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Tag Archives: California
Primary Elections — Week of March 18
With the presidential nominations effectively wrapped up, the focus of primary season shifts to Congress. States face conflicting incentives in terms of primary scheduling. First, for presidential primaries, an early primary increases the chance that a state will vote before the nomination is effectively decided. But, especially a state with a part-time legislature that only meets in the Spring, a Summer primary allows the legislature to wrap up its business (with appropriate goodies for the districts of favored legislators facing a tough race) and gives the legislators time to spend back in their district campaigning. Second, it saves money for a state to combine presidential primaries with the primaries for other offices. Thus, only some of the states with early primaries for president also have the primaries for other offices on the same day.
This week, three states have primaries for “other” offices. The first is actually a special election. That election is to fill the seat created by Kevin McCarthy deciding that he did not want to return to just being a member of the House after he lost the vote of no confidence (technically motion to vacate the chair) last fall. For regular elections, California uses a “top two” primary in which, regardless of the vote for the leading candidate, the second-placed candidate advances to the general election. For special elections, if the leading candidate gets a majority, that candidate wins. If not, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates. Two weeks ago, there was the regular primary for the seat. Given how long it takes California to process its ballot, the race for second place is still too close to call. Given that most of the votes remaining appear to be from the county in which the current third-placed candidate finished ahead of the second-placed candidate, the primary may actually be recount close. Right now, the “second” Republican is still in second place. That should discourage Republicans from unifying behind the current leading candidate in the special election (as supporters of the Republican currently in second have hopes that their candidate will make the general election and do not want to make the leading candidate the incumber candidate). As the leading candidate did not get a majority in the primary, there is a good chance that there will be a runoff in this race. If the leading candidate (Kevin McCarthy’s handpicked candidate, Vince Fong) can get the majority, the Republicans get this seat back. If not, it remains vacant until after the runoff in two months (probably keeping the seat vacant through June). Needless to say, the Republicans in Washington are praying for an outright winner on Tuesday.
The next state on the list is Ohio. In recent years, ticket splitting has declined, and it has become harder for a Congressional candidate to win a state/district that voted for the presidential candidate of the other party. Currently, there are only senators (three Democrats and two Republicans) representing states won in 2020 by the other party. The three Democrats are up for election this year. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has decided that, despite his personal popularity in his state, the presidential margin is just too much to overcome. That leaves Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio to face their voters this year. Given that Ohio has been getting redder in recent years, Republicans are hopeful that whomever they nominate might win the seat in November to give the Republicans a senate majority. But with Republicans thinking that they can win, the primary attracted multiple candidates. The race originally looked like a three-person race. Objectively, if Republicans wanted somebody ready to be a senator, the obvious choice would be the current Secretary of State, Frank LaRose. But serving in an executive position requires actually following the law. And, while Secretary LaRose has definitely put his thumb on the scale as much as he can, those decisions disqualify him for “purists.” Neither of the other two candidates would be a strong contender if the Republican primary was being held in the real world. With Secretary LaRose struggling, the establishment has unified behind Matt Dolan. What Mr. Dolan has going for him is that his family is wealthy, and he has been willing to spend enough of his own money to be competitive (both this cycle and two years ago when he put up a solid fight in the primary for the other seat). The Trump candidate is Bernie Moreno. As was the case back in 2022, for Democrats choosing to participate in the Republican primary, the question is whether to vote for the weaker candidate (Moreno) to increase the odds of winning in the general election or to vote for the sanest candidate (Dolan) just in case Brown loses in November. The national party has run adds attacking Moreno as too extreme in the reverse psychology ploy to get Republicans to commit political suicide by nominating Moreno.
Special Elections 2024
Things are about to get very interesting in the House of Representatives. While there have been a large number of representatives who are not running for re-election. The irony of Republicans explaining their reason for leaving as the unpleasant environment in Congress is hard to miss. But the focus of this post is not on those leaving in January 2025. It is those who have left (involuntarily) or are about to be leaving mid-term.
At the present time, we have a vacancy in New York’s Third District due to the expulsion of fraudster who called himself George Santos. (And the fact that the majority of House Republicans did not want to expel him despite overwhelming evidence of fraud while wanting to open an impeachment of President Biden with no evidence says something about the shell of a serious political party that the Republicans have become). But we have also had announcements of the intent to resign in three other districts (so far) — California’s Twentieth District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy who will be leaving sometime later this month or in early January), New York’s Twenty-Sixth District (Democrat Brian Higgins who will be leaving in February), and Ohio’s Sixth District (Republican Bill Johnson who will be leaving in March).
These departures in the House will alter the size of the Republican majority in the House. The rules for vacancies in the House are different than the rules for vacancies in the Senate. Under the Seventeenth Amendment, the governor of each state can temporarily fill a vacancy in the Senate until an election can be held to fill the balance of the term. By contrast, there is no equivalent provision for the House. Thus a House seat remains vacant until there is a special election. For both the House and the Senate, the timing of the special election is left to the state. Especially for the Senate, there is a wide range of rules with some states leaving the appointee in office until the next regularly scheduled election (which can create the weirdness of having two elections for the same office — one for the last three to four weeks of the current term and one for the next term — at the same time) and others requiring a prompt special election. But the states also have different rules for the scheduling of House elections (and who chooses the candidates).
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives
Also tagged Bill Johnson, Brian Higgins, George Santos, Kevin McCarthy, New York, Ohio, special elections, vacancies
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The Supreme Court and State Governments
This year’s Supreme Court Term is now in the home stretch. All oral arguments have been completed, and all that is left is for the Supreme Court to issue the decisions in the case. (As of May 12, there are still 40 cases left to be decided over the next seven weeks.) On Thursday, the Supreme Court issues an opinion in one of the sleeper cases of the term — National Pork Producers Council vs. Ross.
The issue in the case is the validity of California’s laws requiring pork products sold in that state to meet certain criteria related to the proper treatment of the hogs prior to their slaughter. As one can imagine, pork producers in other states do not like having to change how they raise their livestock in order to sell pork in California. They would rather be able to find the most lenient state possible and raise their hogs in that state. So they filed a challenge to the regulation based on the so-called “Dormant” Commerce Clause. The Commerce Clauses gives Congress the authority to pass legislation that regulates interstate commerce. Over the years, the Supreme Court has inferred from that grant of authority that their is an implied (or in legal speak, dormant) aspect of that grant of power that limits the ability of states to regulate interstate commerce.
In deciding this challenge, we got a rather unique alignment of Supreme Court justices. And one of the reasons for that alignment is that Supreme Court decisions are not just about the current case. They are about the next case. The partisan politics of the Supreme Court (and it is impossible to deny that whatever used to be true, Supreme Court justices have become political actors placed on the court to serve specific political agendas) may dictate the preferred “rule of law” that the Supreme Court justices want to see in place including the blatant tossing out with little or no justification of long-established rules that contradict a justices preferred rule, but justices still like to apply those rules consistently from case to case. Thus, underlying the decision in this case is what type of analysis should the Supreme Corut apply to the next case in which a red state requires manufacturers to not adopt “liberal policies” to their production processes.
Posted in Judicial
Also tagged Dormant Commerce Clause, National Pork Producers Council, Supreme Court
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The Midterms-Preview (Part 5)
Finally, we reach the end of the evening. Five hours after the first polls closed in Kentucky and Indiana, we reach 10 p.m. Central ST. At this time the last polls close in North Dakota and Idaho (covered in part 4). Likewise, the remainder of the polls (representing the vast majority of the state) close in Oregon. And, even though both states have a significant number of mail-in votes (as is true for several of the western states discussed in earlier posts), the polls will close in California and Washington.
I’ll start with Washington. Washington has a top two primary (as does California). Unlike Califronia, all of the races feature a Democrat against a Republican. While there are some polls showing a potentially competitive race for Senate, I’m just not seeing it. Washington is too blue in recent years. Even in a red wave, Senator Patty Murray should win. Most of the polls making this state seem close come from polls sponsored by Republican-affiliated groups. While they may end up being right, even they are merely showing a close race. The current split in the House is seven Democrats and three Republicans. There are three seats that could flip. The Third District is currently held by the Republicans, but, in the primay, the incumbent representative barely finished in third after having the integrity to vote to impeach President Trump. Whether moderate Republicans will vote for the Democrat in the general and flip this seat — for the next two years to the Democrats — is the big question. In a red wave, the Republicans have a chance at taking the Eighth District and the Tenth District. The Tenth District (basically a swatch southwest of Seattle from Tacoma to Olympia) is more likely to stay Democratic. The Eighth District (an exurban/rural district to the east of Seattle) looks more like a swing district, but Democrats are still favored. Because of mail-in ballots, it typically takes several days to figure out who wins close races.
Moving south to Oregon, the big race is for Governor. And it’s a classic argument for ranked-choice voting. Business interests have pushed a moderate Democrat to run as an independent, and this candidate may take just enough votes to allow the Republicans to win by a narrow plurality. The race is a pure toss-up. Senator Ron Wyden is solidly favored to be reelected which might just have enough coattails to allow the Democrat to win the open race for governor. In the House, the current split is four Democrats to one Republican with one new seat. In the Fifth District, the Democratic incumbent lost in the primary to a progressive challenger. There is a risk that the progressive nominee is too progressive for the district which runs from the suburbs of Portland into a rural part of the state to the south and east of Portland. The Sixth District is the “new” district and is a little bit geographically smaller than the Fifth, but like the Fifth it runs from the immediate suburbs of Portland into the rural areas to the south and west of Portland. The Republicans also have outside chances in the Fourth District, an open seat, which runs along the Pacific Coast in the area to the south and west of the Fifth and Sixth. If the Democrats get all three of the seats, they could potentially keep the House. In a red wave, the Republicans could gain all three seats.
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged Alaska, Gain Newsome, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
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Election Backfires
Last month, I mentioned three elections scheduled for September. One of them — Germany scheduled for tomorrow — is a regular election at the expiration of the current parliamentary term. Two of them were not. In California, Republicans, thinking that his COVID policies made Governor Gavin Newsom vulnerable, pushed through a recall petition to force a recall election. In Canada, the governing Liberal Party, thought that favorable polls gave them a chance of turning their plurality into an actual majority.
The votes are now in. And both elections were a wash that mostly maintained the status quo.
In California, while early polls seemed to show a chance for the recall to succeed, the current vote totals are similar to the results of recent elections. With approximately 12.5 million votes counted (and only around 450,000 votes remaining to be counted), slightly over 62% of the votes are against the recall. The current counted votes are very similar to the final count from the 2018 election with the “no” votes being approximately 60,000 more votes that Governor Newsom got in 2018 and the “yes” votes being approximately 20,000 fewer votes than the Republican candidate got in 2018.
Mid-Summer Hodgepodge
The last couple of weeks have had a mix of news that leaves so many possible topics for a post (and some may get a follow-up).
First, before taking their August recess (or in Congress-speak “District Work Period”), the Senate passed the infrastructure bill and the budget resolution that will be the basis for a reconciliation bill when Congress returns. The House will take up these two items when the House returns. Progressives want to table the infrastructure bill until the reconciliation bill passes (to force moderates to support the reconciliation bill). Moderates want to finish up the infrastructure bill before something that happens that could doom that bill.
Second, the House will also be voting on the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. As expected, in the aftermath of this year’s Supreme Court decision in Brnovich undermining Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the bill has been expanded to fix both Section 2 and reinstate the preclearance requirements struck down in Shelby County. While there will almost certainly be changes in the House, the real debate will be when it gets to the Senate. The Republicans will attempt to block this bill, and it will be up to a handful of Democratic Senators to balance whether protecting the rights of African-Americans and other minority voters matters more than protecting the filibuster.
Posted in Uncategorized
Also tagged 2020 Census, Afghanistan, Canada, COVID-19, Germany, Infrastructure, redistricting, Voting Rights
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Redistricting — California
California is a hard state to analyze redistricting for several reasons.
First, there is the sheer number of districts. With 52 districts (down from 53) there are a lot of choices to make.
Second, besides the large population, you also have a very diverse population. The state as a whole is a minority-majority state. And there are enough Latino, African-American, and Asian-Americans that map makers have to consider whether it is possible to create influence districts (or even majority districts) for each of these groups.
Posted in Elections, House of Representatives
Also tagged 2020 Census, redistricting
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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers
On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get. As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.
The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation. We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million. As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand. Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district. While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.
If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska. Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives. If both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat). The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat. Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people. (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats.
Posted in House of Representatives
Also tagged 2020 Census, apportionment, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, redistricting, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia
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Where Things Stand
In part because of one sore loser, this year’s election seems to be the one that will not end. And that means that almost any post based on current information is no longer accurate several days later. As noted in previous posts, there are three big questions: 1) when are absentee ballots due; 2) when will the vote be certified; and 3) what states might be subject to recounts. There is also the never-ending litigation being filed by the Trump campaign.
At the present time, California is probably the biggest state in which we are still waiting for late absentee ballots with a deadline of Friday. At the time that I am writing this post, the margin in the Twenty-Fifth District is less than 100 votes; so late arriving ballots could be a key. In addition, a recount is a real possibility.
The other big state in which there remains a significant number of ballots to be counted is New York. At the present time, Democrats have apparently lost the Eleventh District (Staten Island). There are three Democratic districts that have not been called, but Democrats now lead in two of the three. There are also two Republican districts that have not been called, but the Republicans have significant leads in both. Whether the remaining votes will actually swing the districts is unclear.
Posted in 2020 General Election, Donald Trump
Also tagged Canvass, Certification, election contests, Georgia, Iowa, New York, recounts, Utah, Wisconsin
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