This could be a deciding day in the 2016 race:
Update 12:20: Trump wins Northern Marianas, Florida, North Carolina and Illinois. Rubio Out. Kasich wins Ohio. Clinton wins Florida, NC, Ohio and Illinois. Early estimates showing her gaining 90 net delegates on Sanders.
On the Democratic side, if Clinton dominates in FL and NC, and battles to a draw in MO, IL and OH (even if she loses all 3 states), it will be clear to all that she will be the nominee, even if Sanders continues to the last primary, which he is certainly entitled to. If she sweeps all 5 states, Sanders will be under major pressure to lay off Clinton going forward, should he choose to continue in the race.
On the GOP side, the scenarios have been well laid out everywhere. If Trump wins the winner-take all states of FL and OH, it certainly looks over, although, in this scenario, with Rubio and Kasich both out, Cruz will have a chance to go one-on-one against Trump, and he does lead Trump in national polls in this scenario.
The more likely scenario is Kasich winning, Rubio losing and dropping out, and a three-man race continuing with very uncertain results.
We’ve got primaries in Florida (Polls close 7/8 PM EDT), Ohio (7:30), Missouri (8:00), North Carolina (7:30) and Illinois (8:00), and a GOP Convention in the Northern Marianas.
| Pledged Delegates | Superdelegates | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | Sanders | Clinton | Sanders | Clinton | Sanders | |
| Iowa | 23 | 21 | 6 | 29 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 9 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 16 |
| Nevada | 20 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 27 | 16 |
| South Carolina | 39 | 14 | 5 | 44 | 14 | |
| Georgia | 73 | 29 | 11 | 84 | 29 | |
| Vermont | 16 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 22 | |
| Virginia | 62 | 33 | 12 | 74 | 33 | |
| Alabama | 44 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 9 | |
| Arkansas | 22 | 10 | 5 | 27 | 10 | |
| American Samoa | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| Massachusetts | 46 | 45 | 20 | 1 | 66 | 46 |
| Oklahoma | 17 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| Tennessee | 44 | 23 | 7 | 51 | 23 | |
| Texas | 147 | 75 | 21 | 168 | 75 | |
| Colorado | 25 | 41 | 9 | 34 | 41 | |
| Minnesota | 31 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 42 | 49 |
| Kansas | 10 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 23 | |
| Louisiana | 37 | 14 | 6 | 43 | 14 | |
| Nebraska | 10 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| Maine | 8 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| Mississippi | 31 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 7 |
| Michigan | 63 | 67 | 12 | 75 | 67 | |
| Northern Marianas | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 2 | |
| Florida | 141 | 73 | 24 | 2 | 165 | 75 |
| Illinois | 79 | 77 | 24 | 1 | 103 | 78 |
| Missouri | 36 | 35 | 11 | 47 | 35 | |
| North Carolina | 60 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 68 | 49 |
| Ohio | 81 | 62 | 16 | 1 | 97 | 63 |
| Democrats Abroad | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| Arizona | 42 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 35 |
| Idaho | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| Utah | 6 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 29 |
| Alaska | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| Washington | 27 | 74 | 10 | 37 | 74 | |
| Hawaii | 8 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 20 |
| Wisconsin | 38 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 46 | 49 |
| Wyoming | 7 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 7 | |
| New York | 139 | 108 | 38 | 177 | 108 | |
| Connecticut | 28 | 27 | 15 | 43 | 27 | |
| Delaware | 12 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 9 | |
| Maryland | 60 | 35 | 17 | 1 | 77 | 36 |
| Pennsylvania | 106 | 83 | 21 | 127 | 83 | |
| Rhode Island | 11 | 13 | 9 | 20 | 13 | |
| Indiana | 39 | 44 | 7 | 46 | 44 | |
| Guam | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 | |
| West Virginia | 11 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 20 |
| Kentucky | 28 | 27 | 2 | 30 | 27 | |
| Oregon | 25 | 36 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 39 |
| Virgin Islands | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| Puerto Rico | 36 | 24 | 6 | 42 | 24 | |
| California | 269 | 206 | 64 | 333 | 206 | |
| Montana | 10 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 12 | |
| North Dakota | 5 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| New Jersey | 79 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 91 | 49 |
| New Mexico | 18 | 16 | 8 | 26 | 16 | |
| South Dakota | 10 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 10 | |
| District of Columbia | 16 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 40 | 6 |
| Total | 2218 | 1833 | 547 | 48 | 2765 | 1881 |
| Trump | Cruz | Kasich | Rubio | Uncommitted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 7 | 8 | 1 | 7 | |
| New Hampshire | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| South Carolina | 50 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Nevada | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| Georgia | 42 | 18 | 16 | ||
| Vermont | 8 | 8 | |||
| Virginia | 17 | 8 | 5 | 16 | |
| Alabama | 36 | 13 | 1 | ||
| Massachusetts | 22 | 4 | 8 | 8 | |
| Oklahoma | 13 | 15 | 12 | 3 | |
| Tennessee | 33 | 16 | 9 | ||
| Arkansas | 16 | 15 | 9 | ||
| Texas | 48 | 104 | 3 | ||
| Minnesota | 8 | 13 | 17 | ||
| Alaska | 11 | 12 | 5 | ||
| Kansas | 9 | 24 | 1 | 6 | |
| Kentucky | 17 | 15 | 7 | 7 | |
| Louisiana | 18 | 18 | 5 | 5 | |
| Maine | 9 | 12 | 2 | ||
| Puerto Rico | 23 | ||||
| Mississippi | 25 | 15 | |||
| Michigan | 25 | 17 | 17 | ||
| Idaho | 12 | 20 | |||
| Hawaii | 11 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Virgin Islands | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| District of Columbia | 9 | 10 | |||
| Guam | 1 | 5 | |||
| Wyoming | 1 | 23 | 1 | 1 | |
| Florida | 99 | ||||
| Illinois | 54 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Missouri | 37 | 15 | |||
| North Carolina | 29 | 27 | 9 | 6 | |
| Northern Marianas | 9 | ||||
| Ohio | 66 | ||||
| Arizona | 58 | ||||
| Utah | 40 | ||||
| Colorado | 34 | ||||
| North Dakota | 1 | 10 | |||
| Wisconsin | 6 | 36 | |||
| American Samoa | 9 | ||||
| New York | 90 | 5 | |||
| Connecticut | 28 | ||||
| Delaware | 16 | ||||
| Maryland | 38 | ||||
| Pennsylvania | 17 | ||||
| Rhode Island | 11 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Indiana | 57 | ||||
| Total | 1014 | 562 | 154 | 173 | 28 |
Do not have final numbers from Missouri. Secretary of State’s congressional district numbers are missing the final report from 6 counties. Of those six, four do have splits reported on their local websites, but two do not. On the Democratic side, the splits do not matter. The two counties have few enough votes that — even if all of the Clinton votes were in one district and the Sanders votes in the other district — the delegate splits remain the same. Assuming that Clinton keeps the lead in the state, she will get 36 to Sander’s 35. If Sanders regains the lead during the certification process, he will get 37 to Clinton’s 34.
On the Republican side, seven congressional districts seem to be set with Trump taking 5 (25 delegates) to Cruz taking 2 (10 delegates). In the last district (the 4th) Cruz is up by about 1400 but the two counties without any split have about 8,000 Trump votes and 4,500 Cruz votes. How many of each candidates votes are in the 4th will determine who gets that district. Also the state-wide is recount close. So 17 Republican delegates are still up in the air.