Tag Archives: Germany

The German Election Result and What It Says About Europe

Last Sunday, Germany held elections for the lower house of its parliament.  Given the mixed-member system that Germany uses, German elections are not immediately conclusive.  The results merely set the terms for the negotiations that will follow over the shape of the government.  But the election results do reflect the changes in Europe over the last 50 years.

The short version of the results is that the Social Democratic Party (the junior partner in the current government) made significant gains at the expense of the Christian Democratic/Social Union (the senior partner in the current government) and is now the largest party in parliament (206 seats vs. 196 seats).  The Green Party made significant gains to move from sixth place to third place (now at 118 seats).  The Free Democrats gained some seats but due to the big gains by the Greens stayed in fourth place (now at 92 seats).  The Alternative for Germany fell from third place to fifth place dropping eleven seats (now at 83 seats).  Finally, the Left lost about half of its seats to drop from fifth place to sixth place (now at 39 seats).  While the numbers have shifted, the essential facts of political life remain the same.  The only potential two-party majority is a grand union between the “Union” and the Social Democrats and a three-party coalition that features only one of the two largest party would require both the Greens and the Free Democrats (as the Left and the Alternative for the reasons noted below are not preferred options).

Hopping into the wayback machine, however, todays results would be unrecognizable to the German voter who voted in the 1980 election.  Back in 1980, West Germany was primarily three parties — the Union, the Social Democrats, and the Free Democrats.  At that time, the Free Democrats were essentially the balance in the center between the Union and the Social Democrats.  The Free Democrats had the power to decide who would form the government and used that power to keep either of the other two parties from shifting to far from center.  Over the 1980s, prior to unification, the Green Party formed and rivaled the Free Democrats for third party status. Continue Reading...

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Mid-Summer Hodgepodge

The last couple of weeks have had a mix of news that leaves so many possible topics for a post (and some may get a follow-up).

First, before taking their August recess (or in Congress-speak “District Work Period”), the Senate passed the infrastructure bill and the budget resolution that will be the basis for a reconciliation bill when Congress returns.  The House will take up these two items when the House returns.  Progressives want to table the infrastructure bill until the reconciliation bill passes (to force moderates to support the reconciliation bill).  Moderates want to finish up the infrastructure bill before something that happens that could doom that bill.

Second, the House will also be voting on the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act.  As expected, in the aftermath of this year’s Supreme Court decision in Brnovich undermining Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the bill has been expanded to fix both Section 2 and reinstate the preclearance requirements struck down in Shelby County.    While there will almost certainly be changes in the House, the real debate will be when it gets to the Senate.  The Republicans will attempt to block this bill, and it will be up to a handful of Democratic Senators to balance whether protecting the rights of African-Americans and other minority voters matters more than protecting the filibuster. Continue Reading...

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Election Update

May and June were significant months for elections, both in the United States and Europe.  While the news media tends to overhype some elections and ignore others, there are some conclusions that can be drawn from those elections.

Starting with the United States, the big news has been a series of special elections — focusing mostly on three Congressional seats held by the Republicans.  Neither party can be particularly happy with the results at the Congressional level, but certain things need to be noted.

First, except when caused by death or sudden resignation due to scandal, most vacancies occur in what the parties consider to be “safe” seats.  With the exception of the upcoming special election in Utah, the special elections for the House are all the results of an executive of their own party “promoting” the member of Congress to an executive office.  In California, you have to go back to 2012 to see the last time that a Republican even ran in the 34th district.  The four Republican seats were solid wins for the Republican incumbents in 2016 with the closest margin being 16% in Montana.  All five of these districts were double-digit wins for their party’s candidate in 2012.  The only district that was arguably winnable by the “out” party was Georgia 6 and that is only if you looked solely at the 2016 presidential election.  By the partisan vote index, Georgia 6 is still R+8, meaning that the Democrats would need to get around 58% nationally to win that seat. Continue Reading...

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