HERE is the 7th installation in a series that deeply examines ALL of the polling to-date. You can also find parts I-VI at my politics blog. It’s a true data-baseline.
By “all”, I mean 1,537 polling matchups to-date, and it’s not even election year yet.
There are too many tables and such data to port over here and I am not going to quote any of it; rather, I request that you go to the link and read it for yourself.
In the analysis:
-how many states have been polled to date.
-exact numbers on how many polls per state, also by GOP candidate, meaning, an exact listing.
-a detailed explanation of the raw-data, with links to a large EXCEL-table, with every single poll. Also, a download link for that EXCEL-document for anyone who wants to see it offline. GoogleDocs doesn’t always work well online. The nice thing about that is that each state has its own tab, you can tab to where you want to go to see all of the stats. Every poll is hyperlinked to its source.
-a listing of the 42 separate pollsters who have polled thus far (it was 33 just 6 months ago).
-a in-depth analysis of state-polling, with emphasis on the 7 most key-states. I bet you already know which ones those are. But also analysed are a number of RED states that might surprise you.
-a section on national polling and the entry of Donald Trump into the Republican nomination race.
-also a listing of 3, maybe four factors to be watched, with benchmarks.
-my polling wish-list
-a Facit: at the end.
Because I am not taking averages yet, there is no reason to be making predictions yet. But trends and currents can be seen.
The one thing that sticks out the most is how unbelievably stabile and consistent the data has been over the last 2.5 years.
Barring any strange or jolting happenings in the nomination race, the next analysis comes out shortly before or after the Iowa caucuses in January 2016. And as of that point in time, this series ceases and the “2016 Electoral Landscape” series begins, with averages and predictions, including predictive EV maps.
It’s a long read, so bring your coffee with you.