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2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 22:44:37 PM EDT


Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The trend remains positive, but just a small gain this week, as the forecast moved from 51.6 to 51.8, a loss of 1.2 seats from the current 53. In terms of range, you can see from the chart that Democrats have 41 Safe Seats, have an easy path, HI->MO, to 47, and have a potential highpoint of 57 seats.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Matt :: 2012 DCW Senate Forecast

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Newest Arizona poll ... (0.00 / 0)
The latest poll that came out Saturday has Carmona ahead of Flake  :)

Arizona Senate - Flake vs. Carmona
Behavior Research Center
Flake 40, Carmona 44
Carmona +4
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Fingers and toes crossed on this one!



? (4.00 / 1)
I have seen a couple of new polling groups this cycle:  Gravis Marketing, Behavioral Research.  Does anybody know anything about these groups.   I am not sure how much weight to put on a poll from someone without a track record.

Gravis: Generally Bad (0.00 / 0)
Here's a bunch of information - http://www.democraticundergrou...

I wouldn't take their numbers too seriously.


[ Parent ]
wow! they are not even in the same league with rasmussen! (0.00 / 0)
i wondered why their numbers were so out of line with the other polls and consistently out of line towards GOP. thanks for clearing that up!

i generally discount PPP and Ras, because of the their method and especially because of Ras' distorted results. but by comparison, both of them look like gallup or pew!


[ Parent ]


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