Monthly Archives: April 2022

The Supreme Court this Week — Puerto Rico and Signs

We are nearing the turn for home of the current Supreme Court term.  This upcoming week is the last week of arguments for the term.  After the upcoming Friday conference, the Supreme Court will take its last two-week recess which will be followed by several weeks of issuing opinions until all of the opinions are done.

Thursday saw the first large opinion dump from the Supreme Court.  This post will focus on the two with the most political significance.

First up is the latest on Puerto Rico.  The U.S. Constitution implicitly assumes that territorial status is temporary with Congress having ultimate control over the territory and the laws that apply in the territory until it can become a state.  On the other hand, once a territory becomes a state, it has equal status to other states. Continue Reading...

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Dems request bids to host 2024 convention

Eight cities were invited to submit bids:

Democratic leaders on Friday asked eight cities, including Chicago, Atlanta and Houston, to submit bids to host the 2024 Democratic nominating convention, according to a party official familiar with the request.

The formal call for proposals from the Democratic National Committee launches a quadrennial process that can bring nearly 5,000 delegates and as many as 45,000 other people to a host city for a four-night extravaganza, with dozens of sideline events and parties, aimed at unifying the country behind a presidential nominee. Continue Reading...

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GOP considering choosing 2028 convention site this year

Well, this would be a big change:

On Wednesday, Republican National Committee members unanimously voted to pass a new rule enabling the party to begin selecting its presidential convention sites six years in advance, leaving the door open for party officials to determine both the 2024 and 2028 convention locations this year. After that, the site reveal for the 2032 nominating convention would be made in 2026.
“Giving our Site Selection Committee the opportunity to start looking at cities seven years ahead of Convention is a smart business decision that will ensure the best possible event as our delegates select the Republican-nominee for President,” RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement to CNN.

Two years in advance to six years in advance is a big jump.  The other main issue? When a party controls the White House (in a first term, at least), where to hold the convention is really a decision for the White House to make, not the national committee.  Choosing the convention site 6 years in advance removes a first term president’s team from having any input to the decision.  But, it is true that cities fill up their available dates far in the future, and the parties need to remove any obstacles to cities wanting to bid for conventions. It will be very interesting to see how this goes.

Nashville and Milwaukee remain the two finalists to host the 2024 GOP Convention. A decision is expected later this year.

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French Election — Round 1

Continuing the international politics theme from last week, this Sunday is the first phase of the French presidential election.  It’s only the first phase for two reasons.  First, France uses a runoff system (the runoff will be in two weeks).  Second, France has so many political parties that there is no chance of anybody getting a majority in the first round.  For the presidential election, there will be twelve candidates on the ballots.

Unlike in Australia, where the competition is mainly between a center-left party and a center-right party with minimal differences on international issues, there is a wide range of views of the role of France in international politics and Vlad the Destroyer’s minions have certainly been trying to influence the chances of the candidates with disinformation campaigns.

While he is not certain to win the run-off in two weeks, most observers expect the incumbent President, Emmanuel Macron, to make the run-off.    He has led every poll with about 25-30% support.  In terms of international issues, Macron sits firmly in the camp that has dominated France for the past fifty years — for lack of a better name, strong France internationalism.  The basic gist of French foreign policy is that France is an active participant in working with other major democracies to build an international consensus on issues, but France certainly looks out for its own interests in those negotiations and is willing to say no to its allies or go it alone when it has to. Continue Reading...

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Australian Politics 2022 Style (Updated)

International Election season is fast approaching.  Today’s post is on Australia.  As of today, we do not have an exact date for the election in Australia, but we are pretty sure that it will be May 7, May 14, or May 21.  Or to be more exact, we are certain that Australia will have a Senate election on one of those three dates, and are 99% certain that there will be a House election on the same date.

As with other countries, it is not that any one thing about Australia’s elections is unique.  It’s how these features combine that make it unique.  In this case, the issue is the different rules for Senate elections and for House elections.  For Senate elections, there are some similarities between how the U.S. and Australia structure the Senate.  In both countries, each state gets the same number of Australia (twelve per state in Australia with the territories getting two seats each), the terms for Senators elected from the states are six years (with the term for territorial senators in Australia being three years), and terms are staggered.  What this means is that, every three years, Australia has a half-Senate election (six senators per state and the territorial senators).  Unlike the U.S. there is no set date for a Senate election.  Instead, it can be called for any time in the last year of the term (although the winners do not take office until the new term begins).  As the new term begins on July 1, the last possible date to hold the election (and be certain that the results will be finalized) is May 21.  And, at this point in time, even if the election were called the second that this post goes live, the earliest that the election could be held would be May 7 (but if the election is not called by Monday, that date would no longer be available).

On the other hand, while there are some similarities with the U.S. House, the Australian House is more like the Canadian House.  The House is composed of districts (Division in Australia) which are apportioned to the states based on population.  Like the U.S. House, there is a minimum number of Divisions (five) per state.  Currently, the only state which gets extra seats under this rule is Tasmania.  Unlike the U.S., which only reapportions every ten years, in Australia, this reapportionment occurs after every House election.  If a state’s total number of seats changes, or any districts (called Divisions in Australia) are too large or small (i.e. outside the permitted deviation) or seven years has passed since the last time that the lines have been redrawn, a non-partisan committee of civil servants redraws the lines for that State.  Australia’s term length for the House is three years — exactly in the middle between Canada and the U.S.  However, like in Canada, that term is only the maximum term, and the government can call an election early. Continue Reading...

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