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What's Going to Happen in Michigan Today?

by: DocJess

Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 06:04:10 AM EST


The polls are tight, and in a last ditch effort, Spawn of Satan has been robocalling Democrats. And yes, if you're a Michigan Democrat, you CAN vote today and in May in the Democratic process. Arizona is a done deal for Mittens, as there was a lot of early voting, but Michigan is still up for grabs. I was going to put up a tree picture, but the one I wanted to use is a photoshopped Mittens ad, so here's the link.

Before we go further, your opinion:

What I will be looking at tonight are the exit polls. Not so much for party affiliation, but for educational level. Spawn of Satan has made a big deal out of being the anti-education candidate. Which actually fits well with his overall belief system. I started thinking about it when I read two things. This was the first:

It’s become conventional wisdom to suggest that Rick Santorum, with his blue-collar background in Pennsylvania, will run strongly among these voters. “He has a big appeal to people we used to call Reagan Democrats,” said former Ohio Senator Mike DeWine. A recent Gallup poll showed Santorum leading Mitt Romney by double digits among Republicans without a college degree and making less than $90,000. Romney’s unfavorable rating among voters making less than $50,000 jumped twenty points in January, which Greg Sargent termed “Romney’s White Working Class Problem.”

The second is an article in the March issue of Philadelphia Magazine, called The Incredible Shrinking Man, and it's not online yet.  The article is about how men in their 20's lag behind their female counterparts in all sorts of objective measures like education, employment and income (although not video games and porn) and how many still live at home or accept financial support from their parents. 59% of men aged 18 to 24 live at home, 19% of those 25 to 34 do. 60% of parents give financial support to their grown sons, an average of $38,340 annually. If it were just the recession, it would affect both genders equally, or close to equally, but that's not it. According to the article in 1950, men made up 70% of the labour force, now it's 53%.  From the article: (page 64)

From 1960 to 2009, the number of working-age men with full-time jobs fell from 83 percent to 66 percent. In Philadelphia, half of all young adults are unemployed, but three in 10 young men ages 25 to 34 had stopped looking for work before the recession hit.  

We know that college populations are becoming more and more female. The stats:

Overall, women have surpassed men in terms of completing secondary and post-secondary education with the gender gap almost completely reversed. In 2006, 10.3% of males and 8.3% of females dropped out of high school. In 2005/2006, women earned 62% of Associate's degrees, 58% of Bachelor's degrees, 60.0% of Master's degrees, and 48.9% of Doctorates. In 2016/2017, women are projected to earn 64.2% of Associate's degrees, 59.9% of Bachelor's degrees, 62.9% of Master's degrees, and 55.5% of Doctorates.

Let's put this together. There is certainly a lot of causality for this situation: start with the idea that most elementary and secondary schools are more geared to girls than boys. Second, you need more education for more jobs nowadays than was necessary a generation ago when strength beat brains for most jobs. (Think farming, manufacturing, construction.) Third, there's the internet. The Philly Mag article points out that before Facebook, when men got out of school, they needed women to fill a social calendar. Not just dating, but parties and events. Now, they can keep in touch with friends from college and "the old neighborhood". Add to that video games, the ultimate time suckers, and finally porn. This affects men in terms of fertility rates and an inability to want to connect with real women, plus it's easily accessible and another time sucker. Some academics wanted to do a study of the affects of porn on men under 30 but they couldn't find a control group.

So today is the Michigan primary: an industrial state where a lot of the male voters will be older, whiter and pining for the world they inhabited when they were young. (Apologies to the Paul voters, who will certainly skew younger and are the exception, rather than the rule.) Will they send the primary to Rick Santorum who certainly is the embodiment of what they see is the world that was left behind? If this demographic abandons Mittens, what does that mean for his chances in November? And most importantly, what becomes of the men? Do they become so distant from politics, in addition to work and education, that we become a female-led society? If so, where are the women candidates at all levels? I'll be watching Michigan not just because it's Mitten's home state (okay, one of them) but because it's a microcosm of what is happening across the country. 

DocJess :: What's Going to Happen in Michigan Today?

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