Tag Archives: Establishment

Trump and the Future of the Republican Party

Regular readers of this blog know that a recurring topic of discussion has been how long the Republican Party can stay intact as it now is.  For forty years, the Republican Party has been a combination of nativist Dixiecrats, Christian Fundamentalists, economic libertarians, neo-conservatives, and the traditional moderate business establishment.  For most of the forty years, this coalition has been a con job with candidates using enough coded phrases and wedge issues on the campaign trail to keep the nativists and the fundamentalists happy at election time, but focusing primarily on keeping the neo-conservatives happy on foreign policy and the establishment happy on economic issues once in office.

For the first twenty years to thirty years this strategy worked well in most places.  The gradual increase of Hispanic citizens, however, is altering the demographics (at least in Presidential election years), making it difficult to keep the nativists happy and still have a chance at winning the presidential election.  (For Congress and state legislatures, the geographic dispersion of seats plus a little bit of gerrymandering will help the Republicans keep their heads above water for a little bit more).  At the same time, the grassroots are beginning to catch on to the con, and they are becoming restless.

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