Welcome to Democratic Convention Watch

Donate to DCW

Follow DCW on Twitter
Follow DCW on Facebook
2012 Democratic Convention
2012 Republican Convention
2012 GOP Superdelegate List

AP Delegate Count
Romney989
Santorum265
Gingrich130
Paul106
Unallocated58
Needed to Win: 1144

2012 Senate Forecast: 48.9

Charlotte Host Committee
DNCC
2010 Census

Follow DCW on Google+
DCW iPhone App Info
A Guide to DemConWatch
Tags
FAQ
2008 Democratic Primary Links
2008 Democratic National Convention Links
DemConWatch Archives '05-'08
DemConWatch Speeches
Inauguration Information
DCW Store

HOME
Mobile Version




Search


Advanced Search
Contributors:
MattOreo
DocJess

This site is not affiliated with the DNC, DNCC, or any campaign.

Email us at

Blog Roll
Frontloading HQ
The Field
MyDD
Swing State Project
DemNotes
DemRulz

DCW in the News
St. Louis Channel 2 News
AP
Politico
Wall Street Journal
The New York Times
NPR
Wired
US News & World Report

Delegate Allocation Confusion

by: Oreo

Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 09:36:24 AM EST


The AP has a story today on delegate counts.

There were only 12 delegates at stake in the primary because New Hampshire was penalized half its delegates for holding the contest before February. Romney won 13 delegates in last week's Iowa caucuses, giving him a total of 20 for the race.

They're right about New Hampshire's totals as Matt reported last night. The problem is with Iowa. After the Iowa caucuses we told you what the real delegate allocation was. ZERO. Iowa's delegates are not only unbound to a candidate but worse they haven't even been selected yet. That makes them uncountable. For all we know Ron Paul could sweep the delegates the way they stand now.

The AP goes on to explain their delegate allocation in Iowa

Political parties in some states, including Iowa, use local caucuses to elect delegates to state or congressional district conventions, where national delegates are selected. In Iowa and other caucus states, the AP uses the results from local caucuses to calculate the number of national delegates each candidate will win if the candidates maintain the same level of support throughout the process.

Iowa has a total of 28 delegates to the National Convention. The AP gave Romney 13 of these delegates, gave Santorum 12 and gave no delegates to the rest of the candidates. This includes Ron Paul who received 21% of the vote? By some magic they decide Paul doesn't get any delegates (even though none of the candidates actually have delegates). If I was a Ron Paul supporter I'd call shenanigans.

Beyond the APs counting of the yet-to-be-named unbound delegates from Iowa, they fail to consider superdelegates. We give solid evidence in our 2012 GOP Superdelegate List that Romney has 13 supers on his side. Why wouldn't they count these unless they're not entirely sure what they're doing?

 

Oreo :: Delegate Allocation Confusion

Follow Democratic Convention Watch on Facebook and Twitter. Iphone/Android apps available.

Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Journalism? (0.00 / 0)
In my experience, journalists, (with the rare exception of a handful of investigative journalist, though most of them fit this same mold), are very good at repeating what they are told, and suffer greatly when math science or actual facts of any quantitative sort are required. I am pretty sure they let someone tell them something like, well, the delegates are unbound, but will generally give the delegates to the candidates who achieve a certain floor, say 15%, but in this case, the establishment will block ron paul from getting delegates, so it will be a 13 12 split for the almost tied top two. so they run with it. in reality, the top 13 will quite possibly be awarded to romney by the party insiders,unless santorum stays in the race to the end, and the 12 will be allocated god knows how, so the short answer is, of course DCW is correct, the "big boys are completely wrong, unless by some quirk of fate they happen to GUESS correctly. but trust no journalist, left, right or middle to get the facts right. they are only as good as their sources, and when they either get a bad source or misunderstand the source, they can get it horribly wrong.....

And this... (0.00 / 0)
Is why we started our superdelegate list in 2008 before anybody knew what one was.

[ Parent ]
what about the 20 vote over count for Romney (0.00 / 0)
As far I can tell the poll worker who said Romney recieved 2 votes not 22 has been confirmed and the Iowa Republican chair has said he believes that is the case, so why is everybody still acting like Romney won, and saying he made history, when in fact he didn't. This is the most accelerated case of revisionist history ever.

My guess (0.00 / 0)
Is that if the party wants Romney to win they're not going to say he lost Iowa. Unless Republicans start to raise a stink about it then we have always been at war with Eurasia.

[ Parent ]
...and then there's this... (0.00 / 0)
http://www.alternet.org/electi...

They contend that Obama didn't really lose the New Hampshire primary in 2008.

I pass it on without comment, I just received it yesterday and thought it was interesting.


[ Parent ]
I mean where is the Press (0.00 / 0)
I assumed that would be the case with the party, but where is the reporting on it, the so called press is absent as usual.

someone recently posted a quote on facebook turns out it was sort of William Randolph Hearst who said

"News is something somebody doesn't want printed; all else is advertising."

although I like the what they posted it better describes the current press

"News is something somebody doesn't want printed; everything else is public relations."


[ Parent ]
joe g (0.00 / 0)
The press never has and probably never will understand stuff, they write copy, it has to be spelled correctly and be grammatically correct and should not use phrases like "if you build it they will come."

[ Parent ]
What I read was (0.00 / 0)
that, according to the rules, the numbers reported to the county (or state?) are considered official, end of discussion.

A caucus is a party-run, not a government run, election, so they can do what they want. There's no recourse, no recount.  


[ Parent ]
well, i think the bigger isuue is that none of that vote even matters (0.00 / 0)
 except as perception, as no delegates were bound. abd the perception was pretty much for the send off to NH, and by the time that story gotten straightened out, Santorum was busy finishing a distant 3rd. If Santorum or Gingrich can win or get close in SC, they will get a strong lift for the rest of the primaries, if the finish looks like NH, then it is romney all the way with Paul leading a band of revolutionaries, either to generally cause mischief or to go 3rd party, but without a good stop in SC, i think Mitts is the man. no matter who won the beauty contest in iowa


Menu


Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

Make a New Account


Currently 0 user(s) logged on.



Subscribe to Posts

DemConWatch on Twitter
DemConWatch on Facebook


View blog authority

Add to Technorati Favorites

Wikio - Top Blogs - Politics

Who links to my website?

Sign the Petition (A)
Powered by: SoapBlox