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A Look at Today's Illinois Primary Delegates and Allocations

by: Oreo

Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 09:29:49 AM EDT


While today's primary in Illinois is no doubt a big one for Mitt Romney it is by no means going to end the nomination process.

The fact is that none of the 54 delegates being allocated today have anything to do whatsoever with the primary results. From The Green Papers:

This is a so-called "Loophole" primary (a Delegate Selection Primary combined with an Advisory "beauty contest" presidential preference vote). The popular vote in the Illinois Republican Primary will have nothing whatsoever to do with the presidential preference of the 54 separately elected National Convention delegates.

Each candidate for delegate ... must file a Statement of Presidential Preference supporting a specific presidential candidate, or a statement that he/she intends to run uncommitted [SBE No. P-1E]. Note: There is no law or rule officially binding the delegates to the candidate.

And as you read, all of the delegates are unbound.

Currently 2 of the 3 superdelegates from Illinois have endorsed Romney.

Stay tuned tonight as we sort out the allocation of unbound delegates.

Oreo :: A Look at Today's Illinois Primary Delegates and Allocations

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Strategic Voting (0.00 / 0)

If Gingrich was as smart as he thinks he is, and if Santorum had any organizational ability, you would expect to see some strategic voting in Illinois.

Santorum has no delegates on the ballot in four districts, so it would make sense to have his supporters vote for Gingrich delegates to keep those delegates away from Romney (in addition three of those districts are districts that Romney would be likely to finish first so working together would be beneficial).

These four districts would logically be the core of a statewide agreement where Gingrich and Santorum would agree to vote for slates composed of 1 Gingrich delegate and the rest Santorum delegates (giving a potential state-wide 30-24 split).

I am doubtful that these two campaigns have agreed on such a sensible proposal to game the system. 

As shown by some of the urban caucuses in Missouri, it is the Romney and Paul folks who understand strategic voting to guarantee a split of delegates and the Santorum folks who really want all or nothing.




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