Trump Litigation News — Immunity and Ballot Access

By tmess2 | Published February 8, 2024

Following what is happening to Donald Trump in court is a little like a soap opera — a lot of little things happening all of the time that makes you wonder when it is time to write about the latest maneuvering.  This week, however, seems to be shoehorned around two very consequential events.

First, on Tuesday, we got the decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on the appeal of the ruling denying Trump’s motion to dismiss the January 6 case.  The opinion was a per curiam opinion.  For those who are not lawyers, most opinions identify the author.  A per curiam opinion is on behalf of all of the judges who heard the case and does not identify a specific judge as the author.  There are a variety of reasons why courts opt to issue such opinions.  The reasons that most likely apples here is to emphasize that this opinion is the unanimous opinion of all of the judges.

The opinion is rather long (fifty-seven pages).  After initially determining that the trial court’s decision on Trump’s motion to dismiss charges could be appealed now (most decisions can’t be challenged until after the case goes to trial), the judges systematically demolish all of Trump’s claims on why a former president can’t be charged for criminal conduct committed while in office.  They also reject Trump’s attempt to change his position from 2021 and argue that the decision of 43 Senators to not remove Trump from office after his term ended barred criminal charges on double jeopardy grounds.  The most important part of the ruling was not on the merits.  Rather it was a procedural decision. Continue Reading...

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Latest convention news

By Matt | Published February 8, 2024
  • Chicago Public Schools are likely starting a week later to avoid conflicts with the convention
  • Former LA Deputy Mayor Ben Austin remembers the 2000 LA Democratic Convention
  • Politico interviewed Christy George, the executive director of the host committee for the Democratic National Convention. Two highlights:

On fundraising: “We’re doing quite well,” she said, without wanting to share how far along they are at raising the $80 million to $100 million needed to put on the event.

On organizing volunteers: George’s team is working to bring in 12,000 volunteers to help put on the four-day event. They’ll do everything from guiding visitors at the airport and train stations to directing them to their seats at the convention.

  • The Host Committee is looking for Neighborhood Ambassadors from 77 Chicago communities.
  • They are always looking for volunteers
  • And finally, if you want to submit a bid to design the credentials, make sure to check this out:

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South Carolina Recap

By tmess2 | Published February 5, 2024

While the numbers are not yet “official” (as folks may remember from 2020, it takes a couple of weeks to formally certify the votes), the unofficial results from South Carolina are crystal clear.   There were minor variations from county to county (mostly in who finished second), but the major story of the evening was relatively consistent.  In every county, President Joe Biden finished somewhere in the mid-90s, and Marainne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips were splitting the remaining vote (each getting in the low single digits).  As a result, neither Ms. Williamson nor Representative Phillips came close to getting the 15% required to win delegates in any congressional district or statewide.

Tomorrow night, we will see if this result is duplicated in Nevada.  But, if it wasn’t clear before this weekend, it should be clear now.  President Biden will be the Democratic nominee this fall despite the wishful thinking and conspiracy theories put out by the Trumpists.  And given the economic numbers, President Biden should be renominated and should be elected.  While the U.S. did have inflation rise after the COVID pandemic, the same happened in every major industrial economy due to disruptions caused by the pandemic (followed by the war in Ukraine).  Compared to other countries (including some run by conservative governments), the U.S. did above average.  Meanwhile, while higher than before, interest rates in the U.S. are still below historical averages, and we have a growing economy with low unemployment.  On the economic numbers, President Biden is doing as well or better than most presidents have in their first term.  And it is the job of Democrats to make sure that the good news on the economy gets out and outweighs the pessimism that frequently is found in economic reporting.

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Presidential Primaries — South Carolina, Nevada, and Virgin Islands

By tmess2 | Published February 3, 2024

Over the next week, we will have four/five primary contests for the two parties.  (Four if you only count the binding contests, five if you count the beauty contests.)  This list includes the first two sanctioned contests on the Democratic side.

First up is today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina.  South Carolina is a little bit different from the rest of the country.  While South Carolina has a state-run primary, it allows the parties to choose the date of its own presidential primary.  As a result, it is not unusual for the two parties to choose different days.  (That flexibility allowed the Democratic National Committee to place South Carolina at the start of the primary schedule.)  The Democrats will hold their primary today, but the Republicans will not hold their primary for another three weeks.

As with most other states, the Democratic primary is essentially multiple primaries at the same time.  There are, effectively, two state-wide primaries — one for at-large delegates and one for “pledged party leader and elected officials” (PLEO) delegates.  Meanwhile, there is a primary in each congressional district.  Voters will cast only one vote, but it will be counted in each of the relevant contests.  For each of these races, the key number is 15%.  Any candidate who gets 15% will get at least one delegate from that pool of delegate. Continue Reading...

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DNC logo is Bideny, RNC logo is Trumpy

By Matt | Published January 27, 2024

First, a shoutout to a new Substack we just discovered. Yello, “a newsletter about politics, art, branding, and design”.  Please subscribe and show them some love!

Yello did a deep design dive into the 2024 DNC and RNC logos. Here are some highlights:

  • The DNC 2024 logo uses the three red, waving stripes element used to make the E in “Biden” in the 2024 Biden-Harris logo:

Continue Reading...

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New Hampshire Primary

By tmess2 | Published January 23, 2024

Today is round two for the Republicans with the New Hampshire Primary.  Because primary dates are set by state law, there will also be a non-binding primary (a/k/a “beauty contest”) on the Democratic side (more on that below).

While there will be other candidates on the ballot, there are only two major candidates on the Republican side — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.  Given that New Hampshire has a semi-open primary in which independents can vote in either party’s primary, it is believed that there will be a significant number of “moderates” who opt to vote in the Republican primary.  If there is a chance for Nikki Haley to win nationally, she needs a win in New Hampshire.  Given Trump’s many issues (legal, physical, mental), the Republicans really do not need the chaos that would ensue if Trump “wins” the nomination but has to withdraw before the convention.  (And while it is hard to project what the Supreme Court intends to do, it is easier for them to do the legally correct thing if Trump is not the presumptive Republican nominee.)  New Hampshire is a proportional state, so unless Haley or Trump blows the other out of the water what really matters here is the perception that Haley can compete and beat Trump than the actual delegate count.)

On the Democratic side, the timing of the New Hampshire primary (set by state law) violates the national delegate selection rules.  As a result, the primary is a non-binding primary.  Because the New Hampshire Democratic Party has decided to resist the national rules and support the unenforceable state law mandating that other states let New Hampshire goes first, New Hampshire has had its delegate total reduced to ten delegates.  More importantly, we do not yet have an approved plan for how those delegates will be chosen. Continue Reading...

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DNC Hosts Media Walkthrough for 2024 Democratic Convention

By Matt | Published January 19, 2024

Unfortunately, most of the good stuff was off-the-record. From Axios:

Democratic National Convention organizers hosted a media walkthrough Thursday at the United Center for national, local and international news outlets, giving a peek at what to expect this summer. Continue Reading...

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We have a convention logo

By Matt | Published January 18, 2024

Today is also the first media walkthrough of the United Center for the 2024 Democratic Convention. We’ll have details later.

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DNCC Announces McCormick Place Hotels to serve as Convention Headquarters

By Matt | Published January 15, 2024

The Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) announced that the Marriott Marquis Chicago and Hyatt Regency at McCormick Place, both connected to McCormick convention center, will serve as the official headquarter hotels for the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago held August 19-22. The headquarter hotels are a designated base of operations for staff from the DNCC, Democratic National Committee, and Biden for President campaign, as well as media organizations and key leaders from coalition groups.

“We are proud to partner with these key hotels and the union labor that powers them to make the McCormick Place our home base for convention week,” said DNCC Executive Director Alex Hornbrook. “We are confident each of these hotels will offer the best service, professionalism, and home to our guests during such an important week where Democrats across the country come together, tell our story to the American people, and renominate President Biden and Vice President Harris.”

… Continue Reading...

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Iowa Caucuses 2024

By tmess2 | Published January 14, 2024

The 2024 presidential primaries officially kicks off on Monday night in the frigid cold of Iowa.

Traditionally, the Iowa Caucuses have three major components.  First, they are used to create the local organization of the political parties as caucus attendees elect the precinct’s representatives to the county committee.  Second, they are used to choose the delegates to the county convention (which in turn will choose the congressional district/state convention delegates who will elect the national convention delegates).  Third, a preference vote is taken which is used to allocate national convention delegates.

Thanks in part to Iowa’s move to the right and past problems with counting and report the preference vote, the national Democratic Party has rescinded its permission for Iowa to conduct a pre-March preference vote.  Unlike their counterparts in New Hampshire, Iowa Democrats have worked with the national party (in the hopes that in the future they might get a pre-March spot back).  But it is helpful to have both parties hold their precinct caucuses on the same date and holding a later event would create timing issues.  So the Democrats will use their caucuses for the purposes of electing party officials and the delegates who will attend the county conventions.  But to comply with national party rules, there will be no presidential preference vote on Monday.  Instead, there will be a party-run primary that will conclude in March. Continue Reading...

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