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A Look at Super Tuesday

by: Oreo

Mon Mar 05, 2012 at 10:25:13 AM EST


With 10 states and 416 delegates (no Politico and NY Times... not 437 and no FiveThirtyEight not 422) Super Tuesday could be a game changer.

If you look around you'll see that news organizations are all over the map on how many delegates are available tomorrow. I've seen 419, 422 and 437. Here's what they're doing and why they're wrong:

419 delegates: Uses 416 delegates and superdelegates for only 6 states instead of 7
422 delegates: Uses 416 delegates and superdelegates for only 5 states instead of 7
437 delegates: Disregards the fact that superdelegates will not be decided tomorrow.

From our Ultimate Republican Nomination Info Chart:

  Total
Delegates


 Delegates Ballot bound to
Superdelegates
Delegate Allocation
Alaska 27       24 Bound 2nd. After that unbound
if candidate is last
3 Proportional
Georgia 76       76 Bound 2nd
0 >50% in district WTA
State is Proportional
Idaho 32       32 Bound 1st
0 WTA if >50%
Massachusetts 41       38 Bound 1st
3 R-2 Proportional
North Dakota 28       25 Unbound NA
3  
Ohio 66       63 Bound  3 WTA
Oklahoma 43       40 Bound All
3 Proportional
Tennessee 58       55 Bound 2nd
3 WTA
Vermont 17       17 Bound 1st
0 WTA if >50%
Virginia 49       46 Bound 1st
3 District is WTA
State is WTA if >50%

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates on the ballot in both Virginia and Massachusetts.

 

 

Oreo :: A Look at Super Tuesday

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