DCW 2016 Senate Forecast

Well the Senate is going down to the wire, but the bottom line hasn’t changed.  Assuming the Dems take over the seats in WI and IL, they need 3 additional seats from IN/NV/MO/NC/NH/PA. While WI has tightened up, the signs are positive in NV and PA.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts, including own own DocJess. The 3rd column shows a running total of Senate seats.

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State DCW CrystalBall WP Cook Rothenberg
Update 10/20/16 11/3/16 10/19/16 11/2/16 11/3/16
Dem-Strong D 10 10 8 9 9
Dem-Lean DL 3 2 3 1 1
Tossup T 5 5 6 7 7
Rep-Lean RL 0 1 4 3 1
Rep-Strong R 16 16 13 14 16
Dem ’16 Projection 14.2 14.9 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.5
Dem ’18/’20 Seats 36.0 36 36 36 36 36
Dem Senate Projection 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.2 49.9 49.5
Dem-Gain 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.5
CA (Open) D 37 D D D D D
CT (Blumenthal) D 38 D D D D D
HI (Schatz) D 39 D D D D D
MD (Open) D 40 D D D D D
NY (Schumer) D 41 D D D D D
OR (Wyden) D 42 D D D D D
VT (Leahy) D 43 D D D D D
WA (Murray) D 44 D D D D D
CO (Bennet) D 45 D D DL D D
IL (Kirk) R 46 DL D DL DL DL
WI (Johnson) R 47 D DL DL T T
IN (Open) R 48 DL T T T T
NV (Open) D 49 DL T T T T
PA (Toomey) R 50 T DL T T T
MO (Blunt) R 51 T T T T T
NC (Burr) R 52 T T T T T
NH (Ayotte) R 53 T T T T T
FL (Rubio) R 54 T RL RL RL RL
AZ (MCCain) R 55 R R RL RL R
OH (Portman) R 56 R R RL RL R
GA (Isakson) R 57 R R RL R R
AK (Murkowski) R R R R R R
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R
AR (Boozman) R R R R R R
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R
KS (Moran) R R R R R R
KY (Paul) R R R R R R
LA (Open) R R R R R R
ND (Hoeven) R R R R R R
OK (Lankford) R R R R R R
SC (Scott) R R R R R R
SD (Thune) R R R R R R
UT (Lee) R R R R R R
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