-
Recent Posts
Search
Welcome to DCW
Upcoming Events
7/15/24 - GOP Convention
TBD - Democratic Convention
11/5/24 - Election DayTools
Archives
Tag Cloud
2008 Democratic National Convention 2012 Democratic National Convention 2012 Republican National Convention 2016 Democratic National Convention 2016 Republican National Convention 2020 Census 2020 Delegate Selection Plans 2020 Democratic Convention 2024 Democratic Convention 2024 Republican Convention Abortion Affordable Care Act Alabama Arizona Bernie Sanders California Delegate Selection Donald Trump First Amendment Florida Free Exercise Clause Free Speech Georgia Hillary Clinton Immigration Iowa Joe Biden John Kasich Kansas Maine Marco Rubio Michigan Missouri Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania redistricting Supreme Court Ted Cruz Texas Virginia Voting Rights Act WisconsinDCW in the News
Blog Roll
Site Info
-
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
- DocJess on GOP convention plans remain in flux
- tmess2 on Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
- DocJess on GOP Jacksonville money woes continue
- DocJess on Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
- tmess2 on GOP now looking at outdoor Jacksonville convention
Archives
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- September 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- November 2014
- September 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- March 2014
- January 2014
- August 2013
- August 2012
- November 2011
- August 2011
- January 2011
- May 2010
- January 2009
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
Categories
- 2019-nCoV
- 2020 Convention
- 2020 General Election
- 2020DNC
- 2024 Convention
- 2028 Convention
- Anti-Semitism
- Bernie Sanders
- Charlotte
- Chicago
- Civil Rights
- Cleveland
- Climate Change
- Coronavirus
- Coronavirus Tips
- COVID-19
- Debates
- Delegate Count
- Delegates
- Democratic Debates
- Democratic Party
- Democrats
- DemsinPhilly
- DemsInPHL
- Disaster
- DNC
- Donald Trump
- Economy
- Elections
- Electoral College
- Federal Budget
- Freedom of the Press
- General Election Forecast
- GOP
- Healthcare
- Hillary Clinton
- Holidays
- Hotels
- House of Representatives
- Houston
- Identity Politics
- Impeachment
- Iowa Caucuses
- Jacksonville
- Joe Biden
- Judicial
- LGBT
- Mariner Pipeline
- Merrick Garland
- Meta
- Milwaukee
- Money in Politics
- Music
- National Security
- Netroots Nation
- New Yor
- New York
- NH Primary
- Notes from Your Doctor
- NoWallNoBan
- Pandemic
- Philadelphia
- PHLDNC2016
- Platform
- Politics
- Polls
- Presidential Candidates
- Primary and Caucus Results
- Primary Elections
- Public Health
- Rant
- Republican Debates
- Republicans
- Resist
- RNC
- Russia
- Senate
- Snark
- Student Loan Debt
- Sunday with the Senators
- Superdelegates
- Syria
- The Politics of Hate
- Uncategorized
- Vaccines
- War
- Weekly White House Address
Meta
Monthly Archives: July 2020
Polling Places, Polling Judges, and COVID-19
As we head into the late state and congressional primaries and get ready for the general election, we are faced with a recurring issue aggravated by COVID-19. We have a very decentralized election infrastructure in this country. There are certain benefits to the decentralized nature of elections in the United States, but there are also several big problems.
The benefits of a decentralized infrastructure is that it is very, very difficult to engage in election fraud large enough to make a difference in any election other than, maybe, the local mayor’s race in a small town. In my state, there are over 100 election authorities and 3,600 precincts. So you can possibly devise a scheme to stuff the ballot box in a handful of precincts or handful of counties (especially if the election judges nominally representing one party actually belong to the other party). But you really need a close election for that to make a difference and you really need to add a lot of votes in those small number of precincts (enough to probably stand out). The disadvantage is that it is hard to get everyone to follow best practices, especially as many local election authorities have other duties and are elected based on something other than their ability to properly conduct an election.
When it comes to elections, there are several big decisions committed to the discretion of the local election authority. First, election authorities get to choose how many precincts there are (and where those precincts are located). In theory, there are multiple factors that the election authority should consider — availability of buildings, local traffic patterns, parking in the vicinity, public transportation, the number of voters in particular precincts. But most states give little guidance as far as maximum size of precincts.
Posted in COVID-19, Elections
Tagged absentee ballots, Election Judges, local election authoritites, mail-in voting, precincts
Comments Off on Polling Places, Polling Judges, and COVID-19
August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington
As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries. Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary. Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year. And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September. (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)
Earlier this week, I discussed the two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri). (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.) The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.
In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term. Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side. It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee. She does, however, have primary opposition. Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign. So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary. (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.) In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close. At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting.
Posted in House of Representatives, Primary Elections, Senate
Tagged Arizona, Brenda Jones, Mark Kelly, Martha McSally, Michigan, primary elections, Rashida Tlaib, Washington
Comments Off on August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington
GOP gives up on Jacksonville convention
Well, this was predictable:
President Trump announced Thursday he’s canceling the Jacksonville, Florida, portion of the Republican National Convention next month, citing the raging coronavirus crisis.
Speaking from the White House briefing room, Mr. Trump said delegates will formally nominate him in Charlotte, North Carolina, but he did not announce where his speech will take place. Much of the convention had already been moved from its original site in Charlotte to Jacksonville.
Posted in GOP, Jacksonville
Tagged 2012 Democratic National Convention, 2020 Republican National Convention
Comments Off on GOP gives up on Jacksonville convention
Bleeding Kansas
In two weeks, Kansas and Missouri will have their state and federal primaries. (There are also primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.) While on the Missouri side of the state line, the biggest race is actually a ballot issue (Medicare expansion which is expected to pass), Kansas has some major races on the Republican primary ballot.
The big one is the U.S. Senate race. The incumbent Senator — Pat Roberts — is a conservative Republican. However, that is not enough to guarantee a win in the Republican primary, and Senator Roberts had a tough race in 2014 (only getting 48% of the primary vote for an 8% margin). Senator Roberts has decided that forty years in Congress (sixteen in the House and twenty-four in the Senate) is enough and it’s time to enjoy retirement. And eleven Republicans decided that their names would sound so much better with Senator in front of it.
At this point in the race, it appears that there are three major contenders. The establishment choice is very conservative Representative Roger Marshall. Marshall represents the first district of Kansas which covers western and north central Kansas. Meanwhile, the Tea Party candidate is Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach. Folks may remember former Secretary of State Kobach as the Republican who lost the governor’s seat in 2018 or as the author of much of the anti-immigrant legislation passed over the past decade. Finally, there is Bob (Hamilton) the plumber. Hamilton runs a highly successful plumbing company in the Kansas City area and is trying to paint himself as a Trump clone.
Posted in GOP, House of Representatives, Primary Elections, Senate
Tagged Bob Hamilton, Kansas, Kris Kobach, Roger Marshall, Steve Watkins
Comments Off on Bleeding Kansas
The President and Subpoenas
Recently, the United States Supreme Court issued two opinions concerning the ability of different entities to issue subpoenas to a president. As the two cases involved different entities issuing subpoenas, the opinions treated them very differently.
The first case, Vance, involved a state grand jury subpoena. Over the years, the Supreme Court has considered a significant number of cases involving subpoena. Some involved subpoenas issued to private parties. Others considered federal criminal subpoenas issued to the president. The Supreme Court has also considered federal civil cases involving a president. The sum total of these prior cases is that there are rules limiting the issuance of a subpoena. In light of these cases, the Supreme Court decided that there was no blanket exemption that permitted a president to challenge a state grand jury subpoena. Nor is there a significantly different standard when the case involves a president. Instead the ordinary considerations (whether the subpoena is appropriately designed to seek information relevant to the inquiry) usually control. However, while it is not a heightened standard, a court should consider the degree to which the subpoena may interfere with presidential duty in determining whether to grant any relief from the subpoenas. In other words, the State does not need to make a different showing to justify a subpoena to a president than it would to justify a subpoena to an average business, but the president may have unique grounds that he can raise to block the subpoena.
The judge hearing the case seeking to quash the grand jury subpoena has already begun the process for considering any new objections that the president may raise (and the Supreme Court has issued its judgment in that case early). So we may get a final decision soon. However, the material will then be part of the confidential grand jury case. Thus, any financial records will not be public in the near future.
Posted in Donald Trump, House of Representatives, Judicial
Tagged Supreme Court, Trump subpoenas
Comments Off on The President and Subpoenas
Primary Day
Today is primary day in three states. In two of the three (Alabama and Texas), it is actually primary run-off day as the first round of voting occurred prior to COVID-19 becoming a household word. In the other state (Maine). today is the actual primary day. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in its primary which means that voters are casting votes for all rounds of the election today. In all three states, there are senate primaries to choose challengers, and the results could matter in November.
In Alabama, you have former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions seeking to get his job back against former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville. Besides his coaching experience, Coach Tuberville appears to have relocated to Florida until just recently and has some ties to some hedge fund fraud. All of which makes him Trump’s type of candidate as Trump wants to stick it to Attorney General Sessions for only bending the law into a pretzel on some occasions and actually realizing that it would be unethical to head an investigation into a campaign in which he played a significant role. Now, it’s going to be hard for Democrats to keep this seat in November, but I would rather be running against the former coach for Auburn (the “second” school in Alabama) in the hopes that some Alabama fans who would normally vote Republican might have trouble voting for somebody from Auburn. Additionally, the scandal involving Coach Tuberville might just become a big deal by November allowing us to narrowly keep the seat over a flawed Republican candidate. While Democrats rightly loathe the positions that Jeff Sessions took as Attorney General, Alabama is still a deep red state. If Trump and Sessions decide that they have to make nice after the primary, I think it would be almost impossible to beat Sessions in November.
In Texas, you have almost a replay of the recent Kentucky primary. The preferred candidate of the national party is a moderate, white, female, military veteran (MJ Hegar). The other choice is a progressive, male, African-American, state legislator (Royce West). And, like in Kentucky, you have an incumbent Republican member of the party leadership (John Conryn) who will be a favorite for re-election but could be beatable with the right candidate.
Posted in Primary Elections, Senate
Tagged Alabama, Betsy Sweet, Bre Kidman, Doug Jones, Jeff Sessions, John Conryn, Maine, MJ Hegar, Royce West, Sara Gideon, Susan Collins, Texas, Tommy Tuberville
Comments Off on Primary Day
GOP convention plans remain in flux
Even Trump is starting to face reality:
After a venue change, spiking coronavirus cases and a sharp recession, Trump aides and allies are increasingly questioning whether it’s worth the trouble, and some are advocating that the convention be scrapped altogether.
..
How to Win in November: A Personal Plan
You want to be sure that the Orange Menace and his minions are ousted this November. But you don’t know what YOU can do. Sure, you can give money and hope that you can find a way to help the campaigns. And they will reach out to people like you, who are already committed to voting. And they will pick cohorts that they believe are persuadable. But they will miss people.
There is something that YOU can do, and you can start today. It’s based on the old concept of the telephone tree. As Nancy Pelosi said: “Own the ground. Don’t give one grain of sand. Get everybody out.”
Here’s the high level plan:
Posted in 2020 General Election
Comments Off on How to Win in November: A Personal Plan
Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
Since the delegates won’t be in Milwaukee, voting at the 2020 Democratic Convention will be done by state, and by email:
Jason Rae, the Secretary of the Democratic National Committee, informed all certified delegates in a letter on Friday that voting on convention business will take place from August 3-15, with each delegate receiving a ballot specifically tailored to the delegate via “individualized and series identifiers.” …“Given the pandemic, the (Democratic National Convention Committee) has developed a voting system that will allow convention delegates to safely and securely cast ballots for all required votes. Each delegate will be sent an individualized ballot with unique identifiers via email,” reads Rae’s letter. “During the voting period, each certified delegate will receive a ballot and directions for completing and returning the ballot electronically.”
The process, according to the letter, will work like this: A delegate will fill out their ballot, which will includes questions about the Democratic platform and the party’s nominee, and send it to their state’s Democratic Party. Once a state party has all the ballots from their delegation, the state delegation’s chair “will submit a tally sheet to the Secretary’s Office that formally records the number of votes cast on each item of convention business,” Rae’s letter reads. The votes will be counted all at once on August 15, not as they come in. – CNN
Native Americans and the Supreme Court
While most of the news coverage of Thursday’s decisions focused on Donald Trump’s financial records, the other case on Thursday may be just as big. In that case — McGirt vs. Oklahoma — the Supreme Court had to decide who had the authority to try Native Americans for criminal offenses. And the story behind that case is 200+ years of the troubled relations between Native Americans and the descendants of the immigrants who gradually took over all of the land that used to belong to the original settlers.
While the story predates the founding of the United States, for lawyers, the story begins in 1787. At that time — and for most of the next 100 years — there were two United States. First, there was the nominal United States with borders set by treaties with European nations (which at that time were the only ones that counted to the Framers other than a handful of countries bordering the Mediterranean). Then there was the real United States defined by the current extent of settlements. Just over that border were the native tribes. And, the early conflicts involving the colonies revealed that the tribes were potential enemies that could ally with foreign powers or potential allies in those struggles. Thus the Constitution treated the tribes as being somewhat similar to foreign countries or the individual states with the federal government having exclusive authority over dealings with the tribes.
The rest of the story from that point on is one of treaties made and treaties broken as the various tribes were compelled to surrender parts (or all) of their original lands in exchange for guarantees of title to specific lands. One of these tragic stories was the Trail of Tears with many of the tribes (the Five Nations) in the southeastern U.S. moved to what is modern day Oklahoma. In the latter part of the nineteenth century, a series of acts opened up first the rest of Oklahoma and then part of the lands set aside to the native tribes for settlement by non-tribe members. Around the same time, there were several key developments. First, there were “allotment acts” which converted much of tribal land into private property owned by tribe members which could then be sold to non-members. Second, the various territories into which the tribes had been moved became states. Third, Congress passed laws dealing with crimes committed by natives.
Posted in Civil Rights, Identity Politics, Judicial
Tagged Major Crimes Act, Muskogee (Creek) Nation, Native Americans, Supreme Court
Comments Off on Native Americans and the Supreme Court