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Category Archives: Elections
The Midterms — Preview (Part 1)
We are into the home stretch of the campaign. This election comes down to those who want to protect women’s rights, LGBQT rights, our democracy, the middle class, and the safety of our streets on one side against those who want to undermine the concept of free and fair elections and impose an authoritarian theocracy on the other side. The midterm elections are more like parliamentary elections in other countries. There is no national race and winning is about the results of multiple state and local races.
As in 2020, there is expected to be a large number of votes by mail. Some states have changed their laws to allow counting of mail-in ballots to start earlier, but some still require the process of verifying and counting mail-in ballots to begin on election day. So there will be some states in which the Republican candidate will take an early lead based on the in-person votes, but the Democrat candidate will close that gap (and potentially take the lead) as the mail-in votes are counted. On the other hand, in states that announce mail-in and early voting results first, the opposite will occur.
These previews will go in the order of poll closing times. In states that are in two time zones, some states will release results as polls close. Others will hold off on releasing results until all polls close. If I know that a state holds off until all polls close, I will put the state in the time when the last polls close. Otherwise, I will put the state in when the majority of the polls close. I will list the time by Central Standard Time as that is my time zone. For ease of conversion, CST is UTC +8 (i.e. it is 8 p.m. UTC when it is noon CST), Atlantic ST +2 (2 p.m AtST for noon CST), Eastern ST +1 (1 p.m. EST for noon CST), Mountain ST -1 (MST 11:00 a.m. for noon CST), Pacific ST -2 (PST 10 a.m. for noon CST), Alaska ST -3 (9 a.m. AkSt for noon CST) and Hawaiian ST -4 (8:00 a.m. HST for noon CST).
Tagged Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia
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The Fall Campaign
Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media). If that was ever true, it no longer is. With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August. If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.
But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October. (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins. While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.
But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns. The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks. For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate. Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House. The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult. The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process. Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal. And the lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change).
Also posted in General Election Forecast
Tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, Florida, Georgia, Herschel Walker, House of Representatives, J.D. Vance, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Raphael Warnock, Ron DeSantis, Ron Jonhson, Senate, Wisconsin
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2022 Primary Season Part 2
Tuesday marks the unofficial start of the second part of primary season. Problems caused by redistricting have altered the normal calendar. with many states going out of their usual order. Normally, there is a good break between the Spring primaries (typically ending by mid-June) and the Summer primaries (typically starting in early August).
Maryland which starts off the Summer primaries this week is a good example of that. It was supposed to be at the tail end of the Spring primaries. Instead, it got moved back three weeks. It and the postponed state runoffs in North Carolina the following week are serving as a bridge between what is typically a five to six week break between the two halves.
The regularly scheduled primaries start the following week with Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington on Tuesday (August 2) and Tennessee on Thursday (August 4). Arizona, Michigan, and Missouri all have races on their ballots which are best described as total chaos on the Republican side. Michigan may be in the worst shape as several of their strongest candidates for Governor failed to make the ballot leaving a real clown car of a race. The results from these three states will help frame the big question on the Republican side for this fall — how off the rails full on Trumpist will the Republican candidates be this fall. The Democrats in same of these early states have our typical establishment vs. the Squad vs. Bernie Sanders vs. working class populism battles. That struggle will also help define what the issues will be in the fall.
Tagged 2022 elections, Liz Cheney, Primaries, Ron Johnson
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The News from London
The U.S. system is somewhat unique in that we have regularly scheduled elections with a regularly scheduled process for choosing candidates, mostly by means of elections open to most voters. Other countries do things differently. Many countries are parliamentary systems with the Prime Minister being a hybrid of the U.S. President (in terms of power), the U.S. Speaker of the House (in terms of being officially chosen by the whole House and removable by the whole House), and Majority Leader of the Senate (in terms of being removable by the majority of the majority party).
In recent weeks, the Trumpish Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, has been bogged down by scandals. Last week, the heat got too high for many members of the Conservative Party, and an open revolt forced Boris Johnson to agree to resign. Under the British system, this means that the Conservative Party has to choose a new leader who will then become Prime Minister.
There are no formal rules for this type of leadership election and, when this situation occurs, it falls to the Conservatives in Parliament to draft the rules that will apply to this election. This time, they have chosen a rather expedited process. The rules were announced just yesterday.
Tagged Boris Johnson, Conservative Party, United Kingdom
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The Most Dangerous Branch — End of Term Reflections
In the Federalist Papers, the Judiciary was called the “Least Dangerous Branch.” The thought was that the Supreme Court relied on the other branches to follow through on court orders. However, in our legal system, court orders are usually obeyed. And, between gerrymandering, filibusters, and the equality of the states in the Senate, it is very hard to get the types of majorities that allow real change in the “political” branches. Courts, however, simply require a majority to act. And the relentless campaign of the far right has left us with a Supreme Court that borders on being as political as any other branch of government. That is not to say that every decision is political. There are lots of legal issues that are not partisan in nature. And there are some issues that split conservatives. However, on this Court, when there is a clear partisan divide over an issue, the result is a foregone conclusion regardless of what the true facts and precedent dictate. The last week of the term gave us three cases in which Senator Mitch McConnell’s abuse of Senate rules resulted in rulings that we would not have gotten in 2015.
The first case is Kennedy v. Bremerton School District. What makes this case significant is that this case is ultimately about what version of the facts one chooses to belief. The normal rule is that appellate courts take the facts as found by the lower courts or in the light most favorable to the lower court. In this case, however, a major conflict between the two opinions is their characterization of the facts. The majority sees the practice of the petitioner — a public high school coach kneeling on the football field at the end or the game — as a private act of worship. The dissent (and the lower courts) saw the act as a public display by a government employee in the course of his employment. The normal practice when the case is this fact-dependent and the facts are unclear is to “dismiss as improvidently granted.” Instead, the majority picks and chooses the disputed evidence that supports the legal rules that it wishes to establish notwithstanding compelling evidence supporting a contrary reading of what happened. In doing so, the Supreme Court announces that the Lemon test for the Establishment Clause has been discarded (as well as other tests for an Establishment Clause violation) and replaced by (wait for it) a historical analysis of what would have been considered an establishment of religion. It should shock nobody that this approach means that very little will be a violation of the Establishment Clause. With the Establishment Clause neutered, that just leaves the Free Exercise Clause and the Free Speech Clause. Given the fact that the Supreme Court has greatly expanded the impact of these two clauses, the end result for the forces of protecting the rights of Christian Theocrats over the rights of everybody else is a foregone conclusion.
The second case Oklahoma v. Castro=Huerta. This case involves criminal jurisdiction on tribal lands in Oklahoma. Several years ago, in a 5-4 decision (with Justice Ginsburg) on the Supreme Court, Justice Gorsuch and the four liberal justices ruled that no treaty or act by Congress ever formally disestablished the native reservations in Eastern Oklahoma even as non-Natives bought the land on the reservation. As such, the lands were still legally part of those reservations. Under federal statute, crimes by natives against natives on reservations have to be tried in tribal court or federal court (depending on the offense). The new case involved crimes against natives by non-natives. With Justice Barrett instead of Justice Ginsburg, there were five votes against tribal authority and in favor of state authority. As such, the majority — thanks to a rushed confirmation by Senator McConnell in the fall of 2020 — found that Oklahoma also had the authority to try such cases in state court. Now, both this decision and the earlier decision are based on statutes. In theory, Congress could fix the laws related to the relationship between tribal authority and state authority to fix the issues brought out by cases (or actually appropriate the money to hire enough prosecutors, public defenders, and judges to handle a large number of cases on tribal lands in Oklahoma), but the deadlock in Congress makes this highly unlikely.
Also posted in Climate Change, Judicial
Tagged 2020 Redistricting, Alabama, Chevron deference, Environmental Protection Agency, Establishment Clause, Free Exercise Clause, Free Speech Clause, Independent State Legislature doctrine, Justice Ginsburg, Justice Gorsuch, Justice Jackson, Louisiana, major questions doctrlne, Mitch McConnell, North Carolina, Voting Rights Act
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Lessons From the January 6 Committee
Looking at the highlights from the January 6 Commitee hearing this week, there were two key takeaways from this week hearings — both related to the vote counting process.
First, as anybody who has been involved with campaign at any level knows, votes are not instantly reported at the same time. Instead, election results roll in as precincts turn in their results and counties count absentee and “federal” ballots (ballots case by military and overseas voters that just cover federal and statewide elections). More importantly, results by precinct and by county are not random — either in timing or in the vote counts. There is a regular patten by which results are reported and an expected result by precinct and county.
To use my home county for an example, it is a small county that typically has between 12,000 and 15,000 votes. While the exact number of precincts has changed, it has always been between 15 and 20 precincts. In the years that I have lived, there have been changes. We have gone from a central counting process in which the ballot boxes in each precinct were just ballot boxes and the counting machine was in the courthouse to a precinct counting process in which the ballot boxes are also counting machines and the central counting part of the process is simply downloading the results from each precinct and adding the results together. This change has speeded up the process (as the county election authority no longer has to run 15,000 ballots through the counting machine and reset the machine for each precinct) and we typically have the full results by 8:30 p.m. (ninety minutes after the polls close) rather than 11:00 p.m. Additionally, the results are posted on-line as soon as the printout of a precinct’s result can be scanned and uploaded thereby eliminating the need to sit around the courthouse waiting for a copy of the printouts. But what hasn’t changed is that there is a rough sequence in which the precincts are reported. In most elections, the first precincts to report are the smaller towns close to the county seat (in the north central part of the county). Those precincts get to the courthouse first because they are only 5-10 minutes away from the courthouse, and — given their small size — they tend to have few people in line at 7 p.m. and can quickly get to the process of closing the precinct and packing up the ballots and counting device to take to the courthouse. On the other hand, the five large precincts in the southeast and southwest of the courthouse tend to be the last ones to get to the courthouse as they have the furthest to go and tend to have lines at 7 p.m. (and thus take longer to close as the closing process does not begin until the last person has voted). In short, while the exact sequence may change some from election to election (as the exact time when the election judges get to the courthouse depends on how long the lines are).
Also posted in 2020 General Election, House of Representatives
Tagged blue shift, January 6 Hearings, red mirage, vote counting
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Australia Election
As more states are considering moving to some form of ranked-choice voting, this weekend is a chance to look at the original home of ranked-choice voting — Australia. There are certain differences between how ranked choice voting works in Australia and how it is likely to work in the U.S.
The big difference between the two systems is that, in elections in which Australia uses ranked-choice voting, there are only two election contests — each of which has a separate ballot. Because there is only one race on each ballot. There is no need for trusting computer programs to accurately read the preferences and allocate them for the House of Representatives. (The Senate uses single transferrable vote which is more complicated and does require computer assistance.)
Second, Australia does not have party primaries. Candidates are chosen by party committees (which can sometimes backfire when the national party forces a candidate on the local party). and it is not difficult for small parties to get on the ballot. In most of the states using ranked choice, they either have ranked choice for party primaries or have a “top four” primary with ranked choice reserved for the general election.
Tagged Australia, Environment, Ranked Choice Voting
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The 2022 Elections: Revenge of the Trumpists
We are on the eve of the start of the first big segment of the primary season for the 2022 election. Texas had its primary back in March, but primary season really starts this Tuesday with primaries in Ohio and and Indiana.
Including the Texas run-off, there are primaries or run=offs set for every week between now and June 28 other than the week of Memorial Day. During that period, a grand total of thirty states will have primaries or run-offs (with some having both). There is normally a longer breaker between the Spring primaries and the late Summer/early fall round of primaries. But due to postponed election dates, Maryland will have its primary in mid-July and North Carolina will have its run-off on July 5 or July 26, depending on the offices which require a run-off. Phase two of the primary season begins on August 2 and runs through September 13.
Mid-term elections are tough for the party in power. The public always want the big problems solved instantly. And big problems are typically years in the making and will require years to solve. Making things worse, the party that wins an election always tries to pass what their primary voters want (which is not the same as what general election voters want) but ends up with in-fighting between the various factions of the party. It has been a long time since any party has won by a big enough margin to be able to pass legislation despite those differences.
Also posted in General Election Forecast, House of Representatives, Senate
Tagged 2022 Primary Elections, Ohio, Pennsylvania, redistricting
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French Election — Round 1
Continuing the international politics theme from last week, this Sunday is the first phase of the French presidential election. It’s only the first phase for two reasons. First, France uses a runoff system (the runoff will be in two weeks). Second, France has so many political parties that there is no chance of anybody getting a majority in the first round. For the presidential election, there will be twelve candidates on the ballots.
Unlike in Australia, where the competition is mainly between a center-left party and a center-right party with minimal differences on international issues, there is a wide range of views of the role of France in international politics and Vlad the Destroyer’s minions have certainly been trying to influence the chances of the candidates with disinformation campaigns.
While he is not certain to win the run-off in two weeks, most observers expect the incumbent President, Emmanuel Macron, to make the run-off. He has led every poll with about 25-30% support. In terms of international issues, Macron sits firmly in the camp that has dominated France for the past fifty years — for lack of a better name, strong France internationalism. The basic gist of French foreign policy is that France is an active participant in working with other major democracies to build an international consensus on issues, but France certainly looks out for its own interests in those negotiations and is willing to say no to its allies or go it alone when it has to.
Tagged Emmanuel Macron, France, Jean Luc Melenchon, Marine Le Pen
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Australian Politics 2022 Style (Updated)
International Election season is fast approaching. Today’s post is on Australia. As of today, we do not have an exact date for the election in Australia, but we are pretty sure that it will be May 7, May 14, or May 21. Or to be more exact, we are certain that Australia will have a Senate election on one of those three dates, and are 99% certain that there will be a House election on the same date.
As with other countries, it is not that any one thing about Australia’s elections is unique. It’s how these features combine that make it unique. In this case, the issue is the different rules for Senate elections and for House elections. For Senate elections, there are some similarities between how the U.S. and Australia structure the Senate. In both countries, each state gets the same number of Australia (twelve per state in Australia with the territories getting two seats each), the terms for Senators elected from the states are six years (with the term for territorial senators in Australia being three years), and terms are staggered. What this means is that, every three years, Australia has a half-Senate election (six senators per state and the territorial senators). Unlike the U.S. there is no set date for a Senate election. Instead, it can be called for any time in the last year of the term (although the winners do not take office until the new term begins). As the new term begins on July 1, the last possible date to hold the election (and be certain that the results will be finalized) is May 21. And, at this point in time, even if the election were called the second that this post goes live, the earliest that the election could be held would be May 7 (but if the election is not called by Monday, that date would no longer be available).
On the other hand, while there are some similarities with the U.S. House, the Australian House is more like the Canadian House. The House is composed of districts (Division in Australia) which are apportioned to the states based on population. Like the U.S. House, there is a minimum number of Divisions (five) per state. Currently, the only state which gets extra seats under this rule is Tasmania. Unlike the U.S., which only reapportions every ten years, in Australia, this reapportionment occurs after every House election. If a state’s total number of seats changes, or any districts (called Divisions in Australia) are too large or small (i.e. outside the permitted deviation) or seven years has passed since the last time that the lines have been redrawn, a non-partisan committee of civil servants redraws the lines for that State. Australia’s term length for the House is three years — exactly in the middle between Canada and the U.S. However, like in Canada, that term is only the maximum term, and the government can call an election early.
Tagged Australia, Ranked Choice Voting, Single Transferable Vote
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