Michigan and Arizona Delegate Results

MI Sec of State (0.00 / 0)

website seems to indicate that 6 CDs went for Santorum, and 9 to Romney. See http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/el...

Eric

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by: Eric @ Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 11:54:27 AM UTC

Confused... (0.00 / 0)

Now I am confused. Michigan has 15 Congressional Districts, and of course, 15 Congress members. Yet Green Papers, and here at Demconwatch, and probably other places, seem to indicate there are only 14 CDs... What am I missing?

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by: Eric @ Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 20:07:18 PM UTC

Michigan lost a seat (4.00 / 1)

It's based on the new lines, not last decade's lines.

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by: pretzalz @ Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 00:18:29 AM UTC

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Thanks! (0.00 / 0)

Makes sense now..

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by: Eric @ Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 10:06:00 AM UTC

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AZ Delegates (0.00 / 0)

Interesting report on NPR this morning.  Apparently AZ is in violation of the party rules with their "winner take all" because they moved their primary up.  This could be contested at the convention and likely changed if the race is still close

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by: tsal @ Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 20:10:43 PM UTC

Rules? Who needs Rules? (0.00 / 0)

This issue is very murky because of the ambiguity of the Republican rules (and Josh on his Frontloading Website has done a thorough job of explaining the unexplainable).

Basically, the Republicans passed two timing rules. 

The first rule bans any state from having a January contest, allow Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to have a February contest, and requires everyone else to go on Super Tuesday or later.  Despite the fact that the plain language of rule would appear to cover the first stage of caucus system (thus the need to include Iowa on the list), the RNC appears to be treating non-binding precinct meetings as not violating the rule.  Under their interpretation of this rule, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan and Arizona are in violation but Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and Washington are not (Nevada actually complied with this rule).

The second rule requires all states holding a contest prior to April 1 to use a "proportional" method for allocating delegates, but does not expressly define proportional.  However, the RNC has given guidance to the state parties on what it considers to be proportional.  Under the RNC definition, Florida, Arizona, and, perhaps, South Carolina are in violation. 

There is also an automatic penalty of the loss of one-half delegates (including the three automatic delegates) for violating the timing rules plus the option of additional sanctions.  So far, the RNC seems to be interpreting additional sanctions as loss of guess passes and being at the back of the line for pick of floor spots and hotels, but no additional loss of delegates. 

Because the convention is ultimately the judge of the rules and credentials, it is possible that there might be a challenge to the delegation from the three double violators.  (Whether South Carolina is a double violator is debatable.  Some read the rules as exempting the four approved early contests from the proportionality rule, but I am not seeing that in the plain language of the rules).

Assuming the convention insisted that these three states follow the guidance, the at-large splits would be about as follows:  Arizona (Romney 19, Santorum 10), Florida (Romney 30, Gingrich 20), and South Carolina (Gingrich 7, Romney 4).

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by: tmess2 @ Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 01:16:18 AM UTC

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Wyoming? (0.00 / 0)

What does this mean delegate wise?

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by: UplandPoet @ Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 12:46:57 PM UTC

Wyoming -- Only half the State counts (0.00 / 0)

Wyoming has the most bizarre rules for choosing delegates.

As with the majority of Republican caucus states, the presidential preference vote means nothing.  Those who stick around for the election of delegates to the county conventions get to pick those delegates without paying any attention to the results of the preference vote.  For example, if in a precinct Santorum got 20 votes, Romney 15, and Paul 10 in the presidential preference vote, but after that vote most of the Santorum and Romney folks depart leaving 5 Santorum, 7 Romney, and 9 Paul supporters, it woud be those remaining 21 who would decide how to allocate the 4 delegates from that precinct.

Then you get to the bizarre part of the Wyoming rules.  Wyoming allocates 12 delegates and 12 alternates to the 23 county conventions.  The largest county (Laramie) gets a delegate and an alterante.  Ther remaining 22 get either a delegate or an alternate.  Thus, in 11 of the 23 counties, Republicans only get to pick an alternate and have no input on the delegates.  Later the delegates elected at the county level get to elect the at-large delegates. 

Assuming that the plurality of the presidential preference vote gets to pick the 1 delegate from the county -- Romney carried 5 of the counties, Santorum carried 4 of the counties, and Paul carried three.  How that would translate into at-large delegates is anybodies guess.  (Since some of those counties are pluralities, there is also the possibility of weird shenanigans -- say the Paul and Romney folks pairing up to shut  Santorum out of delegates and split those four counties between the two compaigns.)

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by: tmess2 @ Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 00:56:44 AM UTC

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what fun! (0.00 / 0)

"fight for your right to be an alternate!" admittedly, most years, being an alternate is the same as being a delegate, because mostly you want to be invited to the convention where everything is pretty much rubber stamped, but on a year like this, it mighht be important to be able to vote at the convention!

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by: UplandPoet @ Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 09:35:42 AM UTC

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