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2012 DCW Senate Forecast

by: Matt

Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 23:56:11 PM EDT

Welcome to the latest (and last?) edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Senate Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

The good news continues, as the forecast moved from 51.7 to 52.0, a loss of 1.0 seats from the current 53. (But if you assume King caucus's with the Dems, we're at 52.5). There was good movement in MO, CT and IN.  In terms of range, you can see from the chart that Democrats have 41 Safe Seats, have a straightforward path, HI->OH, to 47, clear favorites now to 49 (CT, MA), easily winnable seats to 53, and have a potential highpoint of 57 seats.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2011 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast). 

Speaking of Independents, Angus King's strong run in Maine is causing havoc in the algorithms. Although many assume that King will caucus with the Democrats, it is no sure thing, and everybody classifies the race in a different way. For the purposed of these rankings, we're marking the race as a pure Tossup for everyone. If he wins, and until he declares what he will do, the seat's status will remain unknown, so keeping it as T is the safest thing to do.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected Solid/Likely (D)  for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean (DL), 0.5 seats for a Tossup (T), 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean (RL), and obviously 0 seats for a solid/likely (R)Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The Senate seats are sorted by the likelihood of the seat being won by a Democrat, so the most solid Democratic seats are at top, the most solid Republican seats are at the bottom, and the Tossups are in the middle.

Sources: Rothenberg, Cook, RollCall, CrystalBall, Daily Kos Elections, 538, DCW

Matt :: 2012 DCW Senate Forecast

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Missouri-Attack Robocalling (0.00 / 0)

Well as the hours dwindle down, I heard the weirdest robocall I have ever heard -- not from an outside group but from the Akin campaing itself.

Yes, it was a slanderous, negative attack call, but the attack was not against Senator McCaskill, but against the Libertarian candidate.  Yes, with hours dwindling, the Akin campaign has decided its only chance at winning is to convince Republicans who are too disgusted to vote for him that the Libertarian candidate doesn't deserve the protest vote and that they need to come home.

well, (0.00 / 0)
At least you're not getting multiple phone calls a week that start "Fellow Republican."

[ Parent ]
North Dakota (0.00 / 0)
I am still pinching myself about North Dakota.


Can you believe it?!?




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