GOP Delegate Count

they dont add up! do you add these to the supers to get your actual total? (0.00 / 0)

obviously, they have almost no connection to the projections

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by: UplandPoet @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 01:05:16 AM UTC

?? (0.00 / 0)

Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/Huntsman all add up.  Only Paul's don't add up.

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by: pretzalz @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 01:42:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paul's numbers were wrong (0.00 / 0)

His Nevada # was wrong. Fixed. Thanks for catching this.

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by: Matt @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 02:22:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

well (0.00 / 0)

partially fixed anyway. ;)

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by: pretzalz @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 05:09:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

and now totally fixed......I hope (0.00 / 0)

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by: Matt @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 17:29:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

like (0.00 / 0)

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by: UplandPoet @ Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 00:32:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes (0.00 / 0)

I added some explanatory text to make that clear.

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by: Matt @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 02:20:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks, (0.00 / 0)

but you know it is numbers, so i take nothing for granted:)

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by: UplandPoet @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 09:48:25 AM UTC

Updated to show pledged + supers (0.00 / 0)

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by: Matt @ Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 17:34:22 PM UTC

did anyone else see this Friday? (0.00 / 0)

Ron Paul claims that his supporters are going to hijack caucus delegates. Should you add more delegate counts according to each candidates delusions  

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by: joe.giannasio @ Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 18:55:59 PM UTC

Perhaps neither delusion nor hijacking. (0.00 / 0)

Unlike the Democratic Party which does use the initial support (actually the modified initial support after people move from non-viable candidates to viable candidates, the Republicans say that the straw poll is not binding in terms of delegate selection.

In both parties, delegate selection takes place a little bit late in the process. Under the Republican rules in most of the caucus states (Nevada being the only exception so far), those who stick around for the later part of the evening when delegates are actually selected get to allocate delegates however they see fit.  If that means that the Paul folks (while small in number) have the tenacity to stick around and get more delegates than their initial support merits, they are playing strictly by the rules.

That is why Matt keeps two separate totals -- the pledged count which ignores states that do not award delegates based on the initial vote and the projected count which follows the general media mis-assumption that the delegates from these states will ultimately be proportional to the initial vote -- despite the state rules to the contrary.

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by: tmess2 @ Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 02:42:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

theoretically possible yes, but (0.00 / 0)

I doubt the Republican party would let it happen in the end, they tend to be too controlling.

It would be great if in the end Ron Paul manages to poach the bulk of caucus delegates, Spawn of Satan becomes the last standing "Not Mitt" now that Newt lost his Billionaire, and that conservatives have chosen Spawn of Satan as their "Guy".

Then S.O.S. wins enough in the South and combined with whatever Ron Paul manages to poach it keeps Mittens from reaching 1144 and it becomes necessary for that Wisconsin Weasel Priebus is forced to either let more Chaos pursue or force delegates to vote for Mittens or whatever other authoritarian antics they can pull to show their true colors.

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by: joe.giannasio @ Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 05:03:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joe Giannasio (0.00 / 0)

I'm behind on Sunday with the Senators -- my plan WAS to start with Massachusetts and explain how Elizabeth Warren will sweep the Democratic primary, make mincemeat of Scott Brown, move on to Ohio and show Sherrod Brown's numbers, which are terrific, sadly remark on how Bob Kerrey isn't running, and we hadn't had Nebraska (really) in a while, and then go on from there.

But I'm REALLY BEHIND...but I promise to catch up.

While it looks "bad" in the end I think we'll hold the Senate.

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by: DocJess @ Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 10:02:59 AM UTC

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any word on the house? (0.00 / 0)

how much does obama need to improve his numbers to retake the house? is it possible? what if rick is top of the ticket? not that i can believe that will happen....

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by: UplandPoet @ Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 10:15:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Upland Poet (0.00 / 0)

I've only looked at a few dozen races, mostly in Florida, Massachusetts, Ohio and California. A lot seems to depend on the GOP primaries in a lot of places. I promise to put it on the list of things I need to get done.

My gut says that while we have about a 10% chance of reclaiming the House, we will AT LEAST make it close enough to even to make things still harder on whoever the majority leader is (and if the Republicans hold the House, it won't be Boehner.) Plus, the losing Republicans will be teabaggers, which will give cover to the more moderate members on the right.  

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by: DocJess @ Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 11:20:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks, hope you are right, (0.00 / 0)

by the way, my new job means i will probably have some free afternoons if there are investigations i can make that would help...

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by: UplandPoet @ Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 00:31:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

YES! THANK YOU! (0.00 / 0)

I will send you a FB message with details....THANK YOU!!  

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by: DocJess @ Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 07:32:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Google docs spreadsheet now available (0.00 / 0)

Link in the post

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by: Matt @ Sun Feb 19, 2012 at 00:28:04 AM UTC