Tag Archives: Vice-President

The VP Pick is?

According to the latest news, future president Joe Biden will be announcing his VP pick during the upcoming week.  (At the latest, it would be the following week with the virtual convention scheduled to start on August 17.)  As I noted two months ago, there are two things that go on behind the scenes which make guessing the name a fool’s errand — skeletons in the closet and personal compatibility.  Simply put, even if we knew what Joe Biden wanted in a candidate, we would not know what the vetting of the potential candidate revealed and among the three or four candidates who meet the wish list of qualities and survive vetting we would not know which one will “click” with Vice-President Biden.   But the third factor — political considerations — is something that we can talk about.

There are three aspects to political considerations:  1) the status quo (what the current state of play is in the race); 2) a guess about November (regardless of where things are now, what states will be in play in November); and 3) what are your goals for the next four years (how will the pick help your administration).  On the third consideration, it is always possible to pick a running mate that you will keep mostly on the sidelines (see Dan Quayle), but most recent presidents have wanted somebody who would be able to handle some of the heavy lifting after the election.

The reality is that most VP picks have limited impact on the political equation.  They may make a marginal difference in their home state, but, as long as they are generally qualified, they tend to disappear into the background over the campaign with people ultimately voting based on the presidential candidate.  But the VP pick does say something about the judgment of the presidential campaign and their vision for their administration.  So here are the basic questions that the campaign has to answer. Continue Reading...

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VP Sweepstakes

It appears from news reports that we are moving into stage 2 of the Biden campaign’s search for a vice-presidential nominee — the vetting process.  Broadly speaking, there are three things that influence the pick of a vice-presidential nominee:  1) vetting (anything that disqualifies a candidate); 2) political consideration; and 3) personal compatibility.

When it comes to vetting, everybody has something that could be used against them by the opposition.  Unless you have been living under a rock, every politician has voted for some bill or worked on some project that some people will not like (or at the very least can be twisted into something unpopular).  I have seen state and local races where ads have been run attacking candidates for using dedicated training funds to attend training programs in vacation-type locations.  (Not surprisingly, groups putting on these trainings tend to choose such locations because they are attractive to potential attendees.)  In short, a candidate does not have to have done something wrong for there to be an attack ad as long as the explanation of why there is nothing wrong takes a lot of time.  The real issue with vetting is not is there something out there, but which fights are the campaign willing to have.   We are likely never going to know which candidates are eliminated because of vetting.

Political considerations are, on the other hand, something that can easily be discussed and debated.  Every presidential candidate has strengths and weaknesses — some demographic, some experience, some political, and some geographic.  For example, the last several successful presidential candidates had minimal federal experience.  In each case, the candidate picked a running mate who had a decent amount of federal experience.  Given Vice-President Biden’s extensive federal experience, he can opt for a candidate with experience at the state level or a relatively short period of service at the federal level. Continue Reading...

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Vice-Presidential Selection — Republicans

In the old days, the presidential nomination was often unsettled until balloting began at the convention.  Under those rules, the winning candidate typically announced his preferred running mate on the morning of the last day of the convention.  Since 1984, with each party having a presumptive nominee heading into convention, the norm has been to name the preferred running mate before the convention, most often in the week before the convention.  Based on that history, Trump should name his VP pick sometime next week.

Right now, Trump’s pick may come down to who is willing to accept the nomination that is a viable pick.  Every time the press speculates on a candidate who might actually improve Trump’s chances, that candidate withdraws their name from consideration (most recently Bob Corker and Jodi Ernst).

Continue Reading...

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