Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Presidential forecasts in an easy overview table.
Not a big change, going from 291-247 to 287-251, but the post-1st-debate effects are clearly seen on the graph. Some of our forecasts (CNN, NBC, NY Times) haven't changed since the summer, while others (Huff Post, new to the DCW forecast), have states (e.g. NH going OL->T->OL->T) changing multiple times/day.
The consensus map remains at 237-191 with 110 Tossups (1st debate negative changes offset by addition of Huff Post forecast, which is pro-Obama). The consensus map is based on a majority of the forecasts for each state. Ohio is the tipping point state for Obama getting to 270+, but there are many states past Ohio which are Tossups and easily in Obama's reach.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.
Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times
Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments.