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Awaiting Irene

by: DocJess

Fri Aug 26, 2011 at 17:30:09 PM EDT


I'm not putting up a map. You can't avoid the maps. The one with the track. The one with the potential other tracks. The one with the Jet Streak overlaying the Jet Stream. The one with the NYC evacuation areas. The ones from the other states. Politics is less important in times of disaster (unless you're FEMA under Brownie and Shrub) and having heard both Fat Boy Slim and Crooked Corbett, along with Mayors Nutter and Bloomberg, they're all doing all the right things for a storm that will affect 65 million people. 

There are some glitches: buses loaded with no destination yet set. The people living in the tunnels near the subways due to close tomorrow. But for the most part, even the Republicans are doing the right things in terms of staging people, preemptively ordering suspension of rules, and enforcement of others, and properly preparing. Here in PA, the Crook did right by allowing suspension of the rules for departments which normally need clearances. Thus, if PennDOT needs to move heavy equipment on roads it normally wouldn't allow, they can just say yes without a paperwork nightmare. In addition, he noted that anyone gouging on essentials would be prosecuted. 

If you're in the path, the Red Cross has a good checklist here.  They neglected one thing for those people who will be in the path, but likely able to shelter in place: fill your bathtub with water. If the water treatment plant loses power and you lose water, you'll have what to drink (especially if you read the Red Cross list) - but you'll need the bathtub water to flush your toilets. 

I was in New Jersey during Hurricane Floyd in 1999, and it wasn't great. This will be much worse. So, I'm doing everything I can to prepare...I hope you are, too, if you're in the path. 

DocJess :: Awaiting Irene

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Awaiting Irene | 13 comments
The wrong thing (0.00 / 0)
Sorry, but New York State is doing the wrong thing.

Apparently their cockamamie hurricane plan has them shutting down all mass transit starting at noon tomorrow. That's everything--trains, busses, subways, the works.

This is insanity. We're manufacturing a carmageddon, at a time when people may need to get out. If, as is true of many people in New York, you live in a low-lying area and don't have a car, what are you supposed to do? Get out tonight, of course, but not everyone will do that for one reason or another--perhaps an employer won't let them off the hook for their shift or whatever. So what are those people supposed to do? Drown, I guess.

If there's a direct hit, there will be a point where parts of the system need to be shut down, as occurred in the '92 nor'easter. But everything??? Starting nearly a day before the worst of the storm? It makes no sense at all, and is reminiscent of some of the mistakes made during Katrina.


in RI (0.00 / 0)
they aren't opening our local shelter until 8 am Sunday, when the current projected hit time is 2pm...  Given the width of this storm, that seems non-optimal.

My neighbors and I are dithering about whether to evacuate.  the big concern here is the storm surge.  Currently that will hit at a lunar low tide, though.

I find the huge reluctance to leave one's home baffling, even though I am well into it myself.


[ Parent ]
Good luck! (4.00 / 1)
Hoping you have safe shelter.

[ Parent ]
Thanks (0.00 / 0)
Evacuation is now mandatory.  I could have bunked on the floor at a cousin's come one, come all, but have opted for a nearby hotel.  I will be extremely happy if the house is undamaged.

[ Parent ]
Shutting Transit is the right thing to do... (4.00 / 1)
It doesn't mean that there won't be evacuation buses like there are in Jersey....it appears that the subways will flood, it won't be safe for the elevated trains nor the buses.

And I don't see how NY can avoid a direct hit.

We'll see - but I think it was the right move.


[ Parent ]
Not all transit, not for this (0.00 / 0)
How about Boston? No evacuation orders, no hurricane warning (only a tropical storm warning), and they shut down all transit today. Insane! Boston faces tropical storm conditions multiple times in a typical year, f you combine tropical systems with nor'easters.

Even considering the worst-case forecast, this would have been no worse for New York City than the '92 nor'easter. That was, indeed, catastrophic, but it did not shut down the whole transit system.

And as for evacuation busses? Mayor Bloomberg last night said that those in the evacuation zone who didn't evacuate earlier were "on their own," should stay put, but could try to walk out "a their own risk."

I'll be curious to see if this is the new normal. Will entire regions be shut down for every strong nor'easter or strong tropical storm? Will northern California shut itself down when a strong ocean storm is on the way?  


[ Parent ]
different (0.00 / 0)
As I understand it, this was a different type of storm from the usual.  Because it moved so slowly, it piled up a large storm surge, hence a larger risk of flooding.

Fortunately, it wimped out by the time it hit my area.  It took out a couple of sailboats that hadn't been pulled out of the water and caused some erosion and trees down, that's it.

One sailboat is baffling.  It's not from around here, registered in San Francisco, 40-50 feet long, and must have cost a zillion dollars judging by its appearance, yet it got so little protection it wound up on the rocks.


[ Parent ]
definitely the right move (0.00 / 0)
if the subways were running when the tunnels started to flood there would be thousands of people in harms way, and if it were sudden the third rail would electrocute someone before it shut down, there would be hundreds of trains stranded and scattered across the five boros the trains could get flooded and then you'd have million of dollars of damaged trains that will be useless causing more havoc when the first rush hour hits and there aren't enough trains, not to mention all the conductors and engineers that would be in harms way, and if the streets flood you have the same thing with buses.

NYC is lucky this is hitting on a weekend, when people don't need to go out and they can shut down the transit system, if this were during the week there would be more chaos and a more complicated plan would be needed.


[ Parent ]
Busses (0.00 / 0)
Explain to me how shutting down all bus lines so far in advance, and before a hurricane warning was even in place, made sense.

As it turns out, what happened in New York is that many, many people decided to risk not evacuating. Their risk paid off, but if it hadn't we would be looking at a lot of people in big trouble right now, and probably more fatalities.

Not all action is sensible action.

As for third rail electrocutions and tunnels filling and the like, parts of the subway system have flooded many times before with no warning--we know how those things work. And the surge in the '92 nor'easter was worse than the worst-case scenario from Irene, but did not cause the whole system to shut down (although most of it did).

One thing people don't seem to understand is that Irene behaved almost exactly as forecast. The path was dead on, the storm surge forecasts were dead on, the timing was dead on, the rainfall and winds were just slightly on the light side of the forecast range. There was never a forecast for cat 2 conditions in New York City, or cat 1 conditions in Philly. The one bit where the forecasts were off was in weakening before it got to North Carolina, but the weakening during and after that was very close to expectations.  


[ Parent ]
the forecasts were wrong for RI (0.00 / 0)
We got much less of a storm surge than they were predicting.  At one point they were talking about eight feet.

[ Parent ]
waiting it out (0.00 / 0)
My in-laws are in the direct path. My bil wasn't assigned to any of the Navy that went out to sea yesterday, so he's staying with the pets. Two of them are special needs. My sil is a preemie nurse who is staying at her hospital for the duration. She brought lots of pb&j supplies.  :)

God be with the 10s of millions in it's path. At least it's weakening sooner rather than later. I can feel the wind from it today from middle TN.


Thinking good thoughts for everyone (0.00 / 0)
boy is it moving slowly.

[ Parent ]
I hate to say it (0.00 / 0)
but I couldn't find a nasty thing to say about Christie in NJ this weekend. His bullish, brutish personality was a good fit for this, when hundreds of thousands of complacent suburbanites had to be jarred awake less they put themselves in danger (or put emergency services personnel in danger).  

Awaiting Irene | 13 comments


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