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2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

by: Matt

Mon Jan 02, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM EST

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

It's been a while since we last posted in May, but things stayed relatively stable until December, when somewhat improved prospects in MA, NV, ND and WV were overshadowed by Ben Nelson's retirement in NE.

The forecast  for the Democrats is 48.7 seats, a loss of 4.3 seats from their current 53. The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast).

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Note: This post was updated on 1/8 to include DCW rankings, changing the forecast to 48.9.

































Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall

Matt :: 2012 DCW Senate Forecast:

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States ticked off at the GOP (0.00 / 0)
Personally, I'd rate NM and WI as DL right now, just because they're both so mad at the GOP--Wisconsin because of the Walker fiasco, and New Mexico because of the anti-Latino stances of many Republicans. That puts us right on the knife-edge of maintaining control of the Senate.

North Dakota (0.00 / 0)
I don't necessarily buy that North Dakota is a Republican lock. Heidi Heitkamp is actually a strong Democratic candidate and in the limited polling that's been done, she runs pretty well against Rick Berg. It's probably at best a Republican-Lean, but to just declare it safe for the Republicans is a bit premature. I also see no reason to think Hawaii is a toss-up, and Ohio and to a slightly lesser extent, Florida, look pretty good. Bill Nelson took a hit when Rep. Connie Mack got in, but I still think he's a good favorite to win.  

"Is profit and greed the only conceit on a scale between mere prosperity and inhumanity? It may well be." -Bad Religion

[ Parent ]
Cook has it as a Tossup (0.00 / 0)
I think the rest are waiting to see more polls, or maybe 4Q fundraising, although I would think you don't need much money for a statewide race in ND.

[ Parent ]
Everything I can see says we take back the house (0.00 / 0)
When was the last time the party holding the WH lost the senate and took the house? And did they lose or keep the WH?

Speaking of which, of the last 11 straight up sitting, elected presidents, only two have not served two terms.

Might post a mini thread on that.

Missouri Tossup? (0.00 / 0)
I really don't see Missouri as a toss-up.  McCaskill has the advantage of name recognition over whomever the Republicans nominate and right now it is looking like a three-way dog fight for the Republican nomination with none of the Rebublicans being strong enough to win the general.  I am seeing it as a Democrat lean with a good chance that McCaskill ends up with 53-55% of the vote when everything is said and done.

sadly (0.00 / 0)
The map for 2014 doesn't get any better for Democrats with the Dems having to defend 6 red seats and 4 swing seats while the Republicans only have to defend 1 blue seat.  So even if the Democrats manage to hang on with 51 or 50+VP it may just prolong the inevitable.  In order to hang on til 2016 when Dems can go on offense again I think they need to run the table and stay at 52-54.

Is there really no hope of playing offense in Maine?  Tennessee seems possible as well but there doesn't even seem to be an announced Democrat yet.

Oh, and there is no way Hawaii is a tossup.

Maine (0.00 / 0)
There's no way Olympia Snowe could lose.

[ Parent ]
besides (0.00 / 0)
she's not a nutcase.  She's a New England moderate.  I'd vote for her if I lived in Maine.

[ Parent ]
Snowe (0.00 / 0)
Unfortunately, Olympia Snowe is unbeatable. The only hope to win this seat was that she would lose to a Tea Party primary challenge, but that ship sailed a long time ago. But Snowe a moderate? Hardly. I would've believed that a couple of years ago, but since she's been running scared from losing a primary, she's been voting down the party line almost exclusively. She might say reasonable things on occasion, but it comes down to votes, not what you say. Maybe after she's re-elected, her moderate streak might emerge again, but as of now, her supposed "moderation" is very overblown. Barack Obama is far more progressive, or moderate, than Snowe.

"Is profit and greed the only conceit on a scale between mere prosperity and inhumanity? It may well be." -Bad Religion

[ Parent ]
war (0.00 / 0)
Snowe supported a measure to get the U.S out of Hillary's/Obama's war in Libya.  Plus she is honest and smart.  I've never thought, she played me for a sucker, as I know Obama has.

I'd much rather have an honorable politician (rare as hens' teeth nowadays) like Snowe, even if I disagreed with them on several issues.

[ Parent ]
you have to run to win (0.00 / 0)
Make Maine a Tossup!

[ Parent ]
Under current Senate Rules (0.00 / 0)
Doesn't really matter if you have 59 Dems or 41. You still need 60 votes to vote positive on a vote to see if you want to vote on a bill. The minority Repubs have blocked more measures with the 1 person silent hold or by blocking the measure from coming to the floor......

Of course, if you loose the majority, then you lose leadership and the rules could change. Reed should have changed the rules after the last election, but oh well.....

The Senate will stay dysfunctional no matter who gets elected. It's the rules.....

Could Obama have the shortest coattails ever? i doubt it (0.00 / 0)

what do you think?

How about a Senate Forecast link towards top left of DCW (0.00 / 0)
so we can find this chart easily once it falls off of the front page  :)


any idea when we will get another update? (0.00 / 0)
i am still trying to pull some fla house numbers but not getting very far




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