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Tag Archives: Nevada
Presidential Primaries — South Carolina, Nevada, and Virgin Islands
Over the next week, we will have four/five primary contests for the two parties. (Four if you only count the binding contests, five if you count the beauty contests.) This list includes the first two sanctioned contests on the Democratic side.
First up is today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina. South Carolina is a little bit different from the rest of the country. While South Carolina has a state-run primary, it allows the parties to choose the date of its own presidential primary. As a result, it is not unusual for the two parties to choose different days. (That flexibility allowed the Democratic National Committee to place South Carolina at the start of the primary schedule.) The Democrats will hold their primary today, but the Republicans will not hold their primary for another three weeks.
As with most other states, the Democratic primary is essentially multiple primaries at the same time. There are, effectively, two state-wide primaries — one for at-large delegates and one for “pledged party leader and elected officials” (PLEO) delegates. Meanwhile, there is a primary in each congressional district. Voters will cast only one vote, but it will be counted in each of the relevant contests. For each of these races, the key number is 15%. Any candidate who gets 15% will get at least one delegate from that pool of delegate.
The 2024 Primary Process
The advantage of being the party in power is that you can make changes to your rules about your presidential nomination process without worrying about which potential candidate will benefit. Barring the unlikely event that President Biden does not seek the nomination, he will be the Democratic nominee regardless of the rules. So these changes will not impact who will win the nomination in 2024, and 2028 is way too far away for anybody to guess who will be running in 2028 much less who benefits from the changes.
First, as always, the nomination process is a battle between state laws and national rules. And, under the First Amendment, as interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court, the national party rules for choosing the national presidential candidate prevails over state law. Of course, while the states are unable to bind the national party, the states do set the rules for who appears on their general election ballots. As of now, no state laws designate anybody other than the national nominees as the presidential candidate of that party (and no state party has refused to certify their national candidate).
Second, the two parties have different rules. Both sets of rules involve potential penalties for states that violate the rules. In the past, the two parties had similar rules on timing of primaries. But this time, thanks to the Democrat’s changes to the list of states that can go before the first Tuesday in March, the list of potential February contests is not the same for the two parties. And each party has potential penalties for states that violate their rules.
Posted in 2024 Convention, Delegates
Also tagged 2024 Primary Calendar, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina
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The Midterms-Preview (Part 4)
By 9 p.m. Central ST, we will be getting some results from the early states which will give us some idea of how the night is going with a strong emphasis on the some. As noted in Part 1 of this series, every state treats the counting of mail-in votes. In some states, like Missouri and Texas, mail-in votes are likely to be the first results reported. In other states, like Michigan, those votes are likely to reported after the election day results. And for election day results, precinct sizes (more importantly the number of voters per election judge) and other factors have historically resulted in longer lines at closing time in urban area. When combined with the number of precincts in urban areas, in early states, rural areas are likely to report a greater share of their results in the first couple of hours. Both of these factors distort the conclusiveness of early vote counts (which is why the best analysts start looking at what vote is still outstanding — both where that vote is and the total number of votes — in forecasting whether it is possible to call the race). But by this time of the evening, there is some hint at the level of turnout in the areas that tend to vote Democratic and the areas that vote Republican and which way swing areas are swinging.
In turn, this information gives us some idea of the accuracy of pre-election polls. In viewing pre-election polls, there are three things to remember. First, in viewing them, you should focus on two things — margins and the size of the “undecided” voters. In every poll, there will be some undecided voters (and, because voters tend not to want to waste votes, the supporters of third-party candidates should be treated as undecided as a significant share of them will move to one of the two major candidates by election day). Because undecided voters will not split 50-50, a large pool of undecided voters makes the margin less reliable. An eight percent lead with ten percent undecided is more likely to hold than a twelve percent lead with twenty percent undecided. On the other hand, it is likely that both candidates will pick up some undecideds. So both candidates are likely to end up with something higher than their last poll number. Second, in looking at the margin, every poll has a margin of error (typically between three percent and four percent). That margin of error applies to each candidate. Which means, in theory, that even a well-constructed poll can be off on the margin by six or seven percent.. Part of the error is that every pollster has their model on who is likely to vote and how to weight responders to overcome response bias. Some years the actual pool of voters is bluer than the model shows and in other years the actual pool of voters is redder than the model shows. Finally, a poll is a snapshot in time. Events occurring after the poll is taken will move a small percentage of voters (both undecided voters and voters who were tentatively supporting a candidate). In short, it is highly probable that the polls will be off by some margin. And while the direction and size of the error will not be uniform nationally, the early returns can give an idea of the direction and size of the error.
As things stand four days out, the polls seem to be indicating a red ripple which will switch a narrow Democratic majority in the House to a narrow Republican majority in the House. The Senate could go either way and the hold of state offices could swing either way as well.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged 2022 elections, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah
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The Fall Campaign
Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media). If that was ever true, it no longer is. With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August. If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.
But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October. (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins. While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.
But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns. The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks. For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate. Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House. The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult. The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process. Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal. And the lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change).
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, Florida, Georgia, Herschel Walker, House of Representatives, J.D. Vance, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Raphael Warnock, Ron DeSantis, Ron Jonhson, Senate, Wisconsin
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Redistricting — Nevada
Over the past decade, Nevada has been a slightly bluish swing state. Most of the Democratic base is in Clark County (Las Vegas) with an outpost in Washoe County (Reno) Of course, Clark County represents the majority of the state’s population. As a result, while state-wide elections are close, Democrats actually have the majority in the state legislature. And that means that this time around, Democrats will control the redistricting.
Before discussing the possible new lines, it is important to note one potential issue with the numbers that I am using. Besides the normal caution that, until the 2020 census numbers are released, we are relying on the 2019 population estimates, Nevada has a complicating factor. In almost every state, prisoners are counted as living in the prison for redistricting purposes. This gives a little bump to the rural counties that tend to want to have prisons and hurts the urban areas that are the source of many of the prisoners (as crime is associated with population density). In Nevada, we are talking an approximate prison population of around 10,000 with around half being in rural parts of Clark County and the other half being in other parts oft the state.
While it looks like the population growth was mostly in Clark County, because of the population movement within Clark County, the First District (Las Vegas) actually is projected to have the lowest population of the four districts — needing around 50-51,000 more people. On the other hand the Third District (southern Clark County) is around 68,000 overpopulated. Since the Third District is a toss-up district, the goal will be to move some Republicans from the Third to the First.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives
Also tagged 2020 Census, redistricting
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2022 Elections — A First Glance
The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided. And two years is a long time in politics. But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.
The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats. But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats. As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past. In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander. And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races. And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier. In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term. But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.
The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted. This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies. Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base. But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged Alaska, Arizona, Census, Florida, Georgia, House, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, redistricting, Senate, Vermont, Wisconsin
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Electoral College
One of the often misunderstood aspects of U.S. elections is how the popular vote relates to the election of the President. While, in the majority of the states, the ballot simply lists the candidates for President (along with the Vice-Presidential running mate), voters are effectively voting for a slate of electors. The winning slate in each state then assembles on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December at the location and time designated by that state. After assembling, the electors for the state cast a vote for President and a vote for Vice-President. The votes are then counted, and the electors complete six certificates of vote recording the votes of the electors for that state. Each certificate of vote is paired with one of the previously completed certificates of ascertainment. Federal law then directs what happens with the six certificates of vote with one going to the President of the Senate (in practice, the clerk of the Senate), two to the national archives, two to the secretary of state of the individual state, and one to the federal district court for that state.
Normally, the meeting of the electoral college is a big ceremonial event. With Covid-19 and the potential for protests to get out of control, it appears that most of the states are planning on holding scaled-down events.
The fringe element of Trump supporters (and President Putin) are hoping for some last minute drama for Monday, but that is practically impossible for several reasons. First, earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld state laws requiring electors to vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged. While states have different laws on so-called faithless electors, the net effect of those laws is that sixty-nine Biden electors are from states that replace an elector and cancel the electors vote if the elector fails to follow through on their pledge, sixty are from states that fine the elector, seventy-one are from states with pledges but no enforcement provision, and one hundred six are from states with no law on this issue. That means that, at most, there are 237 Biden electors who could defect.
Posted in 2020 General Election, Electoral College
Also tagged Arizona, Donald Trump, electoral college, Faithless Electors, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Supreme Court, Wisconsin
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A recount primer
We are now moving into the universe where aside from spinning fictional conspiracy theory, Donald Trump is, for all practical purposes, down to recounts to keep his slim hopes of avoiding an orange jump suit alive.
As with everything else about this election that we have talked about over the past three weeks, the basic rules for recounts are set by state law. So looking at the states in which Trump is most likely to ask for a recount, here are the rules.
Arizona — In Arizona, the margin must be less than 0.1%. Any such recount is automatic, and a candidate is not able to request a recount. Assuming a final vote total of slightly under 4 million votes, the margin would have to slip under 4,000 to have a recount. Apparently, in Arizona, the recount is done by rerunning the ballots through counting machines.
Posted in 2020 General Election
Also tagged Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, recounts, Wisconsin
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Election Night Preview — Part 4 (10 PM to 11 PM EST)
It is very highly unlikely that we will have a projected winner when the clock strikes 10 on the east coast. Mathematically, it’s possible as by 10:01 p.m. polls will officially be closed in states with 450 electoral votes. But, practically speaking, it would take all of the toss-up states that have closed before then to have enough votes counted that the networks felt comfortable projecting them, and they would all have to go the same way. Even in years like 2008, enough of the Democratic vote is in states in which polls close at 10 or 11 p.m. EST, that it would take flipping states like Texas and Georgia to have a shot at reaching 270 before 11 p.m.
Looking at 2016, the first battleground state — Ohio — was called at 10:36 p.m. Depending on how things play out with mail-in ballots and early voting, some of the battleground states might get called faster, but others are likely to be called much later.
In this hour, we will have partial closures in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon. In North Dakota and Idaho, the majority of the population is in the part of the state that closes. As such, we will get a good idea about the state from the precincts that have closed. On the other hand, only a tiny part of Oregon will close at 10 p.m. and all of the key races will have to wait another hour. For North Dakota and Idaho, none of the races are expected to be particularly close. So those contests should be called shortly after 11.
Posted in 2020 General Election, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah
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Ranked Choice Voting and the Primaries
As the year comes to a close, we are approximately five weeks from the first votes of the 2020 election. This post is to highlight one of the new features of this election — that several states will be using ranked choice voting. (As described further below, Nevada will be using ranked-choice voting to allow early voters to participate in the caucuses. Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming will be using ranked-choice voting in a party-run primary. Maine will be using ranked-choice voting in a state-run primary.)
In the past, we have had something similar to ranked choice voting in some of the caucus states. Typically, many of the caucus states allow attendees to realign after the first vote if their preferred candidate does not receive enough votes to qualify for a delegate. Of course, when this process occurs at a caucus, the attendees have some idea of where the candidates currently stand and have the ability to negotiate delegate slots in exchange for moving as a bloc. (Even at the handful of remaining caucus, the ability to make deals will be greatly reduced. In the past, it was possible — for example — for Richardson supporters to move to Edwards in exchange for a pledge that one of the delegate slots would go to a Richardson supporter who would be a free agent at the county convention. Under the new rules, the national delegate allocations are locked after the precinct convention significantly reducing the value of such delegate deals.)
Ranked choice voting requires voters to decide in advance whom they would support if their candidate is not viable. For the most part, there has not been large support for moving to ranked choice voting in general elections in this country. For a variety of reasons, the two major parties are more dominant in the U.S. than in most other countries. (For example, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia all held parliamentary elections last year. In those elections, the two main parties had a combined vote total of 67-76% of the vote. By contrast, in the 2018 house elections, the two main parties had over 98% of the vote. Even at the low point of the 1992 election, the two main parties combined for over 80% of the vote.) The absence of significant votes for third-party candidates means that — most of the time — the winning candidate in U.S. elections gets a majority of the vote in their district. (Again for comparison, in the 2019 elections abroad, the winning candidate only had a plurality in about one-third of the districts in the United Kingdom, and about two-thirds of the districts in Canada and Australia. By contrast, combining the House, the Senate, and state-wide races, the winning candidate in the 2018 elections in the U.S. only had a plurality in 28 contests — less than five percent of the races. )
Posted in 2020 Convention, Primary Elections
Also tagged Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Ranked Choice Voting, Wyoming
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