Welcome to the latest (and last?) edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Presidential forecasts in an easy overview table.
Only a small change, going from 287-251 to 285-253. As noted in many places, basically the race has changed little the last 4 weeks.
The consensus map moves from 237-191 to 243-206 with 89 Tossups. Changes: NV: T->OL, NC: T->RL, MO/IN: RL->R. Ohio remains the tipping point state for Obama to get to 270.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.
Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times
Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments.