South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 27, 2024

It’s hard interpreting the Republican results for president this year.  If Donald Trump were the incumbent, the numbers that he is getting would be the sign of substantial opposition within the party.  If this year were a truly open primary (i.e. he was not being treated as the “incumbent candidate” by Republicans), his results would be outstanding.

But the bigger story out of Saturday might be at the Congressional District level and is about the House of Representatives, not the presidency.  Nikki Haley only won one of the seven congressional districts — the First District.  Nancy Mace is the current, two-term, incumbent.  She was one of the “Freedom Caucus Eight” who voted to vacate the chair.  Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning on supporting a primary challenger to Representative Mace.  Does the fact that Nikki Haley got 53% of the vote show that a majority of the Republicans in the First District will support an establishment challenger to a Trumpist candidate.  If so, the Representative Mace’s time in Congress might be coming to a quick end.  Additionally, while the lines were a little different, the last time that the Republicans were this divided and supported the more extreme primary candidate, the Democrats managed to win this district (in 2018).  So, if the Democrats find a credible candidate for the general and Representative Mace wins the primary, perhaps enough real Republicans do not vote in the general or opt to vote for the Democrat to take this seat away from the Freedom Caucus.

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Alabama IVF Decision

By tmess2 | Published February 25, 2024

In the past week, there has been a developing story out of Alabama.  The Alabama Supreme Court ruled that several the couples who had used an IVF clinic could bring a wrongful death action against the clinic.  That clinic kept unused embryos frozen in a “cryogenic nursery.”  There was an incident at that clinic involving an intruder which causes the embryos in question to thaw.

Despite the media attention paid to this story, it is really the story of the dog that didn’t bark.   While Alabama does not technically have a “life begins at conception” law, the state constitution does have a provision recognizing that, from conception, an embryo does have a right to life.  And for a long time, Alabama has recognized that its wrongful death law does permit a cause of action for the death of an embryo.  (The debate in the case revolved around which statutes applied.  There are other statutes which limit some causes of action to an embryo in the uterus, but the majority declined to find that those statutes limited the cause of action.)  In the absence of a statute making a distinction based on implantation, if there is a cause of action for the death of a fetus against a John Doe who gets into a car accident with a woman who is pregnant causing a miscarriage, there is no logical reason that there would not be a cause of action against a clinic which has expressly (by contract) taken on a duty to protect the embryo.

Now, if you did not recognize conception as the starting point of life or personhood, there might be a basis to distinguish between an unimplanted embryo and a fetus at a later stage of development.  (And as noted above, for some purposes Alabama does nto make that distinction.)  After all, a significant percentage of blastocytes (the technical term for the early stage of embryonic development) do not successfully implant in the uterus.  In fact, many birth control  methods are designed to prevent implantation.  Even after implantation, it is not unusual for there to be an early miscarriage before it is even possible to detect a pregnancy.   But once you define life and personhood as starting at conception, even an unimplanted embryo is a person with all of the rights that the law grants to a “person.” Continue Reading...

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2024 Presidential Primaries — South Carolina Republicans and Michigan

By tmess2 | Published February 24, 2024

As we head into the last week of February, we are also reaching the end of the authorized early primaries.  Under the respective rules of the two parties, there is a preliminary window in which only some states were authorized to hold early primaries/caucuses.  For the Republicans, the “regular” primary window opens on March 1.  For Democrats, the “regular” primary window opens on the first Tuesday in March (March 5).

For this last week, we have three primaries on the book.  First up, today, is the South Carolina Republican primary.  South Carolina law allows the parties to choose the date of their own primary, and the two parties have tended to choose different dates (but usually a Saturday).  And so we had the Democratic primary several weeks back which was won by President Joe Biden.  Now, it’s the Republican primary.  While there are seven candidates on the ballot, two of them are not known nationally, and three of the nationally-known candidates have dropped out.  In other words, while five of the candidates may get some votes, there are only two with any chance of winning delegates — former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and a candidate who ineligible to be president, Donald Trump.  South Carolina Republicans use a “winner-take-most” system for allocating delegates.  In other words, each congressional district has three delegates and whomever wins that district gets all three delegates.  Likewise, there are twenty-nine at-large delegates, and whomever wins the state gets all twenty-nine delegates.  Especially with only two serious candidates in the races, whomever wins statewide will have won at least one congressional district (and probably will have won more than one).  Thus, the winner of the primary is guaranteed to take at least 32 of the 50 delegates (which is why this type of system is referred to as winner-take-most).  Despite the fact that Nikki Haley used to be the governor of South Carolina, the traditional Republican Party in South Carolina is dead and has been replaced by the Trump Party.  While anybody who did not vote in the Democratic Primary could theoretically vote in the Republican Primary, there probably will not be enough independents and Democrats voting to save the Republican Party from itself.  Polls show Donald Trump leading by a wide enough margin that he should win all fifty delegates, and the only question is whether Nikki Haley can make it close enough to steal a district or two.

On Tuesday, we will primaries for both parties in Michigan.  President Joe Biden should win the state easily.  Neither Representative Dean Phillips nor Marianne Williamson is a serious contender to reach the fifteen percent to win delegates.  The real contender to take delegates away from President Biden is “uncommitted.”  Representative Rashida Tlaib has been encouraging voters to vote for uncommitted in protest of President Biden’s middle of the road stance on Israel’s response to Hamas’s invasion of Israel.  While the pro-Palestinian progressive wing of the Democratic Party has a problem with Israel trying to remove Hamas from the Gaza Strip, if President Biden were to do what they want him to do, it would guarantee Donald Trump’s victory in November.  If uncommitted stays below 15% (state-wide or in any individual district), President Biden will win all of the delegates (state-wide or in that district).  The largest districts have seven delegates; so it is unlikely that uncommitted will get more than one delegate in any individual district.  The one exception to that might be Representative Tlaib’s district.  And the issue in that district will be whether uncommitted can get to the 21% necessary to win a second delegate.  If uncommitted does not win any delegates in that district, we could see a primary challenge to Representative Tlaib emerge.  State-wide, there are twenty-five at-large delegates and fifteen party-leader delegates.  As such, if uncommitted were to get to fifteen percent state-wide, uncommitted would get, at least, four at-large and two party-leader delegates.   But the expectation is that President Biden will win almost all of the 117 delegates at stake on Tuesday. Continue Reading...

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Presidents Day Convention Update

By Matt | Published February 20, 2024
  • Want to know the inner workings of convention press credentials? Check out this session from, yes, the State Department:

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Trump Litigation News — Immunity and Ballot Access

By tmess2 | Published February 8, 2024

Following what is happening to Donald Trump in court is a little like a soap opera — a lot of little things happening all of the time that makes you wonder when it is time to write about the latest maneuvering.  This week, however, seems to be shoehorned around two very consequential events.

First, on Tuesday, we got the decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on the appeal of the ruling denying Trump’s motion to dismiss the January 6 case.  The opinion was a per curiam opinion.  For those who are not lawyers, most opinions identify the author.  A per curiam opinion is on behalf of all of the judges who heard the case and does not identify a specific judge as the author.  There are a variety of reasons why courts opt to issue such opinions.  The reasons that most likely apples here is to emphasize that this opinion is the unanimous opinion of all of the judges.

The opinion is rather long (fifty-seven pages).  After initially determining that the trial court’s decision on Trump’s motion to dismiss charges could be appealed now (most decisions can’t be challenged until after the case goes to trial), the judges systematically demolish all of Trump’s claims on why a former president can’t be charged for criminal conduct committed while in office.  They also reject Trump’s attempt to change his position from 2021 and argue that the decision of 43 Senators to not remove Trump from office after his term ended barred criminal charges on double jeopardy grounds.  The most important part of the ruling was not on the merits.  Rather it was a procedural decision. Continue Reading...

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Latest convention news

By Matt | Published February 8, 2024
  • Chicago Public Schools are likely starting a week later to avoid conflicts with the convention
  • Former LA Deputy Mayor Ben Austin remembers the 2000 LA Democratic Convention
  • Politico interviewed Christy George, the executive director of the host committee for the Democratic National Convention. Two highlights:

On fundraising: “We’re doing quite well,” she said, without wanting to share how far along they are at raising the $80 million to $100 million needed to put on the event.

On organizing volunteers: George’s team is working to bring in 12,000 volunteers to help put on the four-day event. They’ll do everything from guiding visitors at the airport and train stations to directing them to their seats at the convention.

  • The Host Committee is looking for Neighborhood Ambassadors from 77 Chicago communities.
  • They are always looking for volunteers
  • And finally, if you want to submit a bid to design the credentials, make sure to check this out:

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South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 5, 2024

While the numbers are not yet “official” (as folks may remember from 2020, it takes a couple of weeks to formally certify the votes), the unofficial results from South Carolina are crystal clear.   There were minor variations from county to county (mostly in who finished second), but the major story of the evening was relatively consistent.  In every county, President Joe Biden finished somewhere in the mid-90s, and Marainne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips were splitting the remaining vote (each getting in the low single digits).  As a result, neither Ms. Williamson nor Representative Phillips came close to getting the 15% required to win delegates in any congressional district or statewide.

Tomorrow night, we will see if this result is duplicated in Nevada.  But, if it wasn’t clear before this weekend, it should be clear now.  President Biden will be the Democratic nominee this fall despite the wishful thinking and conspiracy theories put out by the Trumpists.  And given the economic numbers, President Biden should be renominated and should be elected.  While the U.S. did have inflation rise after the COVID pandemic, the same happened in every major industrial economy due to disruptions caused by the pandemic (followed by the war in Ukraine).  Compared to other countries (including some run by conservative governments), the U.S. did above average.  Meanwhile, while higher than before, interest rates in the U.S. are still below historical averages, and we have a growing economy with low unemployment.  On the economic numbers, President Biden is doing as well or better than most presidents have in their first term.  And it is the job of Democrats to make sure that the good news on the economy gets out and outweighs the pessimism that frequently is found in economic reporting.

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Presidential Primaries — South Carolina, Nevada, and Virgin Islands

By tmess2 | Published February 3, 2024

Over the next week, we will have four/five primary contests for the two parties.  (Four if you only count the binding contests, five if you count the beauty contests.)  This list includes the first two sanctioned contests on the Democratic side.

First up is today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina.  South Carolina is a little bit different from the rest of the country.  While South Carolina has a state-run primary, it allows the parties to choose the date of its own presidential primary.  As a result, it is not unusual for the two parties to choose different days.  (That flexibility allowed the Democratic National Committee to place South Carolina at the start of the primary schedule.)  The Democrats will hold their primary today, but the Republicans will not hold their primary for another three weeks.

As with most other states, the Democratic primary is essentially multiple primaries at the same time.  There are, effectively, two state-wide primaries — one for at-large delegates and one for “pledged party leader and elected officials” (PLEO) delegates.  Meanwhile, there is a primary in each congressional district.  Voters will cast only one vote, but it will be counted in each of the relevant contests.  For each of these races, the key number is 15%.  Any candidate who gets 15% will get at least one delegate from that pool of delegate. Continue Reading...

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DNC logo is Bideny, RNC logo is Trumpy

By Matt | Published January 27, 2024

First, a shoutout to a new Substack we just discovered. Yello, “a newsletter about politics, art, branding, and design”.  Please subscribe and show them some love!

Yello did a deep design dive into the 2024 DNC and RNC logos. Here are some highlights:

  • The DNC 2024 logo uses the three red, waving stripes element used to make the E in “Biden” in the 2024 Biden-Harris logo:

Continue Reading...

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New Hampshire Primary

By tmess2 | Published January 23, 2024

Today is round two for the Republicans with the New Hampshire Primary.  Because primary dates are set by state law, there will also be a non-binding primary (a/k/a “beauty contest”) on the Democratic side (more on that below).

While there will be other candidates on the ballot, there are only two major candidates on the Republican side — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.  Given that New Hampshire has a semi-open primary in which independents can vote in either party’s primary, it is believed that there will be a significant number of “moderates” who opt to vote in the Republican primary.  If there is a chance for Nikki Haley to win nationally, she needs a win in New Hampshire.  Given Trump’s many issues (legal, physical, mental), the Republicans really do not need the chaos that would ensue if Trump “wins” the nomination but has to withdraw before the convention.  (And while it is hard to project what the Supreme Court intends to do, it is easier for them to do the legally correct thing if Trump is not the presumptive Republican nominee.)  New Hampshire is a proportional state, so unless Haley or Trump blows the other out of the water what really matters here is the perception that Haley can compete and beat Trump than the actual delegate count.)

On the Democratic side, the timing of the New Hampshire primary (set by state law) violates the national delegate selection rules.  As a result, the primary is a non-binding primary.  Because the New Hampshire Democratic Party has decided to resist the national rules and support the unenforceable state law mandating that other states let New Hampshire goes first, New Hampshire has had its delegate total reduced to ten delegates.  More importantly, we do not yet have an approved plan for how those delegates will be chosen. Continue Reading...

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