Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.
The blue trend continued in the last week, as the forecast moved (barely) above 51 (from 50.6) for the first time this cycle. The big changes this week included FL and OH moving to DL in Rothenberg, MO moving to DL in Roll Call and Crystal Ball, VA moving to DL in Crystal Ball, IN moving to Tossup in Rothenberg, Crystal Ball, DKElections and RollCall, and ND, NV and WI all moving to T in Crystal Ball. There was some movement the other way in CT and MT, but the overall trend remained good.
The forecast for the Democrats is 51.0 seats, a loss of 2.0 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).
Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D) for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.
Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538