So, the polling round-up for the second half of September 2015 is now completed and the books have been closed on this two-week window, mostly concerning 2016. Here the links to my politics blog for the next two weeks of polling from 01-15.10.2015:
Here are the links to my politics blog for the next set of polling that should be coming in over these next two weeks:
With the first Democratic primary debate coming up on October 13th in Las Vegas, I suspect we will see hightened polling for the DEMS on many fronts. This also means that D-nomination polling AFTER the first debate could be most interesting to watch. Essentially, the 2nd half of October will show what kind of influence that debate had.
Also, the end of September was the end of financial Quarter 3, which could possibly mean that some of the lesser candidates on all fronts, if their fundraising was bad, may or may not drop out. I am thinking of people like Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum and Lincoln Chafee. With less candidates in the race, the toplines for those who are still in tend to experience a light uptick. Wait and see.
And finally, October is the lead-up to three Fall 2015 General elections (Gubernatorials): in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. So, I suspect we will see more intense polling from these three states in October, especially in Kentucky, where the KY GOP is no longer funding Matt Bevin’s campaign. Weirdness is happening in Kentucky. In Louisiana, as usual, it’s a runoff system and with four known candidates on the ballot, a runoff in this state is very, very likely. The Gubernatorial in Mississippi is kind of the sleeper election this time around.
In GOP polling, Jeb! Bush has now sunk to either 4th or 5th place and his donors are already starting to make noise that they may start switching sides if he doesn’t up his game, so I suspect that October may be “slog-it-out” month for Jeb!, for what it is worth.
But right now, the top three GOPers are all outsiders, and Biden indeed makes waves should he join the Democratic race. October should be an interesting month to watch on many fronts.