Category Archives: Uncategorized

Census Update — Chaos is Coming

By tmess2 | Published February 13, 2021

On Friday, we got the latest update from the Census Bureau on the 2020 Census.  And it was not good news.

Earlier, we had learned that the current target date for release of the national numbers (broken down by state) is April 30.  Assuming that the Census Bureau meets that target, the formal release of the apportionment figures (how many seats each state will have in Congress for the next five cycles) will probably come out in mid-May.  And, of course, the census block level numbers that the states need to actually redistrict would come out later.  That was already bad news as it meant that many states will need special sessions of their legislatures to draw the lines for the 2022 election.

On the good side, however, given the delay in the numbers, the Census Bureau went ahead and released the geography files for the states.  As of yesterday, the files have been released for all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.    Thus, software programmers for redistricting programs can now update their programs with the new geography.  But the geography is only half of the data that these programs need.  The other half is the actual numbers showing the population for each census block. Continue Reading...

Comments Off on Census Update — Chaos is Coming

Census Shenanigans

By tmess2 | Published January 17, 2021

In theory, a President is still President with the full powers of the office until the last second of the term.  In practice, the powers of a president in the last weeks in office are somewhat limited.  Any legislative priorities that could not get through the previous Congress are unlikely to be rushed through by the new Congress.  (In fact, most times, Congress will spend much of the seventeen days between January 3 and January 20 in the necessary work of organizing rather than focusing on legislation.)

On the foreign policy front, it doesn’t take a Michael Flynn violating the law for our allies and adversaries to know that any decision made by the outgoing president can be quickly reversed by the new president.  In short, the outgoing president really is unable to make the type of long-term commitment that would encourage another country to make a deal.

So that leaves a president with actions that can be taken by the president alone.  Not surprisingly, the typical president is giving final approval to regulations and giving pardons and commuting sentences.  The enactment (or repeal) of regulations is a time-consuming process under the Administrative Procedure Act, and the new Administration is unable to simply set aside the last minute regulations.  (In part to deal with this problem, it is possible for Congress to reject these regulations.)  And a pardon or commutation is irreversible. Continue Reading...

Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Census Shenanigans

A Look Back at Conventions Past

By tmess2 | Published August 29, 2020

Over the past fifty years, we have seen a massive change in how political conventions are structured.  A large part of the change is the result of the ever-changing rules for delegate selection.  If you look back at, for example 1976, a large number of delegates came from states that did not have binding preference votes.  And, even in the states with binding preference votes, uncommitted still got a decent number of votes.

While by the time of the conventions, the party had generally reached a consensus about the nominee. the structure of these conventions mostly tracked the fact that the convention would decide the presidential nominee.   As such, each of the four days was ultimately about party business.  Monday was about organizing the convention.  The main business was the credentials and rules reports that, upon adoption, would allow the convention to get its business started.  The highlight of the evening was the keynote speech that set forth the party’s view of the nation and its issues.  Tuesday was about the party platform.  Typically, that evening would see a series of speeches from party leaders about the key “planks” of the platform.  Wednesday was about picking the party’s presidential nominee — nomination speeches and the roll call.  Finally, on Thursday, the party would pick the vice-presidential nominee (again nomination speeches and the roll call) followed by acceptance speeches from the vice-presidential and presidential nominee.

The fact that the nominee is now determined entirely by the result of the primaries has changed the structure.  Today, rather than party business defining each night, party’s tend to have “themes” for each night.  With platform fights all but a thing of the past, we have moved the presidential nomination to Tuesday night and the Vice-Presidential nomination to Wednesday night so that we can have the VP nominee accept on Wednesday night.   (One benefit of this change is the end of the risk that the process of choosing the VP could bump the Presidential candidate out of prime time on Thursday). Continue Reading...

Tagged | Comments Off on A Look Back at Conventions Past

Census Sabotage

By tmess2 | Published August 9, 2020

Most of the Constitution consists of “cans” and “can’ts.”  There are only a few “musts” — things that the government has to do.  One of the big musts is that, at least once every ten years” the government must conduct the census — or, as the Constitution phrases it in Article I and the Fourteenth Amendment, an enumeration of the whole number of persons in the United States.  The sole exception to being counted is “Indians not taxed.”

Now despite this plain language, Republicans do not like that persons includes those who are not citizens, particularly those who have not lawfully entered this country.  While the total number of unlawful immigrants is small, they tend to be concentrated in urban areas that elect Democrats.  (Of course, this tendency is offset by the large margins by which Democrats win urban areas.)   While there may be some electoral college disadvantages to not counting unlawful immigrants, Republicans have tended to conclude that the advantage in terms of the U.S. House and state legislatures outweighs any electoral college disadvantages.   Despite this clear command, the lawbreaker-in-chief has issued a memorandum asking the Census Bureau to exclude unlawful immigrants from the count used to apportion the House of Representatives.

Aside from the lack of legal authority for this directive, it is also unconstitutional.  Most of the arguments that I have seen out there supporting this position are simply misplaced.  Yes, other countries use different mechanisms for apportioning their legislation (for example, many use registered voters), but that is a policy argument supporting a constitutional amendment.  Policy arguments over what the Constitution should say (whether about redistricting or the electoral college) does not alter what the Constitution actually says. Continue Reading...

Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Census Sabotage

Is postponing the Dem convention to mid-August an option?

By Matt | Published March 28, 2020

As long time readers of DCW know, the party in the White House gets to have their convention second.  This is just an unwritten understanding between the two parties, and has been in place since 1936.  Convention junkies also know that when the Summer Olympics are scheduled in mid-summer, the earlier convention will often be in mid-July, and the second convention in mid/late August.  2020 shows this perfectly, with the Dem convention scheduled for July 13-16, the GOP convention scheduled for Aug 24-27, and the Summer Olympics in between scheduled for July 24 – Aug 9.

Except, the Olympics are now postponed to 2021.

Which leads to the question, could the Democrats postpone their convention a month to the week of Aug 17, to allow the COVID-19 situation to stabilize? (I would note, they could have done this even if the Olympics were not cancelled, but it was the cancellation that led me to consider the move). Continue Reading...

Comments Off on Is postponing the Dem convention to mid-August an option?

Dems start to look at convention options

By Matt | Published March 27, 2020

Political conventions don’t lend themselves to social distancing:

Top Democrats are actively considering a range of contingency plans for the party’s July convention, multiple top Democrats told CNN, including possibly shortening the in-person portion of the gathering or going entirely digital.

The planning, a result of the coronavirus pandemic, is in its earliest stages and party officials said there is no deadline for convention organizers to begin to shift plans. But Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez and other top party officials have begun to solicit guidance from advisers about the future of the convention, Democrats told CNN. Continue Reading...

1 Comment

State conventions will be affected by COVID-19 before DNC in Milwaukee

By Matt | Published March 3, 2020

While the questions of how COVID-19 will affect the conventions in Milwaukee and Charlotte this summer are being asked, and the answer is, it’s way too early to tell, the state conventions where many delegates are picked will be affected first:

On Monday, state party chairs raised concerns on a conference call with DNC officials that party functions, including the election of delegates to the national convention, could be disrupted or delayed because of coronavirus fears.

“It is serious. The question for state chairs is, look, we all have to put on conventions coming up. Most of the delegates to the national convention are elected at [state] conventions. What happens if state parties have to cancel these events where delegates are elected?” said Ken Martin, chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and a Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee. “If things continue to evolve, It could dramatically alter the contest and severely hamper Democrats as we try to unify our party.” Continue Reading...

Tagged | 1 Comment

Two leaders of Host Committee fired

By Matt | Published February 14, 2020

In case you missed this during the Iowa fiasco last week:

The two leaders of Milwaukee’s host committee for the 2020 Democratic National Convention are out.

Late Tuesday, the board for the Milwaukee 2020 Host Committee terminated President Liz Gilbert and her chief of staff, Adam Alonso. The move comes just one day after the board suspended the pair and launched an investigation into “toxic workplace” allegations. Continue Reading...

1 Comment

Iowa Delegates Final (for now)

By Matt | Published February 9, 2020

The Iowa Democratic Party has released a new set of caucus results, and it seems like they will stand, regardless of any errors that still remain. Here is the breakdown:

BidenButtigiegKlobucharSandersWarrenTotal
CD1220217
CD2020327
CD3130228
CD4121105
At-large130329
PLEO120115
Total614112841

This does not include the 8 Iowa superdelegates who can not vote on the first ballot (unless the nomination is already decided)

Also posted in Delegates | Comments Off on Iowa Delegates Final (for now)

Notes from your Doctor: nCoV Update 2_2_20

By DocJess | Published February 2, 2020

There are now more than 100,000 suspected cases of nCoV worldwide, the majority in China, but the number of confirmed cases is less than 20,000. The count of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries is updated hourly by the folks at Johns Hopkins at this link.

There are a lot of medical and public health concerns, but there are also political and economic affects that will impact all of us whether or not we ever come in contact with 2019-nCoV.

But first…since my first post on this a week ago, I’ve heard from people who are starting to panic. Now is NOT time to panic. It’s time to be smart, to ignore the falsehoods about this illness, and to follow standard infection controls that you should be following anyway….when it’s time to panic, I’ll let you know. So, NO this is not a bioweapon, and NO you can’t get it from drinking Corona beer, and NO there is no specific treatment made from saline solutions. You can check the list of all the fake news on 2019-nCov here. Continue Reading...

Also posted in 2019-nCoV, Notes from Your Doctor, Public Health | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Notes from your Doctor: nCoV Update 2_2_20