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Tag Archives: Iowa Caucuses
While vote totals are not irrelevant to presidential elections (especially in the primary phase when trailing candidates quickly find that they lack the financial resources to continue), what ultimately matters is not the popular vote, but winning delegates (for the primaries) and electors (for the general). The delegate math heading into the Iowa Caucuses are different for the two parties for two reasons: 1) the stage at which delegates are bound and 2) the two parties do proportional representation differently.
Yesterday, I posted about my personal experience at an Iowa caucus. Today, a discussion of what will happen this year at the caucuses, and the impact of different scenarios going forward.
I’d love to do one of those columns like the arts folks do for the awards shows, as in “will win/should win/honourable mention” – but this is DCW and we don’t take sides on contested Democratic primaries. So we’ll stick to just the facts as we know them today, 18 days out.
We all talk about the caucuses – who will attend, which party the caucus-goers will choose, who will win what percentage of the vote. But you don’t often hear about what it’s really like to attend one.
I attended a caucus in Iowa in the 1980’s. Being from New York and having worked campaigns, petition drives, and for the party, I had this arrogant view that the caucuses would be “quaint”. I couldn’t have been more wrong.
Pre-caucus thought: gentle people having somewhat informed conversations over tea and cookies.