Minnesota: possible first crack in the “Blue Wall”?

By Statistikhengst | Published August 5, 2015
PPP (D) released a poll from the great state of Minnesota with numbers that, for the first time, really surprised me and should cause us to reflect maybe a little bit. For some reason, the data was just too much for word-press to handle and so, for the sake of cleanliness and simplicity, I am going to link  directly to my politics blog-posting over this.

Lots of very interesting data for there, hope you all enjoy.

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2 thoughts on “Minnesota: possible first crack in the “Blue Wall”?”

  1. SarahLawrenceScott

    My sense is that in states with a historical lean, it’s more important to look at the percentage saying they’d vote for the “crossover” candidate (e.g. a Republican Presidential candidate in Minnesota) than at the margin between the candidates.

    Consider, for example, how a strong Bernie Sanders supporter in Minnesota might respond to this poll. They might be hesitant to commit to voting for Clinton in the general election, preferring to think of themselves as “undecided.” But they’re not, really–they’d very likely vote for Clinton when it comes down to it. The same thing is not going to be quite as true for a Republican in Minnesota. They’re tired of their state voting Democratic in every Presidential election, so they’ll register their support for any Republican. In Kentucky, those positions reverse.

    The highest a Republican gets in the PPP poll is 42%. That’s entirely consistent with the polling level for Republican candidates in Minnesota from previous years. If that number starts to rise toward 50, there’s cause to worry. But so far, no sign of that.

    1. Statistikhengst Post author

      To a certain point, I agree with you, and more likely than not, MN is probably Fool’s Gold for the GOP. That being said, with such a candidate of high quality as Hillary Clinton, it should never even once be this close in Minnesota.

      And as the snowbelt states empty-out and the sunbelt states continue to disproportionately grow in population, this certainly opens up at least the possibility for opportunity for the GOP.

      This doesn’t mean I want the GOP to win. Quite, the opposite. But when it comes to the numbers themselves, I am brutally neutral.

      Plus, the reminder-chapter about the reverse-image symbiosis betwee NM and IN is good to refresh…

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