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New Hampshire Primary Preview

by: DocJess

Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 06:00:00 AM EST

Another Tuesday, another primary. Popcorn ready?

All the polls say that Mittens will win tonight. I'm not so sure. A win for him means that he breaks that 25% ceiling, in addition to getting the most votes. Think about the math for a minute: only a small percentage of people vote in primaries, most of them not Democrats this year. If Mittens can't get more than 25% of the voters most likely to support him, what does that mean, mathematically, in the general?

Plus, the past two days have not been good for Mittens. The hit from Jon Huntsman in the Sunday morning debate was pretty close to fatal. In case you missed it:

“I was criticized last night by Governor Romney for putting my country first,” Huntsman said in the NBC/Facebook debate from New Hampshire. “He criticized me while he was out raising money for serving my country in China, yes, under a Democrat, like my two sons are doing in the United States Navy. They’re not asking who — what political affiliation the president is. I want to be very clear with the people here in New Hampshire and this country: I will always put my country first. And I think that’s important to them.” [...]

“I think we serve our country first by standing for people who believe in conservative principles and doing everything in our power to promote an agenda that does not include President Obama’s agenda,” Romney said. “I think the decision to go and work for President Obama is one which you took. I don’t disrespect your decision to do that. I just think it’s most likely that the person who should represent our party running against President Obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in China.”

“This nation is divided… because of attitudes like that,” Huntsman said. “The American people are tired of the partisan division. They have had enough. There is no trust left among the American people and the institutions of power and among the American people and our elected officials. And I say, we’ve had enough, and we have to change our direction in terms of coming together as Americans first and foremost and finding solutions to our problems.”

It's in certain ways even worse then Mittens liking firing people. Here's a Republican saying that standing up for "conservative principles" (whatever they actually are) is more important than serving one's government when called. For everyone of us who was ever drafted, or asked to serve in some other capacity, you serve. What does it say when someone says that it's more important to spend your time doing something else? Wait, I remember, it's like the teabaggers in Congress who almost let us default because some principle they don't really believe in seemed to matter more. How dishonourable. Mittens never served in the military. Why? He was born in 1947, putting him at draft age in 1965. He had a deferment for being a "Mormon minister of faith." Really. He also had an academic deferment, and finally drew a high draft number in 1970. But for those who are already hinky about his religion (bigots all) this won't sit well, and I'm probably not the only one who knows that he not only puts "conservative principles" above serving the United States of America, but also places serving the Mormon faith before serving the United States. 

Could Mitt lose? Absolutely - remember that in 2008, the polls were off by 8 - 10%, enough to give the win to Hillary Clinton. Albeit, the Republican polls correctly predicted John-Boy McCain's win. Here are all the polls available, look at them and think about what happens if they're off by 10 points.

More, and two DCW polls, after the jump. 

DocJess :: New Hampshire Primary Preview

In addition to what Huntsman did to Mittens, and multiple-choice Mitt's own self-immolation, there's the issue going forward of what Newt's $3 million in Super Pac money will do. Even Rick Perry has been all over Mitt, and when Rick is getting his swings in, and they're connecting, Mitt has to be rattled.

If you were a New Hampshire voter, what would you be thinking about today? If I were a Republican, or any other form of anyone-but-Obama, I'd be questioning whether the damage over the past two days was the tip of the iceberg, and that Mittens may well not be electable. If enough people feel that way, it could be all over for the presumptive nominee. And then the question becomes, do they go with Huntsman, Paul, Santorum, Perry or Gingrich? What do you think?

The next question is who comes in second. This will matter going forward to South Carolina, with two more debates coming up next week, and thus an opportunity for even more self-destruction on the part of any of the candidates. 

Feel free to use the comments to list your guess on the final percentage tallies. 

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What equals a win (0.00 / 0)

To me, in his home state (or second home state), a narrow win is not a win for Romney.  If he is under 30%, it is a disaster.  If he is between 30-35%, it is a loss, but not a disaster.

For the other candidates, if Romney is under 35%, anything over 15% is a win regardless of the exact ranking, unless somebody is at 22% and the others are at 16%.

i think he did well enough to be considered the presumptive nominee (0.00 / 0)
it really depends on what happens to the disgruntled paulites. the conservatives are beginning to show signs of falling into line to support "best chance" even 40% of tea partiers went for mitt, but the question is, are there 10-20% of the Gopers who would support a rick santorum or ron paul? and would rick and/or paul run as 3rd parties? for what purpose? to reelect Obama? or are their egos that big? if romney wins SC, which it looks like he will, is there a firewall to stop him anywhere else? if Paul and the winner of 2nd or 3rd place in SC (Santorum or Newt), stay in the race til the end, does that buy a VP slot? does it create the basis for a 3rd party? what happens?  

I see, and admittedly, i am not an insider, and my record of prognostication is terrible, but, given that, i see romney winning outright with paul stayin in for another month, anfd Mr. No. 3, staying in about that long, Romney getting a big lead and they drop out, endorse him at the convention, and a somewhat disallusioned goper base still  holds their nose because they hate obama. 8% or less unemployment, Obama wins big, a new recession or just a bad stall and romney has a shot.




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