to their total.


    by: SarahLawrence Scott @ Tue May 31, 2011 at 10:37:20 AM CDT

    by: you @ soon

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  • Not so clear cut (0.00 / 0) 55% of gaining 1 seat, 10% chance of losing 4, 35% chance of losing 8? You think that projection comes out to the Dems are favored to hold or add to their total? The expected value of such a projection is -2.8 seats. Come up with a more realistic spread of expectations, and the DCW formula will be reasonable accurate.


    by: Matt @ Tue May 31, 2011 at 18:06:31 PM CDT [ Parent ]

    by: you @ soon

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  • Texas (0.00 / 0) I’m surprised the conventional wisdom has Texas as R. Of 17 polls on the race, only one has the Republican candidate getting more than 50% of the vote. It’s true that 15 have the Republican winning, but it’s typically numbers like the low 40’s for the Republican to the low 30’s for the Democrat. That’s just the respective bases for the two parties: as we’ve seen in other elections, swing voters are quite capable of moving mostly in one direction.

    So personally I’d rate Texas as RL.

    Of course, similar logic could rate Hawaii and Connecticut as DL’s–but Roll Call, at least, did that.


    by: SarahLawrence Scott @ Tue May 31, 2011 at 10:53:30 AM CDT

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  • just received the following email, is it correct? what is going on? (0.00 / 0) Travis County split into 5 CDs

    Doggett has been a target of the Repubs for a longtime. Travis county is a Dem area but now, well it is so split up Dems can not win. The restrictions Doggett put on the Fed education money was that it be used for education!  Perry did not like that restraint.

    http://mo.statesman.com/news/t…


    by: UplandPoet @ Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 09:29:27 AM CDT [ Parent ]

    by: you @ soon

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