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2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

by: Matt

Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 00:42:13 AM EST


Welcome to the latest (and last?) edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Presidential forecasts in an easy overview table.

Only a small change, going from 287-251 to 285-253. As noted in many places, basically the race has changed little the last 4 weeks.

The consensus map moves from 237-191 to 243-206 with 89 Tossups. Changes: NV: T->OL, NC: T->RL, MO/IN: RL->R. Ohio remains the tipping point state for Obama to get to 270.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.

 



Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times

Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments. 

Matt :: 2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

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303 (0.00 / 0)
It's my number, has been for a while, and I'm sticking! What do y'all think the final number will be?  

341 (0.00 / 0)
LOL

That's my original 303 plus Texas. ;o)


Prediction (0.00 / 0)

I would like 347, but will stick with 303.

Am projecting that Obama goes over 270 at 11:30 p.m. EST.  We should have the Senate majority well before that.

Unfortunately, fear we will not get the House until 2016.



We WILL win Florida! so 332, but failing that, 303 (0.00 / 0)
i think at 905 eastern we will have Obama relected, maybe we have to wait for the polls to close in CA first, makes it what 1005 eastern?

West Coast Polls (0.00 / 0)
West Coast Polls close at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.  Green Papers has a chart with full closing times.  Even if Obama wins every swing state, he could only get to 269 before the West Coast polls close.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but (0.00 / 0)
If he's won the swing states, 11 is just a formality for the networks. The blogs and twitterverse will have already moved on, to the Senate and House races, and to "what it all means".

You will see in our Election Results posts, which will go up at 4 tomorrow, we've already given Obama CA, and WA, and HI, etc. Romney has his sure states too. Just because a poll hasn't closed shouldn't prevent us from adding the numbers into the totals.


[ Parent ]


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