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Do I get questions.....

by: DocJess

Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 13:17:36 PM EDT


I keep getting the question: where are the signs? If you are looking for signs, they ARE available. Contact your local Democratic organization, and they'll either have them, or direct you. If you're putting signs in your yard, please make sure to put up not just Obama/Biden signs, but those for Senate, Congress, and local elections as appropriate.

There's an old adage: if signs determined an election, Ron Paul would have been president for years. Signs are important on election day to help with enthusiasm. Signs in public areas are good for low information voters who go into the voting booth not knowing the names of the candidates. (Yes, it hurt to type that). And signs in yards are great to show where you stand. But signs cost money, and the money is going into TV ads and GOTV efforts. 

The second question I keep getting is about the polls. This morning in PA, the latest "poll" had Romney up 4, and Casey losing. Polls are "all over the place and I don't know what to believe...what is the truth?"

Here's the most important thing to remember:

THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS IS THE ONE ON ELECTION DAY.
VOTE.
GET YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY TO VOTE.
WORK THE ELECTION.

That said, and thanks, I feel better now, it's important to realize that there are many types of polls. Partisan polls, registered voter polls, likely voter polls, phone screens, internet polls, land line plus cell phone polls, tracking polls, push polls.

What I do is to check out Steve Singiser's column on Kos. He posts around 11 Pacific Time every night, shows all the data, and provides insight. I then draw my own conclusions. I try VERY HARD to ignore the toplines that end up as screaming headlines. 

I completely ignore the national data because I have a theory that Mittens and Eddie Munster are going to win higher percentages in red states then John Boy and Spunky did four years ago, and there's a lot of that noise infecting the toplines of the national data. I care much more about the non-partisan swing state polls: that's where we win or lose. 

Other questions I've gotten the last 24 hours:

Is it true that a kid from Phoenixville works for the RNC and got caught throwing a bag of Democratic voter registrations into a dumpster? Yes, that's true.

Is it true that Romney will create 12 million jobs? No, not in America, in China. Those 12 million are projected regardless of who wins. 

Is it true that Tagg Romney, in addition to wanting to punch out the president, owns the company that is being used for voting machines in part of Ohio? Yes, this is true, and the Obama administration (not the campaign, the administration) is on it. 

Keep those cards and letters coming in, kids...

DocJess :: Do I get questions.....

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Steve Singiser's Polling Wrap (0.00 / 0)
I find it very useful as well.  I just wanted to point out that I've never seen it posted as late 11 Pacific Time.  11EDT would even be a rare late posting, it is frequently closer to 8:30-9:30 EDT so it is certainly possible to read it before going to bed.  One point on how dailykos works, there is generally a delay of up to a couple of hours between when a diary is posted and when it is promoted on the front page[they like to spread out the front page promotions of diaries so one doesn't get accidentally buried].  So if you want to read it when it is posted look for it in the list of all diaries, or on the elections.dailykos.com subsite.  

Thanks for the timing info.... (0.00 / 0)
I'm a really early person, so I actually look at it around 4 in the morning when I get up. Sadly, I roll over in bed, open the iPad and it's my first check. Then I turn on the TV and catch Rachel.

By the same token, it was easy for me to volunteer for 4 a.m. Election Day sign duty!


what no cuddling the dog first? (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Signs (0.00 / 0)

My take on signs is that they have more of an impact in down ballot races as one way to improve name recognition.

Two stories from my part of Missouri.  With Robin Carnahan retiring, both parties candidates are relative unknowns in most of the state.  The Republican has done a mucch better job of getting signs out (though the Democrat is slightly better funded for the general having had no a relatively insignificant primary opponent to the Republic three-way attempt to out-conservative each other).  While the Republicans will almost certainly carry rural Missouri, the lack of signs for us is worrisome (the difference betweena 60-40 loss in rural Missouri and a 70-30 loss can be the election) as most of the media buys will be in the urban areas. 

On the other hand, we have a local county treaurere race that is also open.  Both candidattes have nice glossy posters with the candidates pictures.  Our candidate's signs are in Missouri black and gold.  Their candidate's sign is red and white.  Now for the kicker, their candidate wrote the office for which she is running in red on red.  You can read the office if you look very, very closely, but not if you are not paying attention.  Whether that will make a difference as low information voters lock their intent in before heading to the polls, I don't know, but it is somewhat amusing.  (What is not amusing is that the Republican candidate is the daughter-in-law of the Republican county auditor and the reason counties have a county auditor and a county treasurer is to have the two check each other to prevent fraud, but the family relationship is not known to most of the county outside of the courthouse.)




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