Category Archives: Delegate Count

Delegate Math 2020 — Wyoming

While waiting for the end of voting and results out of Wisconsin and Alaska, the next state up is Wyoming.  Wyoming was originally supposed to be a caucus state (with the caucuses to be held on April 4 with absentee votes included).  In light of COVID 19, the Wyoming Democratic Party has cancelled the in-person county caucuses/conventions and will be using a mail-in ballot (transforming the caucus into a party-run primary).

Because a substantial number of votes have already been cast (similar to the situation in Ohio), this primary will only be partially impacted by the decision of Senator Sanders to suspend his campaign.  Depending on the results in Wyoming and Ohio (which was already covered in the post on the March 17 primaries), we may or may not have further posts about the May and June states.  (if Biden wins Wisconsin, Alaska, Wyoming, and Ohio comfortably, I will probably not be doing any further delegate math posts as the exact count from the remaining states will not have much significance.)

As with Alaska, Wyoming will be using ranked-choice voting.  Thus, the final count will only include viable candidates meaning that there is no difference between total votes and qualified votes.  The ballots must be received by April 17.  The Wyoming delegate selection plan is ambiguous as to whether ranked choice voting is done on the county level (with state convention delegates being used to allocate the national delegates) or on the state level (with the popular vote being used to allocate the national convention delegates).  And the Wyoming Democratic Party has not announced a time when they will release the results from the mail-in ballots. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Alaska (Updated)

With things somewhat up in the air about Wisconsin, Alaska is the next state to complete its voting.  Alaska is one of the states that moved from a caucus to a party-run primary since the last cycle.  In response to Covid-19, the Alaska Democratic Party has moved to a vote-by-mail election.  Ballots are supposed to be received by April 10, and the state party will release the results on April 11.

Alaska is using a ranked-choice ballot with candidates being eliminated (starting with the candidate with the least votes) until all of the remaining candidates are viable.  With only two candidates still running, even if some small segment of voters who voted early have another candidate as their first choice, the final count after preferences are distributed should leave only Senator Sanders and Vice-President Biden with votes on the final count.  Under the rules for the primary, because only viable candidates will be left in the final count, there is no difference between the final total votes and qualified votes.

What makes delegate math unusual in Alaska is the fact that it is a single-district state.  Under the rules, the allocation of delegates is calculated separately for each of the three pools, but the state-wide results are used to allocate all three pools.  The fact that the pools are calculated separately gives a different result than if all the delegates were allocated as one pool. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Wisconsin (UPDATEDx3)

As of this moment in time, it looks like Wisconsin will be proceeding with their April 7 primary, sort of.  The sort of is that a judge has extended the deadline for mail-in votes which — under the ruling — can be mailed in after April 7 as long as the ballots are received by April 13.  It is unclear whether the various local election authorities will still be releasing the in-person vote totals on April 7 or if the results will be held until April 13.  [UPDATE:  This morning, the judge who granted the extension on mail-in ballots issued a revised order requiring the election results to be held until the afternoon of April 13.  Effectively, that makes the party-run primary in Alaska — ballots due on April 10 with results to be released on April 11 — the next set of results that we will receive, unless an appellate court sets aside the current order which is always a possibility.  UPDATE 2:  On Monday afternoon, the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order staying the District Court’s ruling.  Under this order, all absentee ballots must be postmarked by April 7 and received by April 13.  Apparently, results can be released after the polls close, but that is not 100% clear.  UPDATE 3:  The state election authority in Wisconsin has directed local election officials that they should not release results until April 13 under the part of the court order that was not stayed.  It is unclear how binding that is and some local officials may release results earlier than April 13.]

We are now officially down to two candidates.  And that makes delegate math relatively simple barring the unlikely event of uncommitted getting delegates.  Wisconsin has eight congressional districts with between five and eleven delegates each.  At the state level, Wisconsin has ten party leader delegates and nineteen at-large delegates.  Overall, Wisconsin has eighty-four delegates.

The Seventh District has five delegates.  Whomever gets the most votes will win at least three delegates.  To get a 4-1 split, the winner needs 70% of the qualified vote. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — The COVID 19 Break

Barring a statutory change at the federal level, federal law requires that states choose electors for President on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November.  While there are other provisions governing the possibility that states are unable to choose electors on that day and the states are free to change the way that they select the electors, it is unlikely that those laws will change — either at the state or federal level.  Likewise, federal law requires that elections for the House and Senate will take place on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November.    And the Constitution and federal law makes clear when the existing terms of office expire.

There are a lot of questions about what would happen if for some reason elections are postponed in some states.  Do the governors get to appoint temporary Senators in the states for which the term has expired until the elections can be held?  Are the elections merely postponed or must the governor’s call for special elections?  However, for President, what happens is governed by the Presidential Successor Act until somebody is chosen to fill the remainder of the term.  Of course as the Presidential Successor Act would put the Speaker of the House and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate into the White House, the question is whether the House and Senate will be able to convene as normal in early January to choose the people who will be in those positions if such a vacancy occurs.  If they can’t, do the old officers continue over until the House and Senate can convene (allowing one of them to become President)?

In short, while things still need to be worked out, it is more likely than not that some way will be found to hold elections this fall.  In the states that currently rely heavily on voting-by-mail, it is almost certain that the elections will proceed as planned.  And some of the remaining states may try to transition to a vote-by-mail system.  And if there is going to be an election for President, both parties need to continue with the process for choosing a nominee.  As others have noted for this site, there are questions about how the national convention will be restructured to deal with the current crisis and how the states will alter the delegate selection process in light of the current goal to minimize person-to-person crisis.  (I know that, in my state, the delegate selection process has been postponed by almost eight weeks.) Continue Reading...

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An Open Letter to Joe Biden

Dear Uncle Joe –

First, congratulations on winning South Carolina.

Sadly, HOW you won exposes the inherent weakness of your candidacy and how you can lose in November. Then again, knowledge is power and if you pay attention, you may yet be able to win in November, which is all any of us non-cult people care about. Continue Reading...

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Catching Up with TMess, and a Local Note

I don’t just blog here, I read, too. And over the past few days, TMess has posted some riveting information, and I learned tons! I agree completely with his take on the House (link), and learned about the upcoming international elections (link) which he keeps up with, and the rest of us really should since we’re part of the world. Oh! Canada! Touch blue, make it true (for those of you who remember the 70’s).

But what really fascinated me was his information on the 2020 delegate selection plans. (Link.) The most compelling tidbit related to the changes in how Iowa will calculate its delegates. Far different from how it was through 2016. It will be a real game changer, although the math will be tricky. Remember, folks, that no matter what the national polls say, “All Politics Is Local” and it’s those primaries and caucuses that will lead to the delegate count.

I do, however, take issue with TMess’ numbers. He says that approximately a third of the delegates will be chosen by Super Tuesday. And that’s been true in the past BUT this year is different, as is my math. There are two ways to calculate delegates: one is off the total number of delegates, meaning both pledged delegates and Super Delegates. That number is 4,532. And if that’s how one counts, then “approximately a third” is okay math – the actual number is 35%. HOWEVER, the Super Delegates are not chosen at primaries nor caucuses. They are already delegates. So when you subtract the 764 Super Delegates, math indicated 3,768 pledged delegates, meaning that the actual amount of chosen delegates by Super Tuesday is 42%. Not that much of a difference, but it’s closer to half than a third. Granted, some of the dates might shift, but having both Texas and California as Super Tuesday states is a big deal in terms of pledged delegates allocated. Together, they hold 17% of the pledged delegates. Continue Reading...

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Superdelegates and Pendulums

Reprinted with Permission

50 years ago, Democratic candidates were chosen by “The Party”.

50 years ago this week, at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, that began to change. There had been some primaries and caucuses in 1968,  of which Vice President Hubert Humphrey won a tiny amount, but “The Party” wanted Humphrey to be the party’s presidential nominee. They got that, and a whole lot of protests, and a disaster in November. Nixon won the Electoral College 301 – 191, with the remainder going to George Wallace. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math — Week of June 13

The end is finally here.

On the Republican side, the voting is over and the only delegate selection still to come is the South Dakota state convention starting on June 24.  Depending upon which count you use, Trump has slightly over 1,440 delegates who are bound to him by current Republican Party rules (and another 80 who are officially uncommitted who have pledged to support him).  Of course, every time Trump opens his mouth, some senior figure in the party begins longingly considering the power of the Rules Committee and the Convention to change those rules.  Whether Trump has enough loyal delegates to survive himself is unclear (and it is unlikely that the Republicans would take this extreme step), but Trump is the exact type of candidate who would justify throwing the rules out the window to save the party.

The Democratic side still has a little more work to do.  With the caveat that the count in California is not yet final, Secretary Clinton currently has around 2,180 pledged delegates to 1,797 delegates for Senator Sanders — a clear majority of pledged delegates (even if Sanders wins every delegate still theoretically up for grabs, he would still be approximately 300 delegates behind Secretary Clinton). Continue Reading...

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AP declares Clinton presumptive nominee

We expected this Tuesday evening, but it’s finally here, tonight:

Hillary Clinton has earned enough delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee, making her the first woman ever to win a major party nomination, the Associated Press reported on Monday night.

A combination of pledged and superdelegates put Clinton over the mark in her contest against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to the AP count. The news agency spent the day surveying superdelegates and updated its figures with those who said they were “unequivocally” for Clinton, according to AP Political Editor David Scott.

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Delegate Math Week of June 6 — Part 2 (California)

As discussed in part 1, the math in both parties has been relentless.  After last night’s results in the U. S. Virgin Islands, the Greenpapers has Clinton only 85 votes short of clinching the nomination in its “soft” count.  Barring a large number of superdelegates endorsing Clinton over the next forty-eight hours, today’s primary in Puerto Rico does not have enough delegates at stake (60 total) to put Clinton over the top, but the states discussed in Part 1 (New Jersey, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Montana) have more than enough delegates to put Clinton over the top.  Sanders is urging the media to remember that superdelegates can change their minds and depart from past practice by not declaring Clinton the nominee unless she wins enough pledged delegates to put her over the top (almost impossible).

With so few contests left, it is all but certain that Clinton will win the pledged delegate count.   Even the attempt to win additional delegates in the later stages of caucus states is not going well.  While the Washington Democratic Party has only posted the names of the delegates elected by the Congressional Districts (not the candidates that they are supporting), they have announced the allocation for the state-wide delegates (which is based on the breakdown of the Congressional District delegates).  Based on that allocation, Clinton won between 17 and 19 delegates at the Congressional District level (post-precinct caucus estimates had her winning 18).    In the other states that have already held first-tier caucuses, there are only 48 delegates still at stake (with Sanders having a 28-20 advantage).    (6-2 in Idaho, 7-8 in Iowa, and 15-10 in Nebraska).  Gaining more than five delegates from these states is unlikely, and adding it to the potential gain of 1 in Washington, Clinton would still have a 261 delegate lead heading into Puerto Rico.  Since for reasons discussed previously, Sanders is probably going to have a net loss of delegates between Puerto Rico and the other states on Tuesday, Sander’s outside hope of significantly closing that gap come down to California.

Continue Reading...

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