Tag Archives: Wisconsin

The Midterms — Preview (Part 3)

By tmess2 | Published November 2, 2022

By the time that polls close in Arkansas at 7:30 p.m. Central ST, we should be starting to get votes from the early states, but most of the key races will still be classified as “too early to call.”  Arkansas has become so red over the past two decades that none of the races are likely to be close.  The big races will be the ballot issue.  From the right is a proposition to require supermajorities for propositions in future elections and a provision enshrining a version of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act in the Arkansas Constitution.  As we have seen at the federal level, this Free Exercise Clause on steroids will cause significant problems in Arkansas as everything will become somebody’s religious belief.  Arkansas will also vote on legalizing marijuana.

At 8:00 p.m. CST, polls will close in the remaining parts of Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas (with those races covered in Part 2 of the preview).    Polls will close for the entire state in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Arizona will feature several key races.  At the state office level, Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State are all open seats.  The Republicans have nominated Trumpist candidates for these positions who refuse to commit to recognizing the election results in 2024.   Particularly for governor, they have nominated a media celebrity who is not qualified.  But these races are currently too close to call.  For Senate, the Republicans have also nominated an extremist.  It looks like Senator Mark Kelly will hold onto the seat, but the seat is probably the third most likely pickup for the Republicans after Nevada and Georgia.   If the Republicans have a good night, that seat could flip. Continue Reading...

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The Fall Campaign

By tmess2 | Published September 4, 2022

Traditionally, Labor Day Weekend was seen as the start of the Fall campaign (at least by the media).  If that was ever true, it no longer is.  With cable and websites like Facebook and Youtube, there are a lot of relatively inexpensive way to get advertisements out during July and August.  If a campaign waits unti September to begin its ad campaign, the other side has already defined the race.

But, by this point in the cycle, we are down to the last handful of primaries, and the national committees and big PACS are already looking to decide where they are going to be spending the big bucks in late September and early October.  (As the change in the mechanism for advertising has obliterated Labor Day as the start of the fall campaign, the change in voting habits (with a significant percentage casting early votes or mail-in ballots) has also altered when the big final push begins.  While, in a close race, last minute news and ads can make a difference, it is just as important to get as many votes locked in as early as possible so that the last-minute spending can be focused on a tiny number of votes.

But that is the inside baseball stuff of campaigns.  The purpose of this post is to set the stage for the next eight weeks.  For the past two years, Democrats have had the frustration of a very narrow margin in the House of Representatives and a dead-even Senate.  Because Nancy Pelosi may be one of the all-time great Speakers, Democrats have been mostly able to pass things in the House.  The Senate, however, has been very, very difficult.  The filibuster rules has limited the Democrats to passing anything significant via the reconciliation process.  Even the reconciliation process requires keeping the entire Democratic caucus together which has proven difficult as a single member can insist on changes to any proposal.  And the  lack of a majority has also prevented any changes to the filibuster rule (again due to the ability a single Democrat to veto any proposed change). Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Court and Elections — Post 2020 Editions

By tmess2 | Published March 7, 2021

This past argument session (the February Session) saw the last gasps of the 2020 election.  There were three very different issues on the table:  1) the Trump attempts to overturn the election for alleged failure to follow election procedures: 2) the role of state legislatures, state election officials, state courts, and federal courts in setting the rules for election; and 3) the Voting Rights Act.

On the first issue, there are apparently two cases still pending at the U.S. Supreme Court — one a Wisconsin case that will likely be turned down on the March 8 order list and the other will not be considered until later (either the March 19 or March 26 conference).  The second one is a Pennsylvania case involving the issue discussed below.  Assuming that the Wisconsin case is denied, the Supreme Court will have denied Trump’s requests for review in all of the cases involving alleged fraud in the election over the past several weeks.

The second issue is likely to arise again.  Article I, Section 4, Clause 1 gives the primary authority to set the “times, places, and manner” of congressional elections to the “legislature” of each state subject to the ability of Congress to also legislate on these issues.  Similarly, Article II, Section 1, Clause 1 gives the power to direct the “manner” of choosing electors to the “legislature” of each state.  In recent years, there has been a significant amount of litigation involving these clauses.  There are two key legal questions:  1) what is the scope of “manner”; and 2) what is the “legislature.” Continue Reading...

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2022 Elections — A First Glance

By tmess2 | Published January 30, 2021

The 2020 elections left both the House and the Senate closely divided.  And two years is a long time in politics.  But experience has taught politicians two, somewhat contradictory, things that will impact what can get done during the next two years.

The first, especially for the House of Representatives, is that the President’s party typically loses seats.  But the reason for this normal rule is that a new President has typically helped members of his party to flip seats.  As such, this might be less true for 2022 than in the past.  In 2020, the Democrats only won three new seats, and two were the results of North Carolina having to fix its extreme gerrymander.  And only a handful of Democratic incumbents won close races.  And the rule is less consistent for the Senate, in large part because the Senators up for election are not the ones who ran with the President in the most recent election but the ones who ran with the prior president six years earlier.  In other words, the President’s party tends to be more vulnerable in the Senate in the midterms of the second term than in the midterms of the first term.  But the likelihood that the President’s party will lose seats is an incentive to do as much as possible during the first two years.

The second is that one cause of the swing may be overreach — that voters are trying to check a President who is going further than the voters actually wanted.  This theory assumes that there are enough swing voters who really want centrist policies and that they switch sides frequently to keep either party from passing more “extreme” policies.  Polls do not really support this theory and there is an argument that, at least part of the mid-term problem, could be the failure to follow through on all of the promises leading to less enthusiasm with the base.  But this theory is a reason for taking things slowly and focusing on immediate necessities first and putting the “wish list” on hold until after the mid-terms. Continue Reading...

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Electoral College

By tmess2 | Published December 13, 2020

One of the often misunderstood aspects of U.S. elections is how the popular vote relates to the election of the President.  While, in the majority of the states, the ballot simply lists the candidates for President (along with the Vice-Presidential running mate), voters are effectively voting for a slate of electors.  The winning slate in each state then assembles on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December at the location and time designated by that state.  After assembling, the electors for the state cast a vote for President and a vote for Vice-President.  The votes are then counted, and the electors complete six certificates of vote recording the votes of the electors for that state.  Each certificate of vote is paired with one of the previously completed certificates of ascertainment.  Federal law then directs what happens with the six certificates of vote with one going to the President of the Senate (in practice, the clerk of the Senate), two to the national archives, two to the secretary of state of the individual state, and one to the federal district court for that state.

Normally, the meeting of the electoral college is a big ceremonial event.  With Covid-19 and the potential for protests to get out of control, it appears that most of the states are planning on holding scaled-down events.

The fringe element of Trump supporters (and President Putin) are hoping for some last minute drama for Monday, but that is practically impossible for several reasons.  First, earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld state laws requiring electors to vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged.  While states have different laws on so-called faithless electors,  the net effect of those laws is that sixty-nine Biden electors are from states that replace an elector and cancel the electors vote if the elector fails to follow through on their pledge, sixty are from states that fine the elector, seventy-one are from states with pledges but no enforcement provision, and one hundred six are from states with no law on this issue.  That means that, at most, there are 237 Biden electors who could defect. Continue Reading...

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Where Things Stand

By tmess2 | Published November 15, 2020

In part because of one sore loser, this year’s election seems to be the one that will not end.  And that means that almost any post based on current information is no longer accurate several days later.  As noted in previous posts, there are three big questions:  1) when are absentee ballots due; 2) when will the vote be certified; and 3) what states might be subject to recounts.  There is also the never-ending litigation being filed by the Trump campaign.

At the present time, California is probably the biggest state in which we are still waiting for late absentee ballots with a deadline of Friday.  At the time that I am writing this post, the margin in the Twenty-Fifth District is less than 100 votes; so late arriving ballots could be a key.  In addition, a recount is a real possibility.

The other big state in which there remains a significant number of ballots to be counted is New York.  At the present time, Democrats have apparently lost the Eleventh District (Staten Island).  There are three Democratic districts that have not been called, but Democrats now lead in two of the three.  There are also two Republican districts that have not been called, but the Republicans have significant leads in both.  Whether the remaining votes will actually swing the districts is unclear. Continue Reading...

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A recount primer

By tmess2 | Published November 6, 2020

We are now moving into the universe where aside from spinning fictional conspiracy theory, Donald Trump is, for all practical purposes, down to recounts to keep his slim hopes of avoiding an orange jump suit alive.

As with everything else about this election that we have talked about over the past three weeks, the basic rules for recounts are set by state law.  So looking at the states in which Trump is most likely to ask for a recount, here are the rules.

Arizona — In Arizona, the margin must be less than 0.1%.   Any such recount is automatic, and a candidate is not able to request a recount.  Assuming a final vote total of slightly under 4 million votes, the margin would have to slip under 4,000 to have a recount.  Apparently, in Arizona, the recount is done by rerunning the ballots through counting machines. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 3 (9 PM to 10 PM EST)

By tmess2 | Published October 29, 2020

As we noted in the previous two posts, a key part of the night will be how fast votes are counted and, in particular, what share of early and mail-in votes are released on election night and how many mail-in votes are potentially still in the mail and eligible to be counted.   There is also the issue of how long the lines were — especially in urban precincts — which could delay the count of votes cast on election day.  At this point in time, we should have projections from Kentucky and Indiana and the bluer and redder states from the 7 PM EST hour.  The question during this hour is whether we start getting projections from some of the swingier states with 7 PM closing times like Florida and Georgia have been called, and, if so, in which direction.

During this hour, nine states will close across the entire state and the remainder of the polls will close in Kansas, Michigan, South Dakota, and Texas.  South Dakota is unlikely to be close for any race, and the majority of Kansas and Texas close at 8 PM  EST.  What to look for in Michigan, Texas, and Kansas is addressed in Part Two.  Besides these partial closures, we have full closures in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wyoming.

Louisiana is a weird state in that there are no party primaries.  Everybody runs on the general election ballot, but it takes a majority to be elected.  While none of the races are expected to flip, there is always the chance that the sheer number of candidates on the ballot could result in a run-off.  Of course, some of these run-offs will feature two Republicans (or, in the one district that the Democrats hold, two Democrats).  Wyoming also features no close contests and should be an early call across the board. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Wisconsin (UPDATEDx3)

By tmess2 | Published April 2, 2020

As of this moment in time, it looks like Wisconsin will be proceeding with their April 7 primary, sort of.  The sort of is that a judge has extended the deadline for mail-in votes which — under the ruling — can be mailed in after April 7 as long as the ballots are received by April 13.  It is unclear whether the various local election authorities will still be releasing the in-person vote totals on April 7 or if the results will be held until April 13.  [UPDATE:  This morning, the judge who granted the extension on mail-in ballots issued a revised order requiring the election results to be held until the afternoon of April 13.  Effectively, that makes the party-run primary in Alaska — ballots due on April 10 with results to be released on April 11 — the next set of results that we will receive, unless an appellate court sets aside the current order which is always a possibility.  UPDATE 2:  On Monday afternoon, the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order staying the District Court’s ruling.  Under this order, all absentee ballots must be postmarked by April 7 and received by April 13.  Apparently, results can be released after the polls close, but that is not 100% clear.  UPDATE 3:  The state election authority in Wisconsin has directed local election officials that they should not release results until April 13 under the part of the court order that was not stayed.  It is unclear how binding that is and some local officials may release results earlier than April 13.]

We are now officially down to two candidates.  And that makes delegate math relatively simple barring the unlikely event of uncommitted getting delegates.  Wisconsin has eight congressional districts with between five and eleven delegates each.  At the state level, Wisconsin has ten party leader delegates and nineteen at-large delegates.  Overall, Wisconsin has eighty-four delegates.

The Seventh District has five delegates.  Whomever gets the most votes will win at least three delegates.  To get a 4-1 split, the winner needs 70% of the qualified vote. Continue Reading...

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2018 Mid-Term Election Preview — The Great Lakes

By tmess2 | Published October 27, 2018

The Great Lakes region has some opportunities for Democrats, but those opportunities are mostly in races for Governor due to the way that Republicans in the region drew congressional district lines after 2010.

Starting in Kentucky, there is no race for Governor or Senator.  Republicans currently have a five to one advantage in the congressional delegation.  Right now, Democrat Amy McGrath is a slight favorite to pick-up the Sixth District from the Republican incumbent.

In Ohio, it looks like the Democrats are in pretty good shape to hold its Senate seat.  The race for Governor appears to be too close to call.  Ohio is another state where gerrymandering has led to a very distorted congressional delegation.  Republicans currently hold twelve of sixteen seats.  The Democrats have a decent shot (but are still underdogs) in the rematch of the recent special election in the Twelfth District.   The Democrats have outside shots in five districts, but it is almost certain that, even while possibly losing the state-wide vote, Republicans will control the majority of the Ohio seats in the next Congress. Continue Reading...

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