Monthly Archives: October 2016

Supreme Court and Politics

no_more_hate (2)In setting up the federal judiciary, the Framers wanted to separate the judiciary from politics to a certain degree.  By giving judges and justices an unlimited term, judges would be free from having to decide cases on what is currently popular.  Not that the courts would be absolutely immune from politics, but the influence of politics on the courts would be that elections to the “political” branches would be in the choice of new judges and justices to fill vacancies.  The courts would be “conservative” in the sense of reflecting the values of the time at which judges or justices were appointed with a gradual change reflecting changes in those values over time through the appointment of new judges and justices.  (On the Supreme Court, nine of seventeen Chief Justices served more than a decade, and thirteen of seventeen served more than six years.  Of the Associate Justices sixty-eight of one hundred have served more than ten years, and another thirteen have served more than six years.)

The fact that federal judges do not have to stand for election does not mean that judges are not political or aware of politics.  To ask that judges not view close legal issues through a certain political philosophy and that judges not be aware of the potential impact of decisions on elections is asking too much.  However, the Supreme Court wants the public to perceive that they are above politics and would prefer that the Supreme Court rank somewhat low on the list of important issues in any election.  This desire to “lay low” has been reflected in pushing off the arguments on the most controversial cases until after the election (or even later for cases that might currently reflect a 4-4 split).  Even in terms of which cases are being granted for review later this year, the Supreme Court was avoiding cases that were likely to generate headlines.  That changed yesterday when the Supreme Court issued its order reflecting which cases it had just accepted for full review.  While none of the cases on the list are surprises in terms of the Supreme Court granting review, two of the cases are highly controversial — one dealing with transgender rights and the other with sex offenders and the First Amendment — and most expected the Supreme Court to push a decision on reviewing those two cases until after the election, particularly with the election controlling who gets to fill the current vacancy on the Supreme Court.

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Vote Suppression 2016

Save the WorldToday’s news included an “off-the-record” admission from inside the Trump campaign that they are trying to suppress the vote.   This admission is not news for many Democrats.  It is an open secret in this country that low turnout usually favors Republicans, while higher turnout tends to favor Democrats.  In 2016, voter suppression takes three forms.

First, voter suppression can be built into the election system itself.  For example, unlike many democracies, the U.S. holds elections on a weekday (not just the general election, but also, in most states, primaries and municipal and special elections).  In most, if not all states, election days are not a holiday.  That makes it harder for folks to vote.  Additionally, there are hurdles to registering to vote (fewer today than in the past).  In particular, most states cut off registration weeks in advance of the election and you have to register every time that you move to a new county.

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What We Are

This video talks about what it means to be a Democrat. Watch it. Listen. REMEMBER that we Democrats are not just an election, and we are not individual candidates, we are all of us. We are our voices, our values, and our history. Are we all perfect 100% of the time? Certainly not: but our record is truly something of which we can be very proud.

So now that you’re proud, take step two and watch my favourite political video of all time.

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DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 321-217, Clinton’s biggest lead of the year, up from our last forecast showing Clinton up 313-225.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state, which has been Wisconsin since August.

One thing we’re watching is the number of Tossups at the tipping point or higher. This week we’re still at 2: CO and WI. As long as those Tossups in the Blue Wall are out there, that means there are forecasters (we’re looking at you, Rothenberg) who are saying if Trump wins all the Tossups, he has a path to win. Continue Reading...

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DCW 2016 Senate Forecast

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Senate Forecast, showing the Democrats projected to win 50.3 seats. Assuming the Dems take over the seats in WI and IL, we need 3 additional seats from IN/NV/MO/NC/NH/PA.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts, including own own DocJess. The 3rd column shows a running total of Senate seats.

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Sunday with the Senators: Saturday Edition

Vote by JessWe’re 17 days out from the election, and while the main event seems like a foregone conclusion, the Senate is pretty much a nail-biter. Matt will have the Senate race rankings up tonight and we’ll see the specifics, but first, a little context, and a race that no one is looking at, which may actually delay knowing who controls the Senate until 10 December.

Let’s play. We need a net of 4 seats to take back the Senate, assuming that Secretary Clinton wins the general, and thus Tim Kaine would be the tie-breaker. Based on current projections, we’ll pick up Indiana, Wisconsin and Illinois. Will we hold Nevada? Maybe. If we do we need one more, if not, we need two. The likeliest options should be Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Should be. Could be. The data indicate that if Secretary Clinton wins by 7 points in Pennsylvania and 6 points in New Hampshire, her coattails will be enough. I have been following New Hampshire from a distance and it appears very close. Ayotte is constantly tied to Trump in ads. For some reason, a lot of politicians don’t seem to get that everyone has a phone, and thus video capabilities, and when you call Donald Trump “a role model” that’s going to make the ads even if you disavow some of his actions. A lot will depend on how much money is poured into the ads in the next couple weeks. The polls have been tied, and just yesterday WMUR said that Hassan is 8 points ahead: is it an outlier or has the die been cast?

Pennsylvania is so tight there’s no daylight in the polls. Brooklyn knows this and that’s why both Clinton and Kaine will be in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia today. Should be noted that Secretary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, Senator Kaine, President and Mrs. Obama, Vice President Biden and even Bubba the Big Dog have all been here. Upcoming in the next two weeks, Anne Holton (Senator Kaine’s wife), Jill Biden, Jon Bon Jovi and Katy Perry.  It seems as though the street closure information is an almost daily occurrence on the traffic reports. Continue Reading...

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The Supreme Fillibuster

US SenateWhen Justice Antonin Scalia died, Senate Republicans announced that they would not hold hearings because of their belief — not supported by any precedent — that a lame duck president should not get to fill a vacancy during his last year in office.   Earlier this week, in a classic gaffe (i.e. he mistakenly told the truth), Senator John McCain announced that Senate Republicans intend to block any nominee that President Hillary Clinton might put forward.  While Senator McCain has attempted to walk back this statement, he revealed what many of us have known to be true all along — the Republicans do not have any problem with any specific nominee that President Obama has or that President Clinton might put forward; there problem is with losing the majority on the Supreme Court.

If the Republicans can keep their current Senate majority, the process of blocking all nominees is simple — although with potential political consequences.  They simply vote down any nominee.  Their problem is if, as current polls suggest, the Democrats regain the Senate majority for the next two years.  If that happens, we are potentially looking at the next conflict over the filibuster.

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Define “Disqualifying”

constitution_of_the_united_states_page_1Last night’s debate had The Donald saying that there were things that “disqualified” Secretary Clinton from running for president. Idiot. The “qualifying” factors are being a natural born American citizen who has achieved at least the age of 35, and lived 14 years in the US. My source? Article II, Section 1. Consider it a low bar. A lot of pundits said after that Donald’s “I’ll keep you in suspense” comment disqualified him from the presidency. Again, keep up with your source documentation.

HOWEVER. The United States is the only country in the history of the world with free scheduled elections, held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday every November since 1789 followed by the bloodless transfer of power. If you’ve ever met me, you’ve heard me say that. ME. Who hasn’t left the house without a copy of the constitution on her since leaving for college. Because the Constitution matters.

Today we will see what matters most to the GOP leadership and the GOP candidates. Which matters more to them: the Constitution or sticking with the titular leader of their splintering party? One can’t even parse it: our elections have been legitimate for  227 years, it’s what we do. Without it, we have no Constitution to rely on as a basis of the rule of law. Donald is the nominee of his party and it is up to us, the voters, to disqualify him from office solely by voting for Hillary Clinton for President of the United States. It’s what elections are for: to hopefully make the correct choice. VOTE. Bring 5 friends.

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DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 313-225, up from our last forecast showing Clinton up 307-231.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state, which has been Wisconsin since August.

One thing we’re watching is the number of Tossups at the tipping point or higher. Last time there were 4 Tossups, 1 (out of 8 forecasts) each for CO, PA, NH and WI. This week we’re down to 2: CO and WI. But as long as those Tossups in the Blue Wall are out there, that means there are forecasters who are saying if Trump wins all the Tossups, he has a path to win. Continue Reading...

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The Republican Leaning Voter

VotingBoothImage_0In theory, this election should pose a significant dilemma for the Republican or the Republican-leaning voter.  A plurality of the Republican party has foisted on the voters of America someone who is unfit for any office.  If voters voted for the candidate who was closest to their position, Trump would be struggling to break 25% and would be potentially looking at losing every state.  Instead he is looking at getting around 75-80% of the vote from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (those who identify as independents but vote Republican in most races).  There are multiple reasons for Trump’s ability to hold onto most Republican voters (which explain why the Republican Party is not yet at the point of splitting).

The first and most significant is party loyalty.  Especially among those who opt to vote in the primaries, there is an investment in the party and its future.  Participating in a primary is an implicit agreement with other members of your party that, as a group, you will put together a ticket — top to bottom — that will represent the party in the elections.  The exact platform that the party will pursue in office will depend on the mix of candidates.  If other factions do well in the primaries, that platform may not suit your faction’s wishes perfectly, but you will live with that and try to do better in the next cycle of primaries.  It takes a dramatic change in the types of candidates who get elected (and typically several cycles) for a person to came to the conclusion that their party is no longer the party that they originally joined and that, on the issues that matter most to them, their policy preferences have no place in that party.

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