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2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

by: Matt

Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 00:01:39 AM EDT


Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Presidential forecasts in an easy overview table.

Not a big change, going from 291-247 to 287-251, but the post-1st-debate effects are clearly seen on the graph. Some of our forecasts (CNN, NBC, NY Times) haven't changed since the summer, while others (Huff Post, new to the DCW forecast), have states (e.g. NH going OL->T->OL->T) changing multiple times/day.

The consensus map remains at 237-191 with 110 Tossups (1st debate negative changes offset by addition of Huff Post forecast, which is pro-Obama). The consensus map is based on a majority of the forecasts for each state. Ohio is the tipping point state for Obama getting to 270+, but there are many states past Ohio which are Tossups and easily in Obama's reach.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.



Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times

Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments. 

Matt :: 2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

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I'll shoot from the hip first (0.00 / 0)
303 - Obama/Biden

235 - Romney/Ryan

I differ from RCP's No Tossup Map by giving Colorado to President Obama.


303 sounds good as a base number. (0.00 / 0)
I agree about Colorado, and I think they'll screw us in Florida. I see us getting Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa and I think we could get up to 314 if Arizona turns, as it might.  

i will seriously shocked if Fla doesnt stay blue! (0.00 / 0)
I just havent seen that many folks who have romney yardsigns or bumper stickers, of course i am in palm beach county, and we are the most democratic large population in the state (there are a couple of tiny counties that are more dem than us), still, i just dont get the sense that obama is losing in fla, the economy is picking up, house prices are recovering, mitt scares people. i see a close, say 52-48 split for obama here, not a 537 vote margin this time.

[ Parent ]
az ought to be a lot less sure that FLA, i could see us losing NC (0.00 / 0)
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

is this even close? or does it have too many right leaning biased polls?


[ Parent ]
Romney Signs (0.00 / 0)
Might be a good reason for not seeing signs. Here in Texas, driving around the past few weeks, I have seen Obama bumper stickers, I have seen anti-Obama bumper stickers, but ZERO Romney stickers. This area had a ton of McCain/Palin stickers and signs out in 2008. This year, most Texas Republicans hate that they have to vote for Romney, and are not visibly supporting him. But they will vote for him as an, as they put it, ABO vote (Anyone But Obama). Some will cast their ballots for Gary Johnson thinking Texas is a Safe Red. I think if the Latino vote comes out like it should in Texas, there could be a November Surprise...........

[ Parent ]
A Texas Acorn Allegory (0.00 / 0)
Speaking of Texas Republicans (aka nuts), there was a funny story on the Daily KOS.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

We have had a lot of acorns falling this year (real ones), maybe a few unexpected ones will fall in November (political ones)

At the very least it will be fun to vote Castro into Congress. He and his brother are impressive.


[ Parent ]


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