Category Archives: Sunday with the Senators

Sunday with the Senators: Moscow Mitch’s Calculus

By DocJess | Published October 13, 2019

You may have wondered why Moscow Mitch allowed for a vote to release the whistle blower complaint, and then publicly announced that if the House voted to impeach, the Senate would hold a trial according to established rules. For starters, he’s underwater, with an average -23 favorability. That’s right — that’s average, the latest polling shows him at -24, or 30 favorable/54 unfavorable. He’s got a real challenge running next year against Amy McGrath. There’s no public polling yet, but she’s a strong candidate, and while she lost her last Kentucky race, that gives her the experience necessary to overcome any errors, and let’s face it, while 2018 was a wave, there’s a chance 2020 may be a tsunami. In addition, she raised close to $11 million in Q3, more than most 2020 presidential candidates. Moscow’s numbers for Q3 aren’t out yet, but he had about $7 million CoH at the end of Q2, so she might have bested him.

Mitch didn’t get where he is without being able to read polls, and the constant uptick in voters favoring impeachment has got to be giving him the willies. While there is a dearth of state-by-state numbers, the numbers in favor of the inquiry rise daily, including among Republicans, Evangelicals and white men without college degrees — and that’s not just the Orange Menace’s base, it’s Mitch’s too.

Jeff Flake has said that if there were an impeachment vote in the Senate that was secret, 30 – 35 Republicans would vote to oust General Bone Spurs. But secret isn’t going to cut it, and Moscow Mitch knows that. Thus, he’s keeping his options open. Because his calculus is whether he can, first, keep his seat, and second, hold the Senate in 2020. And those are his only concerns. (No, sorry, folks, he doesn’t actually care about law or history.) Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Let’s Talk Maine

By DocJess | Published August 18, 2019

I have a gut feeling that we can retake the Senate. One of the seats that is definitely on my list is Maine. So let’s take a deep dive into that race…as you certainly know, the incumbent is anti-choice, Bret-Kavanaugh-enabler Susan Collins, who has held her seat since 1997. On the plus side, as I’ve pointed out many times before, she makes great blueberry muffins and passes them out at constituent events. And um…..that’s it, the upside is the muffins.

On the other side, she’s just plain bad news. She wasn’t always this way, but she’s now. She’s got a primary challenger in Derek Levasseur, He’s challenging from the right and says that Collins isn’t supporting Trumpkin enough. He launched a few months ago and has raised about $7,000. At first, I thought I read it wrong and he raised $7 million, but then I put my glasses on and saw it’s $7 thousand. All of that money is from individuals who gave less than $200 each — on the bright side for him, that translates into votes. On the downside, he spent all the money and is now $2 grand in the hole.

Collins, meanwhile, has about $5.5 million CoH, and receives about a quarter of her funding from PACs. But is money everything? Her polling is fascinating. she is now the second lowest polling Senator. The only Senator hated more than she is #MoscowMitch. Read all the juicy details here. But let’s say she gets through the primary, she’ll still need to face a Democrat, and, this being Maine, some third party folks. And remember, Maine has ranked voting. Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Moscow Mitch

By DocJess | Published August 4, 2019

After the recent Democratic debates, there was a lot of chatter and whining about Moscow Mitch being the stumbling block to the enactment of any legislation a new Democratic president might want. Cognitive dissonance, kids, they’re missing the point. Moscow Mitch is not assured re-election, nor a Republican Senate. In either of those cases, he becomes a non-issue. So let’s see how we could make that happen.

The current makeup is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. There are 34 seats up for election, of which 22 are held by the Republicans. Therefore we need to win three seats with a Democratic president, and four if the Orange Menace stays in the White House. Below is a map that shows the “consensus view” of the seats that are up (greyed out states have no contest next year barring resignation or death) and you can click at the bottom of the map and make your own predictions.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

So here are some thoughts: right now, Beto O’Rourke has an 11 point lead on the giant Cheeto in Texas. He lost to Ted by 2.6 points last year. It’s completely possible that if he gave up the pipe dream of successfully running for president in 2020, he could beat Big John. In Colorado, Cory Gardener’s seat is eminently winnable by John Hickenlooper, and he is not going to make the September debate stage (at last count, he had fewer than 14,000 donors, and polling under 1%). But he could beat Cory. And Mark Kelly (astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords) has a real shot in the special in Arizona. So, by my math, that’s three. And my fourth is Kentucky. If Amy McGrath can raise $10 million (yeah, you read that right) she can beat Moscow Mitch. It will take a message honed for Kentucky, and an incredible amount of money for a ground game never seen before in the state, but it’s doable. I don’t know how the Maine primary will turn out, but if Sara Gideon takes it, Susan Collins will be able to dedicate more time to making muffins with those blueberries she grows. (And while I hate her politics, I have it on good authority that she makes awesome blueberry muffins and hands them out at constituent events. And yes, sigh, that’s one of those little tidbits you don’t get from the MSM.) Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Can we win it back?

By DocJess | Published September 2, 2018

I’ll spare you the suspense — if a number of things break well, yes, we can. Let’s dig in.

We have a good shot at picking up four seats: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Will we get all four? Let’s assume no, but that we pick up three. That takes us to 52, less any seats we lose. The question in Arizona, Nevada and Texas is whether millennial and Hispanic voters come out in droves. The Hispanic population of Tennessee is 5%, so that would make a difference only in the closest of races, but the Hispanic populations of Arizona, Nevada and Texas are 31%, 29%, and 39%, respectively. Note that is only population, not voters. The percentage of registered Hispanic voters in all those states is lower. Still, those are election-changing numbers. Plus, “Hispanic” is not a monolithic voting bloc. However, in the era of families separated at the border, the rescinding of passports of American citizens, and the horror of how the incumbent fascist regime treats and speaks about Hispanics, and it may well get people to the polls.

Add to that the number of people who want a check against Trumpkin in the Senate, as well as the regular base of Democratic voters, and we’ve got a real shot. If it was possible to turnout millennials, and we’d for sure be over the top. Millennials are huge in number, but their turnout levels in the past several elections has been less than stellar. BUT – this year we have the “Parkland Effect” – many people turning 18 this year are energized (and registered) and that could make a difference, especially in Arizona and Texas where age distribution skews young. That’s true to a slightly lesser effect in Nevada, and not a consideration in Tennessee. Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Saturday Edition

By DocJess | Published October 22, 2016

Vote by JessWe’re 17 days out from the election, and while the main event seems like a foregone conclusion, the Senate is pretty much a nail-biter. Matt will have the Senate race rankings up tonight and we’ll see the specifics, but first, a little context, and a race that no one is looking at, which may actually delay knowing who controls the Senate until 10 December.

Let’s play. We need a net of 4 seats to take back the Senate, assuming that Secretary Clinton wins the general, and thus Tim Kaine would be the tie-breaker. Based on current projections, we’ll pick up Indiana, Wisconsin and Illinois. Will we hold Nevada? Maybe. If we do we need one more, if not, we need two. The likeliest options should be Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Should be. Could be. The data indicate that if Secretary Clinton wins by 7 points in Pennsylvania and 6 points in New Hampshire, her coattails will be enough. I have been following New Hampshire from a distance and it appears very close. Ayotte is constantly tied to Trump in ads. For some reason, a lot of politicians don’t seem to get that everyone has a phone, and thus video capabilities, and when you call Donald Trump “a role model” that’s going to make the ads even if you disavow some of his actions. A lot will depend on how much money is poured into the ads in the next couple weeks. The polls have been tied, and just yesterday WMUR said that Hassan is 8 points ahead: is it an outlier or has the die been cast?

Pennsylvania is so tight there’s no daylight in the polls. Brooklyn knows this and that’s why both Clinton and Kaine will be in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia today. Should be noted that Secretary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, Senator Kaine, President and Mrs. Obama, Vice President Biden and even Bubba the Big Dog have all been here. Upcoming in the next two weeks, Anne Holton (Senator Kaine’s wife), Jill Biden, Jon Bon Jovi and Katy Perry.  It seems as though the street closure information is an almost daily occurrence on the traffic reports. Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Pennsylvania

By DocJess | Published August 7, 2016

McGinty_ToomeyThe candidates are Pat Toomey, the incumbent junior Senator vs. Katie McGinty, most recently Chief of Staff for Governor Tom Wolf. In the interest of full disclosure, I know Katie: she lives nearby and we’ve run our dogs together. I don’t know Pat Toomey, although as a constituent, I often call/write his office to complain. Okay, that’s that, now let’s get down to brass tacks.

As I mentioned last Sunday, most people (namely pollsters) see this as a toss-up, but I see Katie winning. If you look at the RCP average, it would look like a toss-up, with the candidates being essentially tied with one point either way, well within the margin of error.  Cook has it as a toss-up, as does Sabato, and I could go on. But they’re wrong. Part of the issue is that the polls have been steadily moving from Pat being up by 7 – 10 points, but the margin keeps shrinking. Part of that was due to the fact that he had a lot of name recognition, and Katie had much less.

Generally, it’s a good thing that people know who you are, but this isn’t working out so well for Pat, who may be known, but has an overall -9 approval rating (30/39) and when asked whether people would be more or less likely to support him if he continued obstructionism related to Merrick Garland, that increased to 23/40 or -17. Franklin and Marshall has McGinty at 25/25, because the electorate is just starting to get to know her.  From that same poll, which is also the most recent, having been run from 7/29 – 8/1, has Clinton at -2, Trump at -29, and their matchup at Clinton 47%, Trump 34% and Gary Johnson 7%. Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Framing 2016

By DocJess | Published July 31, 2016

US SenateCurrently, the Senate has 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. 34 seats are up this year, of which 24 are GOP and 10 are Democratic. The math says…we need five.

Let’s play.

Here are the seats. For those of you who are new to this, they are ranked from Bright Blue – Safe Democratic, Medium Blue – Likely Democratic, Pale Blue – Lean Democratic, Yellow- Toss-up, Pale Red – Lean Republican, Medium Red – Likely Republican, and Bright Red – Safe Republican. Continue Reading...

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