Here we go again, from Adam Smith, St. Pete Times Political Editor:
Wonder if RNC had any 2nd thoughts today re Tampa convntion seeing hurricane heading towrd FL almost exctly 1 yr out from.
We've been discussing conventions and hurricanes for 5 years now. We noted in 2006 that the threat of hurricanes cost Tampa the 2008 convention:
How short-sited of the GOP. Are they also going to avoid West Coast cities also because of the potential for earthquakes? Actually that's fine. Hopefully the Democrats can make a big statement in 2012 by having the convention in Miami, Charlotte, or, of course, New Orleans.
(like that prescient mention of Charlotte, even more so with Irene headed towards the Carolina coast?)
But the fact is, the chances of a hurricane hitting a specific metropolitan area a specific week are very small:
The chance of a hurricane hitting Tampa Bay the week of the convention are probably less than 1 percent, a National Hurricane Center scientist estimates. ...
"For a major hurricane, it's a rare event," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
In August, most hurricanes move east to west. So Tampa Bay, on Florida's west coast, tends to be a "little shielded," he said.
Landsea puts the chances of a hurricane hitting the Tampa Bay area during August at about 2 to 3 percent.
For any given week in August, the chance may be one-half of 1 percent — or possibly up to 1 percent if 2012 is an especially busy hurricane season.
And 2008 showed that cities far away from the coast can be affected by conventions.
Don't get us wrong. We take hurricanes very seriously, and we're keeping our fingers crossed that Irene turns away from the coast and heads out to sea.
But admit it, wouldn't you like to see Romney, Perry or Bachmann give a speech at Raymond James Stadium in the wind and rain? It might look something like this. (Click on the link. The below video is no longer available).
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