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Evening update: 8/17/09

by: Matt

Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 22:14:17 PM EDT


  • IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R): 41 , Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 ; Mark Kirk (R): 47 , Cheryle Jackson (D): 30 
  • Is Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) going to challenge Sen. Chuck "they're gonna kill grandma" Grassley?
  • Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle will not run for reelection.
  • Florida Governor Charlie Crist may pick Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to replace Sen. Mel Martinez. Would this tempt Crist's opponent for the open Senate seat, Marco Rubio, to run for Congress instead? Or maybe even run for brother Mario Diaz-Balart's seat?
Update: Never mind.
Matt :: Evening update: 8/17/09

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2010 IL US Senate Election. (0.00 / 0)
Looking at the Subgroups.
Giannoulias leading Kirk among Democrats by a 63-22
Kirk is leading Giannoulias among Republicans by a 71-15
and Independents by a 45-18.
Kirk is going to end up with 85-90 percent of the Republican vote in the General Election.
Giannoulias is going to end up with 80-85 percent of the Democratic vote in the General Election. Among Indepedents.
Kirk will get between 50-55, Giannoulias will get 35-40.

Democrats will consist of 45% of the electorate. Republicans will consist of 30% of the electorate and Independents will consist of 25%.
At worse.
Kirk will get 90% of the Republican vote. 27
Giannoulias will get 10% of the Republcan vote.  3.
Giannoulias will get 80% of the Democratic vote. 36
Kirk will get 20% of the Democratic vote. 9
Kirk will get 55% of the Independent vote. 14.
Kirk will maxout at 50% (49.75%)
Giannoulias will get 35% of the Independent vote- giving Giannoulias 48% (47.75). At worse- Kirk wins by a 50-48 percent margin.

Best case scenario.
Kirk will get 85% of the Republican vote 25.5
Giannoulias will get 15% of the Republican vote. 4.5
Giannoulias will get 85% of the Democratic vote. 38.25
Kirk will get 15% of the Democratic vote. 6.75
Kirk will get 50% of the Independent vote. 12.5
Giannoulias will get 40% of the Independent vote. 10.

Giannoulias wins by a 53-44 percent margin.

What is most likely to occur is
Kirk will get 90% of the Republican vote. 27
Giannoulias will get 10% of the Republican vote. 3
Giannoulias will get 85% of the Democratic vote. 38.25
Kirk will get 15% of the Democratic vote. 6.75
Kirk will get 55% of the Independent vote. 13.75
Giannoulias will get 40% of the Independent vote. 10
Giannoulias will end up with 51%(51.25) of the popular vote. Kirk will end up with 48% (47.5) of the popular vote.



You only have to win by 1 vote (0.00 / 0)
51-48 sounds good to me.

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