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Senate Forecast - September 28 update

by: Matt

Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 10:00:00 AM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2010 DemConWatch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

Senate Forecast: 53.7 (-5.2), down from 54.7 post-Delaware. (See the latest House Forecast here). The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

While CA and WA seem to be heading from T back to DL, WV and CT are also now solidly in DL territory, putting more overall states in peril.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R) Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle. Rankings are sorted with the most favorable to the Democrats on the left.

Sources: DCW, SSP. Rothenberg, Cook, CQ, CrystalBall, Daily Kos, 538

Senate Forecast
  Current/Avg. DCW Cook SSP Rothenberg CQ CrystalBall 538 Daily Kos  
  9/24/10 9/16/10 9/22/10 9/24/10 9/18/10 9/23/10 9/22/10 9/23/10  
Dem-Strong 17 9 7 6 7 7 7 9 8  
Dem-Lean 6 1 5 1 2 2 2 3  
Tossup 5 12 7 10 7 5 2 3  
Rep-Lean 5 4 4 3 6 7 4 1  
Rep-Strong 19 12 13 15 16 15 16 20 22  
Dem '10 Projection 13.7 17.3 14.6 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.5 12.4 12.1  
Dem '12/'14 Seats 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
Dem Senate Projection 53.7 57.3 54.6 54.3 53.4 53.3 52.5 52.4 52.1  
Dem-Gain -5.3 -1.7 -4.4 -4.7 -5.6 -5.7 -6.5 -6.6 -6.9  
HI (Inouye) D D D D D D D D D  
MD (Mikulski) D D D D D D D D D  
NY (Schumer) D D D D D D D D D  
OR (Wyden) D D D D D D D D D  
VT (Leahy) D D D D D D D D D  
DE (Open) D D D DL D D D D D  
NY (Gillibrand) D DL D D D D D D D  
CT (Open) D D T DL DL DL DL D D  
WA (Murray) D D T DL T T T DL DL  
CA (Boxer) D DL T DL T T T DL DL  
NV (Reid) D DL T T T T T T T  
IL (Open) D T T T T T T T T  
CO (Bennet) D DL T T T T RL RL T  
WI (Feingold) D DL T T T T T RL R  
PA (Open) D D T RL T RL RL R R  
NH (Open) R T T T RL RL RL RL RL  
KY (Open) R T T T T RL RL R R  
FL (Open) R T T T RL RL RL RL R  
MO (Open) R RL T RL T T RL R R  
OH (Open) R RL RL RL RL RL R R R  
IN (Open) D RL RL R R RL R R R  
NC (Burr) R RL R RL R R RL R R  
AK (Open) R T R R R R R R R  
LA (Vitter) R RL RL R R R R R R  
AR (Lincoln) D R RL R R R R R R  
AL (Shelby) R R R R R R R R R  
AZ (McCain) R R R R R R R R R  
GA (Isakson) R R R R R R R R R  
IA (Grassley) R R R R R R R R R  
ID (Crapo) R R R R R R R R R  
KS (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
ND (Open) D R R R R R R R R  
OK (Coburn) R R R R R R R R R  
SC (DeMint) R R R R R R R R R  
SD (Thune) R R R R R R R R R  
UT (Open) R R R R R R R R R  
Matt :: Senate Forecast - September 28 update

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