DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published October 9, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 307-231. Our last forecast on Aug 21 showed Clinton up 313-225.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. It was Wisconsin in August, and it is still Wisconsin. Clinton’s blue firewall continues to hold (although it is not as strong as we would like) – but if she holds VA, CO NH, PA and WI, she can lose IA, OH, NV, NC and FL and still win.

While we haven’t published the forecast since August, the following graph shows the forecast since June, clearly showing Clinton’s post-convention bump, the September tightening, and Clinton’s recent gains.

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Links to all the forecasts are at the bottom of the post.

State TPM FHQ NBC Cook R’berg ABC CNN WPost
Update 10/9 10/9 10/7 9/29 9/30 10/6 9/22 10/4
Clinton D 263 178 182 214 217 201 201 196
Clinton-Lean DL 78 86 87 59 46 72 72 57
Tossup T 11 110 78 68 84 68 68 88
Trump-Lean RL 9 60 107 33 27 33 33 33
Trump R 177 104 84 164 164 164 164 164
Clinton Total D 341 264 269 273 263 273 273 253
Trump Total R 186 164 191 197 191 197 197 197
Clinton Avg 307 333 314 312 302 301 299 299 292
Trump Avg 231 205 224 226 236 237 239 239 246
California 55 D D D D D D D D 55
Conn. 7 D D D D D D D D 62
DC 3 D D D D D D D D 65
Delaware 3 D D D D D D D D 68
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D D D 72
Illinois 20 D D D D D D D D 92
Maryland 10 D D D D D D D D 102
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D D D 113
New Jersey 14 D D D D D D D D 127
New York 29 D D D D D D D D 156
Oregon 7 D D D D D D D D 163
Vermont 3 D D D D D D D D 166
Washington 12 D D D D D D D D 178
Rhode Island 4 D DL D D D D D D 182
Maine 4 D DL DL D D D D D 186
Minnesota 10 D DL DL D D D D D 196
New Mexico 5 D DL DL D D D D DL 201
Michigan 16 D DL DL DL D DL DL DL 217
Virginia 13 D DL DL D DL DL DL DL 230
Colorado 9 D T DL DL DL DL DL DL 239
New Hampshire 4 D DL T DL DL DL DL DL 243
Pennsylvania 20 D DL DL DL DL DL DL T 263
Wisconsin 10 DL DL DL DL T DL DL DL 273
Florida 29 DL T T T T T T T 302
N. Carolina 15 DL T T T T T T T 317
Nevada 6 DL T T T T T T T 323
Ohio 18 DL T T T T T T T 341
Iowa 6 RL T T RL T RL RL RL 347
Arizona 11 T T RL RL RL RL RL RL 358
Georgia 16 R T RL RL RL RL RL RL 374
Alaska 3 RL RL R R R R R R 377
Missouri 10 R RL RL R R R R R 387
S. Carolina 9 R RL RL R R R R R 396
Texas 38 R RL RL R R R R R 434
Indiana 11 R R RL R R R R R 445
Kansas 6 R R RL R R R R R 451
Utah 6 R R RL R R R R R 457
Alabama 9 R R R R R R R R 466
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R R R 472
Idaho 4 R R R R R R R R 476
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R R R 484
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R R R 492
Mississippi 6 R R R R R R R R 498
Montana 3 R R R R R R R R 501
N. Dakota 3 R R R R R R R R 504
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R R R 509
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R R R 516
S. Dakota 3 R R R R R R R R 519
Tennessee 11 R R R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R R R 538

TPM
FHQ
NBC
Washington Post
Cook
ABC
Rothenberg
CNN

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