Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

November 2023 Elections

In the U.S., in something that would be a surprise to the Franers, the presidential election has become the “main” election.  Turnout is always highest for the presidential election.  But that is not the only only election, and other elections can be even more important.  To save money, most states have their statewide elections coincide with federal elections (either the presidential election or the mid-term election).  But a handful of states have taken a different approach and hold their elections in odd-numbered years.  In addition, many states (while holding the elections for state offices at the same time as federal election in even-numbered years) hold local elections in the odd-numbered years.  And most states, even if November in odd-numbered years is not a “regular” election date keep it available as a potential election date for special elections and propositions.   This year, the November election will feature several big races.

At the state-wide office level, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky hold their elections for governor in the year immediately proceeding the presidential election.  Louisiana is a little different because it holds a “jungle primary” which is actually an open general election (i.e. no party primaries) with a runoff if nobody gets 50%.  This “primary” election was several weeks ago, and the Republicans picked up the governor’s office in Louisiana.  Given that Louisiana is a deep red state, this pickup was not too surprising as it takes the right Democrat to have a chance at winning and the incumbent Democrat was term limited.  The new governor is a right wing extremist, and we will probably be hearing a lot of nonsense out of the Pelican State for the next eight years.

But the races for Governor in Kentucky and Mississippi will be on Tuesday.  (At least the initial vote will be on Tuesday as Mississippi has a runoff provision if nobody gets to 50%.)  The governor in Kentucky is a Democrat and the governor in Mississippi is a Republican.  Both are favored to be reelected but the challengers in both states have chances at pulling an upset.  In Kentucky, the challengers big advantage is that he is a Republican.  But the Republican candidate has been a controversial figure as Attorney General, and the Democratic incumbent is popular which might be just enough to hold onto the office.  In Mississippi, the Governor has gotten entangled in some scandals and the challenger happens to be a member of a famous family even if that fame was over 50 years ago.  But Mississippi is still a deep red state.  In short, the most likely outcome is that there will be no changes, but it is also possible that either or both states could flip. Continue Reading...

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The Midterms — Preview (Part 2)

The first states with polls to close are mostly in the Eastern Time Zone.  In the early states, we have two governor’s races (Georgia and Florida), four Senate races (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio), and seven House seats (1 in North Carolina, 3 in Ohio, and 3 in Virginia) that could be close.  There are also several seats that are likely to flip solely because of the new maps (4 flipping red in Florida, 1 flipping red in Georgia, and 2 flipping blue in North Carolina).

But the big closing time is 7 p.m. Central ST.  The remaining polls will close in Florida, and most of the polls will close in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  And all of the polls will close in Alabama (except for a very small portion that closed an hour earlier), Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.  In short, when added to the states that close before 7 p.m., the polls will be closed in roughly half of the country by 7:01 p.m. (Of course, polls closed merely means that individuals need to be in line to vote at 7 p.m.  Because there are typically people in line to vote, voting might actually continue in some urban precincts for a very long time after 7 p.m. which will delay counting in those areas.)

Starting with Alabama, there are no races that are likely to be close at the state or federal level.  If the Supreme Court follows the Voting Rights Act, Democrats will probably pick up an additional seat in 2024, but the current maps which a district court correctly held violated the Voting Rights Act is in place for the 2022 election, and the 6-1 Republican advantage will remain in place for the next Congress.  There are a lot of propositions on the ballot in Alabama, the most significant of which requires changes to election law to be adopted at least six months prior to a general election. Continue Reading...

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The Fall Campaign

Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media).  If that was ever true, it no longer is.  With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August.  If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.

But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October.  (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins.  While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.

But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns.  The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks.  For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate.  Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House.  The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult.  The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process.  Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal.  And the  lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change). Continue Reading...

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Supreme Court Update

The last week was both busy and quiet on the Supreme Court front.  The Supreme Court handed down eleven decisions reducing the number of pending cases to eighteen with two weeks to go.  Only two of the cases were medium big, and the really big cases will be decided in the last two weeks.  With the Juneteenth holiday, the Supreme Court will be releasing opinions tomorrow (Tuesday) and Thursday.  For the last week of June, Monday will be an opinion day.  Depending on how many opinions are left after June 27, there will probably be additional opinions on June 29 and, maybe, June 30.  Expect Dodds and New York State Rifle to come the week of June 27.

This week, the two big decisions were in American Hospital Association v. Becerra and Arizona v. City and County of San Francisco.  Both of these are bigger for what they did not say than for what they actually held.

American Hospital Association involves the rules for hospital reimbursements for Medicare.  For years, conservatives have been challenging a judge-made rule (Chevron deference) which dictates that courts should uphold reasonable rules implemented by administrative agencies based on a reasonable interpretation of statutes.  So far, the U.S. Supreme Court has not officially overruled Chevron.  Instead, they are whittling it away through decisions like American Hospital Association.  The courts are doing this by narrowing the field of what is a reasonable interpretation of statutes. Continue Reading...

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The 2022 Elections: Revenge of the Trumpists

We are on the eve of the start of the first big segment of the primary season for the 2022 election.  Texas had its primary back in March, but primary season really starts this Tuesday with primaries in Ohio and and Indiana.

Including the Texas run-off, there are primaries or run=offs set for every week between now and June 28 other than the week of Memorial Day.  During that period, a grand total of thirty states will have primaries or run-offs (with some having both).  There is normally a longer breaker between the Spring primaries and the late Summer/early fall round of primaries.  But due to postponed election dates, Maryland will have its primary in mid-July and North Carolina will have its run-off on July 5 or July 26, depending on the offices which require a run-off.  Phase two of the primary season begins on August 2 and runs through September 13.

Mid-term elections are tough for the party in power.   The public always want the big problems solved instantly.  And big problems are typically years in the making and will require years to solve.  Making things worse, the party that wins an election always tries to pass what their primary voters want (which is not the same as what general election voters want) but ends up with in-fighting between the various factions of the party.  It has been a long time since any party has won by a big enough margin to be able to pass legislation despite those differences. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Pennsylvania

By the end of the process, redistricting in Pennsylvania may come down to which of two prior district maps is the baseline for the new maps.  Currently, the Republicans control the state legislature while there is a Democratic governor.  While I will leave it to those on the ground in Pennsylvania to discuss what the chances are for a compromise map, if the legislature is unable to pass a map that the governor will sign (as happened in 2018), the responsibility for drawing the new map will fall on the courts.

In drawing new maps, courts tend to use the existing map as a baseline.  Because Pennsylvania is losing a seat, there will need to be significant adjustments, but courts are likely to be somewhat neutral as far as which party benefits from the changes.  But the issue is which map is the starting point.  In 2011, when Republicans controlled everything, they drew a very partisan map.  The Pennsylvania courts struck down those maps on state law grounds in 2018.  The interim maps drawn by the courts are still in effect due to the failure of the legislature to come up with a new map.  Because the 2018 maps are more neutral, Democrats would benefit if the courts start with the 2018 maps.  For this reason, it would make sense for Democrats to file a preemptive case in state court.  Simply put, the state courts are more likely to start with the 2018 maps as the U.S. Supreme Court has held that, in drawing remedial maps, federal courts should start with the last legislatively drawn map and make only the changes needed to remedy the violations.

Besides the general issues of which district(s) will be split in two (or three) to balance out the rest of the state, there are two other matters which could impact the lines.  The first of these matters is the race for the U.S. Senate.  As of now, no member of Congress has entered the race for Senate.  There are a handful of House seats that are, at least on paper, swing seats.  The individuals holding those seats have the decision of whether they want to continue to have to fight every two years to hold those seats or if they want to take the chance at winning the Senate seat.  While a good incumbent can outperform their party in their district, the First, Seventh, Eighth, and Seventeenth are swing seats that slightly favor the Democrats by margins of 2.8% to 6.9% with Democrats currently holding three of the four seats.  Representative Brian Fitzgerald who somehow manages to hold the First District for the Republicans and Representative Matt Cartwright in the Eighth District and Representative Connor Lamb in the Seventeenth District for the Democrats all have to wonder how long their luck will continue to hold in redrawn districts.  And it would be much easier for those drawing the maps if they don’t have to choose which two incumbents to force into the same race. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get.  As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.

The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation.   We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million.  As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand.  Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district.  While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.

If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska.  Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives.  If  both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat).  The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat.  Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people.  (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats. Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Court and Elections — Post 2020 Editions

This past argument session (the February Session) saw the last gasps of the 2020 election.  There were three very different issues on the table:  1) the Trump attempts to overturn the election for alleged failure to follow election procedures: 2) the role of state legislatures, state election officials, state courts, and federal courts in setting the rules for election; and 3) the Voting Rights Act.

On the first issue, there are apparently two cases still pending at the U.S. Supreme Court — one a Wisconsin case that will likely be turned down on the March 8 order list and the other will not be considered until later (either the March 19 or March 26 conference).  The second one is a Pennsylvania case involving the issue discussed below.  Assuming that the Wisconsin case is denied, the Supreme Court will have denied Trump’s requests for review in all of the cases involving alleged fraud in the election over the past several weeks.

The second issue is likely to arise again.  Article I, Section 4, Clause 1 gives the primary authority to set the “times, places, and manner” of congressional elections to the “legislature” of each state subject to the ability of Congress to also legislate on these issues.  Similarly, Article II, Section 1, Clause 1 gives the power to direct the “manner” of choosing electors to the “legislature” of each state.  In recent years, there has been a significant amount of litigation involving these clauses.  There are two key legal questions:  1) what is the scope of “manner”; and 2) what is the “legislature.” Continue Reading...

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2022 Elections — A First Glance

The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided.  And two years is a long time in politics.  But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.

The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats.  But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats.  As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past.  In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander.  And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races.  And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier.  In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term.  But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.

The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted.  This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies.  Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base.  But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms. Continue Reading...

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Electoral College

One of the often misunderstood aspects of U.S. elections is how the popular vote relates to the election of the President.  While, in the majority of the states, the ballot simply lists the candidates for President (along with the Vice-Presidential running mate), voters are effectively voting for a slate of electors.  The winning slate in each state then assembles on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December at the location and time designated by that state.  After assembling, the electors for the state cast a vote for President and a vote for Vice-President.  The votes are then counted, and the electors complete six certificates of vote recording the votes of the electors for that state.  Each certificate of vote is paired with one of the previously completed certificates of ascertainment.  Federal law then directs what happens with the six certificates of vote with one going to the President of the Senate (in practice, the clerk of the Senate), two to the national archives, two to the secretary of state of the individual state, and one to the federal district court for that state.

Normally, the meeting of the electoral college is a big ceremonial event.  With Covid-19 and the potential for protests to get out of control, it appears that most of the states are planning on holding scaled-down events.

The fringe element of Trump supporters (and President Putin) are hoping for some last minute drama for Monday, but that is practically impossible for several reasons.  First, earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld state laws requiring electors to vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged.  While states have different laws on so-called faithless electors,  the net effect of those laws is that sixty-nine Biden electors are from states that replace an elector and cancel the electors vote if the elector fails to follow through on their pledge, sixty are from states that fine the elector, seventy-one are from states with pledges but no enforcement provision, and one hundred six are from states with no law on this issue.  That means that, at most, there are 237 Biden electors who could defect. Continue Reading...

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