Welcome to the first edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast. The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The map shows the consensus view, the table shows each forecast that is used. We will be adding other forecasts as they become available. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. Right now, it’s currently Florida. The more things change…

Remember, these forecasts are lagging indicators They won’t reflect the latest state polls until the forecasts are updated, and the pundit-based polls are very slow to move. (Some had no movement throughout the 2012 election).

State		Cook	FHQ	NBC	ABC	WPost	Rothenberg
Update		5/25	6/16	5/6	6/8	5/23	5/19
Clinton	D	201	192	187	201	201	223
Clinton-Lean	DL	103	53	66	61	51	26
Tossup	T	43	119	94	85	95	98
Trump-Lean	RL	27	38	46	16	27	0
Trump	R	164	136	145	175	164	191
Clinton	D	304	245	253	262	252	249
Trump	R	191	174	191	191	191	191
Avg.	298	310	302	296	296	295	293
	240	228	237	242	243	243	245
California	55	D	D	D	D	D	D	55
DC	3	D	D	D	D	D	D	58
Delaware	3	D	D	D	D	D	D	61
Hawaii	4	D	D	D	D	D	D	65
Illinois	20	D	D	D	D	D	D	85
Maine	4	D	D	D	D	D	D	89
Maryland	10	D	D	D	D	D	D	99
Massachusetts	11	D	D	D	D	D	D	110
Minnesota	10	D	D	D	D	D	D	120
New York	29	D	D	D	D	D	D	149
Rhode Island	4	D	D	D	D	D	D	153
Vermont	3	D	D	D	D	D	D	156
Washington	12	D	D	D	D	D	D	168
Conn.	7	D	DL	D	D	D	D	175
New Jersey	14	D	D	DL	D	D	D	189
New Mexico	5	D	DL	D	D	D	D	194
Oregon	7	D	T	D	D	D	D	201
Michigan	16	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	D	217
Nevada	6	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	D	223
Pennsylvania	20	DL	T	DL	DL	DL	DL	243
Wisconsin	10	DL	D	DL	DL	T	T	253
Colorado	9	DL	DL	T	DL	DL	T	262
Florida	29	DL	T	T	T	T	T	291
Iowa	6	T	T	T	T	T	DL	297
New Hampshire	4	T	DL	T	T	T	T	301
Virginia	13	DL	T	T	T	T	T	314
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	T	T	T	329
Ohio	18	T	T	T	T	T	T	347
Arizona	11	RL	T	RL	R	RL	R	358
Georgia	16	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	R	374
Kansas	6	R	DL	R	R	R	R	380
Mississippi	6	R	RL	RL	R	R	R	386
Missouri	10	R	RL	RL	R	R	R	396
Montana	3	R	R	RL	R	R	R	399
Utah	6	R	RL	R	R	R	R	405
Alabama	9	R	R	R	R	R	R	414
Alaska	3	R	R	R	R	R	R	417
Arkansas	6	R	R	R	R	R	R	423
Idaho	4	R	R	R	R	R	R	427
Indiana	11	R	R	R	R	R	R	438
Kentucky	8	R	R	R	R	R	R	446
Louisiana	8	R	R	R	R	R	R	454
N. Dakota	3	R	R	R	R	R	R	457
Nebraska	5	R	R	R	R	R	R	462
Oklahoma	7	R	R	R	R	R	R	469
S. Carolina	9	R	R	R	R	R	R	478
S. Dakota	3	R	R	R	R	R	R	481
Tennessee	11	R	R	R	R	R	R	492
Texas	38	R	R	R	R	R	R	530
W. Virginia	5	R	R	R	R	R	R	535
Wyoming	3	R	R	R	R	R	R	538