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2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 23:54:54 PM EDT


Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

A small backslide this week, as the forecast moved from 51.8 to 51.7, a loss of 1.3 seats from the current 53. The biggest mover was PA, which moved to DL in 3, for a total of 4, forecasts. In terms of range, you can see from the chart that Democrats have 41 Safe Seats, have an easy path, HI->MO, to 47, and have a potential highpoint of 57 seats.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.


Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Matt :: 2012 DCW Senate Forecast

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Indiana / Mourdock (0.00 / 0)
Looks like the chances of winning the seat in Indiana just went up  :)

GOP U.S. Senate Candidate Calls Rape Pregnancies A 'Gift From God'

NEW ALBANY, Indiana - At a debate this evening with his Democratic opponent Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Indiana GOP Senate candidate Richard Mourdock claimed that raped women should be forced to carry their rapist's baby to term because their forced pregnancy is a "gift from God":

   I believe life begins at conception. The only exception I have for to have an abortion is in the case of the life of the mother. I struggled with myself for a long time but I came to realize life is that gift from God, even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape. It is something that God intended to happen.

- snip -

Full article here: http://thinkprogress.org/justi...



Some of us had it leaning all along.... (0.00 / 0)
It was just a matter of waiting until he walked right into something like this. The really fun part is that it happened two days after TV ads went up with Romney endorsing Mourdock.

[ Parent ]


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