Category Archives: GOP

South Carolina Recap

It’s hard interpreting the Republican results for president this year.  If Donald Trump were the incumbent, the numbers that he is getting would be the sign of substantial opposition within the party.  If this year were a truly open primary (i.e. he was not being treated as the “incumbent candidate” by Republicans), his results would be outstanding.

But the bigger story out of Saturday might be at the Congressional District level and is about the House of Representatives, not the presidency.  Nikki Haley only won one of the seven congressional districts — the First District.  Nancy Mace is the current, two-term, incumbent.  She was one of the “Freedom Caucus Eight” who voted to vacate the chair.  Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning on supporting a primary challenger to Representative Mace.  Does the fact that Nikki Haley got 53% of the vote show that a majority of the Republicans in the First District will support an establishment challenger to a Trumpist candidate.  If so, the Representative Mace’s time in Congress might be coming to a quick end.  Additionally, while the lines were a little different, the last time that the Republicans were this divided and supported the more extreme primary candidate, the Democrats managed to win this district (in 2018).  So, if the Democrats find a credible candidate for the general and Representative Mace wins the primary, perhaps enough real Republicans do not vote in the general or opt to vote for the Democrat to take this seat away from the Freedom Caucus.

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The Trump Ballot Case and the Precedents of Nat Turner and John Brown

On Friday, the United Staes Supreme Court decided to grant President Trump’s Petition for Certiorari in Trump vs. Anderson.  However, it took no action on the companion Petition for Certiorari filed by the Colorado Republican Party in Colorado State Republican Central Committee v. Anderson.  Before turning to the issues raised in this case, there are two things to note about the Supreme Court order granting review and the petitions filed.

First, in granting Trump’s petition, the Supreme Court implicitly recognized the necessity to resolve this issue quickly.  The briefs of Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party (and related organizations) are due on January 18, less than two weeks after the order granting review (as opposed to the usual 45 days).  The briefs of Trump’s challengers and the Colorado election official who are in the middle of this case are due thirteen days later on January 31 (along with any outside brief from individuals who want to support Democracy) with any reply briefs due five days later on February 5.  This contrast to the normal deadlines of 45 days for petitioner’s brief with respondent’s brief due 30 days later and the reply brief an additional 35 days later. Additionally, the case will be argued on February 8 which is a special setting in the middle of what would otherwise have been the Supreme Court’s winter break.

Second, the Supreme Court did not rewrite Trump’s question presented.  Typically, the question prsented in a petition for certiorari is narrowly focused on one legal issue.  For example, did the lower court err in finding that the potential for the metabolizing of blood alcohol content is an automatic exigent circumstance permitting law enforcement officers to conduct a warrantless blood draw?  If there are multiple issues in a case, the petition will present multiple questions on which the Supreme Court can pick and choose which issues will be considered at the time that the petition is granted.  For example, the Colorado Republican Party presented three issues:  1) does Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment apply to the President; 2) is Section 3 self-executing; and 3) does disqualifying a candidate violate the First Amendment rights of political parties.  By contrast, the Trump Petition, after noting the ruling (that his actions and the office of President fell within the restrictions of Section) simply asks whether the Colorado Supreme Court erred by excluding him from the ballot.  In other words, unlike the usual question which identifies a specific legal error in the ruling, the Supreme Court appears to be allowing the consideration of any potential theory on why the Colorado Supreme Court erred. Continue Reading...

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RNC: Convention is about “Economic Development”, not Trump

This is the funniest thing I’ve seen in a long time.  The Host Committee for the 2024 Republican Convention is telling donors that “the convention is about economic development and not who the nominee will be”:

Republican organizers are turning to donors — including some Democrats — to fund their 2024 convention, even if they don’t like former President Donald Trump.

Reince Priebus, chair of the Milwaukee 2024 Host Committee, acknowledged in an exclusive interview with POLITICO that the pitch requires some finesse. Continue Reading...

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GOP chooses Houston for 2028 Convention

This is the first time ever a convention site has been chosen prior to the earlier convention even being held:

The Republican Party will host its 2028 convention in Houston, party officials decided in a private meeting on Friday.

Continue Reading...

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Direct Democracy in Ohio

This Tuesday, voters in Ohio will decide the future of direct democracy in Ohio.  For the most part, the U.S., like many other democracies is a republic.  In other words, the usual way that laws get made is through the legislative process with elected representatives debating, amending, and voting on proposals.  In theory, the will of the majority is expressed through their representatives.  A little over a century ago, reformers during the Progressive Era argued that there were flaws in the representative system that sometimes allowed a minority to block useful and popular legislation.  The remedy was the initiative and referendum process which allowed ordinary voters to get proposals on the ballot were they could be directly determined by the voters.

Now, not every state has authorized the initiative and referendum process.  Even in those that do, the rules differ as to how many signatures are required.  However, for the most part, states that allow for direct democracy (whether through proposals initiated by voters or by proposals referred to the voters by the government) only require a simple majority for the proposal to pass.

Even from the beginning, there has been resistance to the initiative and referendum process.  After all, special interests that are able to get what they want from elected officials do not like the voters having the ability to override those efforts. Continue Reading...

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What the Indictment Might Mean for 2024

To begin with the obvious, an indictment is a document used to formally bring criminal charges against an individual (here the Orange Menace).  Under the law, all criminal defendants are presumed to be innocent of the charged offense, and the prosecution has the burden to present sufficient evidence to convince twelve jurors to unanimously agree that the evidence proves that defendant guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

There is no precise timetable for when a case must go to trial.  The U.S. Supreme Court has held that, as a matter of federal constitutional law, a trial begun within eight months of charges being filed is sufficiently speedy to satisfy the speedy trial clause of the U.S. Constitution.  If, as often happens, it takes more than eight months to bring a case to trial, the courts then use a balancing test to decide how long is too long.  In theory, Trump might be able to delay the trial until after the 2024 election.  If he succeeds in this goal, the problems for him will be mostly how much of a distraction the pending case(s) will be (both in terms of time and money) and how voters react to the charges.  While it’s too early to tell for sure, the initial reaction of voters seems to be that the true believers will see any accusation against their god as persecution and an attempt to block them from electing him.  This groups might be just enough to get him the Republican nomination, but this group is not large enough to get him elected.  On the other hand, a significant group of swing voters seem to be tired of the chaos and criminality associated with Trump, and these charges (unless something else comes out to undermine them) seem likely to make it harder for Trump to win the general election.

The “interesting” questions come when Trump is convicted.  (Most defendants are convicted.  While there is an old saying that a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich, that saying is only half true.  Yes, the prosecution controls what a grand jury hears, but they still need some credible evidence that the defendant committed a crime.  And, after you get the indictment, you still need to win a trial.  While some prosecutors might put the hand slightly on the scale to get an indictment in a case that is a close call, it does little good to bring charges when your evidence is so weak that you have no chance at getting a conviction.)  And this is a question of ballot laws in the fifty states (plus D.C.) and the rules of the Republican Party. Continue Reading...

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GOP panel recommends Milwaukee to host 2024 convention

Looks like Milwaukee will be the host of back-to-back conventions from different parties:

“Today, the Site Selection Committee voted to recommend Milwaukee to host the 2024 Republican National Convention and it is a testament to the forthright and professional behavior embraced by Milwaukee’s city leaders throughout the process. A final decision will be made by Chairwoman [Ronna] McDaniel and the full RNC in the coming weeks.” RNC senior adviser Richard Walters said in a statement.

Milwaukee beat out Nashville in Friday’s selection vote. Nashville’s bid to host the convention hit a roadblock last Tuesday when two city council members pulled the draft agreement to host the convention from the council’s agenda at the last minute.

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Milwaukee bid for 2024 GOP Convention hits roadbumps

A couple of recent stories out of Milwaukee are hinting at possible problems for the front-runner’s bid to host the 2024 Republican National Convention.

First, and not surprisingly, liberal groups are pressuring the city to withdraw its bid:

Five left-leaning community and labor groups on Tuesday called for Milwaukee leaders to reject the 2024 Republican National Convention that Mayor Cavalier Johnson has been working to win. Continue Reading...

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GOP narrows 2024 convention choices to Milwaukee and Nashville

And then there were two:

Last week, the RNC’s site selection committee voted to eliminate Salt Lake City from contention as host city of the 2024 Republican National Convention. (Sources tell Playbook that SLC will, however, be considered for 2028.)

That leaves two cities left for 2024: Milwaukee and Nashville. We’re told that RNC Chair RONNA MCDANIEL was in Milwaukee on Wednesday to meet with the mayor and members of the host committee. Representatives of both cities will be in Washington next week to make their final pitches to the RNC’s site selection committee. Continue Reading...

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Pittsburgh drops out of running for 2024 GOP convention

Catching up on some recent news, Pittsburgh is no longer bidding to host the 2024 Republican National Convention:

RNC members tasked with considering the finalist cities’ pitches are scheduled to visit Nashville and Milwaukee, but not Pittsburgh. The only Eastern city in the hunt was initially expected to host a reception for attendees of the RNC’s winter meeting, which is also being held this week in Salt Lake City, but declined to do so.

Several people with knowledge of the site selection plan said Pittsburgh is likely no longer being considered, and a Pennsylvania Republican official familiar with talks about the convention said Friday they had just received word that Pittsburgh “was no longer in the running for the 2024 RNC convention.” Continue Reading...

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