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Presidential Forecast

2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

by: Matt

Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 00:42:13 AM EST

Welcome to the latest (and last?) edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Presidential forecasts in an easy overview table.

Only a small change, going from 287-251 to 285-253. As noted in many places, basically the race has changed little the last 4 weeks.

The consensus map moves from 237-191 to 243-206 with 89 Tossups. Changes: NV: T->OL, NC: T->RL, MO/IN: RL->R. Ohio remains the tipping point state for Obama to get to 270.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.

 



Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times

Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments. 

Discuss :: (6 Comments)

2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

by: Matt

Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 00:01:39 AM EDT

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Presidential forecasts in an easy overview table.

Not a big change, going from 291-247 to 287-251, but the post-1st-debate effects are clearly seen on the graph. Some of our forecasts (CNN, NBC, NY Times) haven't changed since the summer, while others (Huff Post, new to the DCW forecast), have states (e.g. NH going OL->T->OL->T) changing multiple times/day.

The consensus map remains at 237-191 with 110 Tossups (1st debate negative changes offset by addition of Huff Post forecast, which is pro-Obama). The consensus map is based on a majority of the forecasts for each state. Ohio is the tipping point state for Obama getting to 270+, but there are many states past Ohio which are Tossups and easily in Obama's reach.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.



Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times

Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments. 

Discuss :: (6 Comments)

2012 DCW Presidential Forecast

by: Matt

Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 00:08:58 AM EDT

Welcome to the first edition of the 2012 Democratic Convention Watch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best Senate forecasts in an easy overview table.

We're not going to do a big analysis in this edition. Everyone's aware that Obama has a small but significant lead in the Electoral College. The average forecast is 291-247289-249, while the consensus map has it at 237-191 with 110 Tossup. The consensus map is based on a majority of the forecasts for each state.

As always we have a wide range of forecasts. Some, like CNN, NBC, Washington Post and NY Times (not 538), change their projections very rarely, while others, like FHQ and Election Projection, change daily. (As noted in the comments, a few states from FHQ are incorrectly noted. We've updated the toplines to 291-247, and will update the chart in next weekend's update).

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes. The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to Romney-Strong.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection , we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a lean, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is Romney-Lean, and 0% of the Solid Romney states. Exact opposite for Romney.



Sources: CNN, FHQ, NBC, RCP, ElectionProjection, Washington Post, NY Times

Map is from Real Clear Politics "Create Your Own Map" page. Set your own map and let us know your numbers in the comments. 

Discuss :: (2 Comments)


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