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Signs of a Post-Convention Bump for Obama in the Polls

by: SarahLawrence Scott

Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 14:59:09 PM EDT


Gallup Daily is already showing a notable bounce in some metrics associated with the Democratic National Convention. Obama's job approval rating has spiked up to 52% compared to values which have been fairly stable in the mid-to-high 40's prior to both conventions. The poll is an average of surveys taken Tuesday through Thursday, so even Michelle Obama's speech is not yet fully included, and the speeches from Joe Biden and Barack Obama are not yet factored in at all.

Perhaps more surprisingly, Gallup Daily's U.S. Economic Confidence Index has also seen a spike, rising about 10 points as the impact of the convention start to get factored in. 
 
But what you really want to know about are the horserace numbers, right? Well, Gallup Daily computes that on a seven day basis, as opposed to three for the other measures. So the latest reading includes surveys taken from the Friday after the Republican Convention through yesterday. Thus there's no real sign of a bump there yet, because it's mixed together with any bounce from the Republican Convention. 
 
Observant readers may notice that I called the effect of the Republican Convention a "bounce" and the effect of the Democratic Convention a "bump." Only time will tell if that characterization is correct--that the point or two that Romney might have gained after his convention will fade while Obama will never look back.

Nevertheless, first impressions are that this was a very successful convention for Democrats, after a somewhat lackluster one for the GOP.  
SarahLawrence Scott :: Signs of a Post-Convention Bump for Obama in the Polls

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