Category Archives: Democrats

Ojeda out

By Matt | Published January 25, 2019

Ojeda’s the first candidate who was actually in, to drop:

Former West Virginia State Sen. Richard Ojeda ended his long-shot presidential bid on Friday. A leader of the state’s teachers strikes last year, Ojeda concluded that the campaign ultimately wasn’t winnable and told his supporters that he could no longer ask people to contribute money to a cause he thought was lost.

Ojeda would have been an interesting test case for the debate cutoff, but no longer. We now have 8 candidates, with 21 still to hear from. Continue Reading...

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Harris and Buttigieg join 2020 race

By Matt | Published January 24, 2019

Sen. Kamala Harris and Mayor Pete Buttigieg both announced they were running for the Democratic presidential nomination. That gives us 9 candidates already, with 21 still to hear from.

Buttiegieg will be interesting to watch, to see if makes the debate cutoff. If the bar is set low, there could be 20-25 candidates to fit into the two nights.

Definitely running: Continue Reading...

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Gabbard in, Cuban out, for Dem nomination

By Matt | Published January 11, 2019

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has announced she is running for President, making her the 6th announced Democratic candidate in the field. On the other hand, Mark Cuban has previously said that if he runs for President, it won’t be as a Democrat. This leaves 30 potential candidates for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

Definitely running:

  1. Rep. John Delaney
  2. State Sen. Richard Ojeda
  3. Sec. Julian Castro
  4. Gov. Jay Inslee
  5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Rep Tulsi Gabbard

Potential candidates who have shown some interest: Continue Reading...

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Superdelegates and Pendulums

By DocJess | Published August 29, 2018

Reprinted with Permission

50 years ago, Democratic candidates were chosen by “The Party”.

50 years ago this week, at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, that began to change. There had been some primaries and caucuses in 1968,  of which Vice President Hubert Humphrey won a tiny amount, but “The Party” wanted Humphrey to be the party’s presidential nominee. They got that, and a whole lot of protests, and a disaster in November. Nixon won the Electoral College 301 – 191, with the remainder going to George Wallace.

Surprisingly, “The Party” formed a committee to see about changes, and some of those changes have lasted until now. To this day, delegates to the DNC are elected by voters in primaries and caucuses, and they need to reflect the diversity of the party. Delegates are required to represent, on at least the first DNC ballot, the will of the voters who elected them.

This lasted through George McGovern in 1972 and Jimmy Carter in 1976. But the internecine warfare between Carter and Ted Kennedy proved a bridge too far in 1980. Superdelegates were created by “The Party” in 1982. These Superdelegates were elected officials, DNC members, and other “important party members” and all had the right to vote in the first ballot at the DNC.

That lasted until last weekend, when the Democratic National Committee (DNC) voted to change the role of Superdelgates. (And yes “DNC” is the abbreviation for both the Democratic National Convention and the Democratic National Committee.) Going forward, Superdelegates will not be allowed to vote on the first ballot. Going into a second ballot would be considered a “brokered convention” — the last time that officially happened in the Democratic Party was in 1952. The most number of ballots at a brokered convention was in 1924, where 102 ballots were needed. For a full discussion of the rules changes, see TMess’ article. Unlike this article, his has specific information and no snark.  Onward and downward….

So what does this mean to us as Democrats?

It means that we have come full circle in 46 years, and that in 2020, things will look very different. Back in 2008, DCW published Superdelegate standings daily, because the final tally between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could have come down to those votes. In 2016, Clinton had a lot of “The Party” support from the Superdelegates, and thus went into primary/caucus season with a whole bunch of dedicated DNC votes that had Bernie Sanders fighting to play catch-up from Iowa onward. While the outcome wouldn’t have changed (the primary calendar was somewhat rigged in favour of Clinton) it still came across as unfair to many Berniecrats. There is a case to be made that had the Berniecrats who stayed home or voted third party in November instead voted for Clinton, Washington, DC would look very different today. But I digress.

What is the purpose of any political party? 

To get their candidates elected. Period. End of sentence. End of paragraph.

The Democratic Party is comprised of many factions:

  • The Old Guard (aka “The Party”). These people hold positions of power in the Party, and have for many years. They range from Committee People at the hyperlocal level, through the State Committees, up to the DNC. This also includes a certain percentage of elected officials, as well as the majority of the money people.
  • The Left Flank (aka “Activists”). This is the part of the party that currently most wants to see changes. They call themselves “Progressives”, which is both a misnomer and improper over time. In the current environment, they support the most Liberal of candidates and issues. They want a seat at the table.
  • The Base. These are the people who vote. They vote in all or some general elections (although often not primaries). Oftentimes, they are not “involved”. They may give a little money, but they don’t attend Party meetings, and generally don’t work for candidates.
  • The Rest of the Tent. These are people who don’t fit neatly into any of the other three categories. Many of them could be called “failed Democrats”. They generally vote a straight Democratic ticket, although will consider Third Party candidates. Often, they worked for the party many years ago, and got fed up and left. They give money to candidates, but never to the party. Also included in this group are single-issue voters. Some of them are recalcitrant voters except in presidential years, and others are incredibly active although not necessarily involved with non-Establishment candidates.

It’s a grand experiment to see who can do better in getting candidates elected: “The Party” or the others. We will see a preview of this in 2018 at the local, state and Congressional levels. There have been many Democratic primaries this year where an Establishment-backed candidate ran against an Activist candidate. The results have been mixed, but we will have a clear idea in November of which group did a better job running against the GOP in the General. Some of those GOP candidates are incumbent “moderates” (yeah, I know, but comparatively) and some are aligned with the Trumpite fascist regime.

This will have an impact on who ends up winning the presidential nomination in 2020. Democratic voters of all stripes will have choices between the Left Flank, the Establishment, and “The Famous”. Who wins which races in 2018 will certainly affect who people select. If the Establishment candidates do much better than the Activist candidates, voters may be gun-shy in 2020, and if the Activist candidates prevail, they will capture more votes. Time will tell. One thing to remember, it is the engaged who vote in primaries, not the overall base.

There is an ancillary point here. That being the party platform. That document, created by committee every 4 years, defines what each party stands for – what the party wishes to accomplish if their candidates are elected. And who writes the platform? With the exception of 2008, “The Party”. So there is a potentially interesting dichotomy of what the active party members want in terms of a presidential candidate, and what “The Party” wants that candidate, and other elected officials, to accomplish during the ensuing four years. This is going to be a bigger deal in 2020 than you probably think.

In 2008, the Obama campaign set up hyperlocal platform meetings in virtually every city and town in America. There was a format, and a list of issue positions came from those meetings. That data was sent up to the county level where it was compiled and considered, and the outcome of those meetings went to the state level. Those state documents (including DC, Puerto Rico and the Territories) went to the Platform Committee at the DNC. Only time in history.

When 2020 rolls around, people will run to be delegates. In some states, voters don’t actually choose candidates as much as they select delegates. In most states, delegates are pledged to a specific candidate. It is those delegates who, on the floor of the convention, vote to either accept or amend the proposed platform.  And so, what the party stands for may differ from what the eventual presidential nominee stands for.

An example: In 2020, one of the issues that will be considered for the platform will be Single Payer (in one or various forms). If pro-Single Payer delegates are the majority at the convention, but the eventual candidate is establishment enough to fear running on that issue, there can be a floor fight. Conversely, if the eventual candidate ran on Single Payer as a primary issue, but the preponderance of delegates are establishment, again, floor fight. Remember that the vote on the platform will occur early in the convention, and the candidate will not be finalized until later. By the way, I don’t say this often enough: READ THE PLATFORM.   You should know what your party stands for.

An old Chinese curse is “May you live in interesting times.” And we certainly are doing that now. As our party fights to wrest control of Congress and state legislatures and governors’ mansions, it is a fight between those supporting a fascist regime, and anything else. While there are some third party candidates, we can only hope to too many idiots don’t choose platform over the primary objective of dislodging the criminal, racist…..you know the rest…..

After the midterms, we will, as a party, resume our fight for the soul of the party. As an individual, think about what you want to do….perhaps you’d like to run next year for a local office, because whichever area of our tent wins out, we still need to build from the ground out. School boards control local taxes. Supervisors, Commissioners and Boards enact laws  and regulations that affect your daily life and how your money is spent on things like roads and other infrastructure. Perhaps you’re interested in becoming a delegate in 2020 – it’s not too early to learn the process and what you’ll need to do to win. And do that thinking in your spare time — we need a Blue Wave this November!

 

 

 

  Continue Reading...

Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, Democratic Party, DNC, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Primary Elections, Superdelegates | 1 Comment

California Chaos

By tmess2 | Published May 29, 2018

With no primaries this week, the focus turns to June 5.  While there are several other significant states with primaries on June 5, the big one is California.  While California is a blue state, it is large enough that there is still a significant Republican contingent (14 Representatives) in the California delegation.  Measured either by total seats, by current Republican delegations, or by Partisan Vote Index score (6 in seats that are R+3 or more Democratic), California will play a significant role in which party has a majority in the House in 2019.  The House seats in California range from D+40 (Barbara Lee) to R+14 (Kevin McCarthy).

Aside from the size of California, the complicating factor for next week’s primary are the rules governing the primary.  California uses a “top two” primary.  Like a jungle primary (which is not really a primary, but a general election with a run-off rule), all the candidates from all of the parties run in one election.  (Thus a voter could pick a Democrat for Governor, a Republican for Lieutenant Governor, Green for U.S. Senate, and Peace and Justice for U.S. House.)  Unlike a jungle primary, in which a candidate can win the seat by getting over 50% in the “primary,” a top two primary is a true primary and the candidates who finish first and second will be on the November ballot.

The nature of the top two primary creates an element of strategy for the parties.  In districts in which you have the majority, having two strong candidates is a good thing.  It makes it possible that the general election will feature two candidates from your party.  In a district in which your lead is solid enough, you can even have three strong candidates without risking the seat.  On the other hand, if you are the trailing party in the district, you want fewer candidates from your party.  You can get away with having two candidates if the other party has more than two strong candidates and the district is close enough.  The bottom line, however, is that having three strong candidates in a close district can result in you being shut out of the general election.

To be blunt, Republicans tend to do a better job of candidate control than the Democrats.  This can be seen in some of the current Republican seats.  Take for example, California’s Tenth District.  By the numbers, this seat is a pure Toss-up seat (an even PVI).  The Democrats have six candidates to the two Republican candidates.  That creates a real possibility (especially with strategic voting by the Republicans) of no Democrat making the general election ballot in a district that the Democrats could win in November.  The need to make sure that some Democrat makes the November ballot puts the national party in a bit of a bind.  They can designate one of the candidates as the “Red to Blue” (the party’s list of key challengers in Republican-held districts) candidate.  But that runs the risk of charges that the national party is interfering in the race.  Or they can sit back and hope for the best.  Turning to the key races . . . .

In the U.S. Senate primary, there are ten Democrats, eleven Republicans, and eleven independents/third party candidates on the ballot.  Current polling has Senator Feinstein with a comfortable lead over the pack (31% in the most recent poll, almost enough to assure her of making the general election regardless of how the undecided voters break).   In the most recent poll, none of the other candidates has over 10% and about 50% of the voters are undecided.

For Governor, there are twelve Democrats, five Republicans, and ten other candidates on the ballot.  This race is a little closer, with Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom leading the field (21% in the most recent poll).  However, in the most recent poll, there are two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican) in the low double digits, and around 45% of the voters are undecided.  Given the number of candidates, twenty-one percent might be enough to make the top two, but Newsom probably needs to pick up at least some of the undecided Democrats to make the general.  (By contrast, Senator Feinstein should make the general even if all of the undecided Democrats end up supporting the leading Democratic challenger.)

For the House, it should go without saying, but turnout is the key.  Even though California makes it relatively easy to vote, many voters skip the primary trusting that they will have at least one good candidate on the November ballot.  Strong Democratic turnout will make it easier for Democrats to get at least one candidate on the November ballot in all of the districts and could lead to Republicans being shut out of some districts.  With 53 seats, we will not be able to note all of them, but here are some of the ones to pay close attention to:

California 1:      A R+11 seat, so one that will be a challenge to win in November.  Incumbent Republican Doug La Malfa will almost certainly make the November ballot.  There are six Democrats running, so there is a slim chance that the other Republican on the ballot could finish second.  However, that other Republican has no funding.  The two top Democrats in terms of fundraising are Jessica Holcombe and Audrey Denney.

California 4:  A R+10, so another one that will be something of a stretch in November.  Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock should make the November ballot.  As in California 1, there are six Democrats versus two Republicans creating the potential of an all-Republican general election.  Again, the other Republican has not raised much money and two Democrats have stood out — Regina Bateson and Jessica Morse — in terms of fundraising.  In both districts, the leading challengers have raised enough to stand out from the other contenders, but whichever makes the general will need to raise a lot more.

California 8 — A R +9 district, so somewhat on the edge of a winnable district in a Democratic wave.  Democrats have had a little better candidate control here (3 Democrats to 2 Republicans).  Incumbent Republican Paul Cook should make the general.  The battle for second may be a close one between Republican Timothy Donnelly (who unlike some other Republicans challenging Republican incumbents have raised some funds) and Democrat Marjorie Doyle.

California 10 — As noted above, a nominally “Even” district.  While there is a second Republican on the ballot along with incumbent Jeff Denham, that other Republican has raised very little, if anything.  There has been good fundraising for the Democrats, and the Democrat with the most money raised — Josh Harder — is only a little behind Representative Denham.  However, three other Democrats have also raised at least $200,000.  Assuming that the Republicans do not organize strategic voting to assure that both Republicans make the top two, this race will be a key one in November.

California 21 & California 22 & California 23 & California 24 — In all of these districts, the Republican incumbent managed to avoid drawing any Republican opposition.  As such, the incumbent should make the November ballot, and one of the Democrats should also make the general election ballot.  (Outside of California 21, there are third party candidates on the primary ballot who could steal the general election ballot slot.)  California 21 is a D +5 district, currently held by Republican David Valadao.  As there are only two candidates on the primary ballot, both will make the general election.  California 22 is a R+8 district, currently held by Trump Administration stooge Devin Nunes.  One of the three Democrats (most likely Fresno County DA Andrew Janz) should make the general election ballot.  California 23 is the most Republican district in the state (R +14) currently held by Speaker-wannabe Kevin McCarthy.  One of the four Democrats should make it to November, but none of them have raised any significant money.  California 25 is an Even district, currently held by Steve Knight.  Two Democrats (Bryan Caforio and Katherine Hill) have raised more than $1,000,000.

California 39 — An Even district, but one in which the two parties have done a poor job of candidate control.  With Republican incumbent Ed Royce deciding not to run, seven Republicans and six Democrats have gotten into the race.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee decided to put their thumb on the scale to assure that, at least, one Democrat makes the general election by naming Gil Cisneros as a “Red to Blue” candidate.  Besides Cisneros, Democrats Andy Thorburn and Mai Tran have raised over $1,000,000.  Two Republicans — Young Kim and Shawn Nelson — have raised over $500,000.  Without polling, it is difficult to be sure, but I am seeing a result in which several candidates are clustered in the upper teens/low twenties.  With a lucky break, two Democrats will be on the November ballot.  If things break wrong, two Republicans will be on the November ballot and a likely pick-up will have been blown.

California 45 — A R+3 district that Secretary Clinton carried in 2016.  Republican incumbent Mimi Walters has no Republican opposition; so one of the four Democrats should make the general.  All four have raised at least $500,000, and three of the four have raised at least $1,000,000.  The primary election should be very close, and this will be a pick-up opportunity in November.

California 48 — A R+4 district where incumbent Russophile Dana Rohrabacher has been a frequent Democratic target.  There are six Republicans and eight Democrats on the ballot.  Three of the Democrats and one of the Republicans “withdrew” after the deadline (meaning that they stay on the ballot).  Two of the Democrats specifically endorsed Harely Rouda, but two other Democrats (Hans Keirstead and Omar Siddiqui) have also raised significant funds.  The Republican who withdrew endorsed another of the Republican challengers (Scott Baugh who has also raised significant funds).  In short, it is looking like a five-way race.  Representative Rohrabacher will probably make the general, but it is unclear who will be the other candidate.  In short, like California 39, there is a real chance that the number of Democrats running may result in two Republicans making the November ballot and a lost pick-up opportunity.

California 49 — A R+1 district that has been a frequent Democratic target.  Incumbent Darrell Issa saw the writing on the wall and decided to retire.  Four Democrats, eight Republicans, and four other candidates jumped into the open race.  All four Democrats have raised significant funds (over $900,000).  Three Republicans have raised over $300,000 but less than $500,000.  Given the number of candidates, if the Republicans manage to unify behind two of the candidates, the Democrats could get shut out of the November ballot.  Given the lack of significant funding for any of the Republicans, there is also a chance that the Republican vote could be widely dispersed (with none of them getting over 10%) resulting in the Democrats picking up this seat next week.

California 50 — A R+11 district represented by Duncan Hunter.  There are three Democrats and three Republicans on the ballot, but only two of the Democrats and one of the Republican challengers have raised significant money.  Again, one of those districts where there is a chance that Democrats could be shut out of the general election.  However, if one of the two main Democrats — Josh Buttnar and Ammar Campa-Najjar — can pull away from the other, that candidate should finish in the top two.

In short, if things go the Democrats way on June 5, the Democrats could pick up a seat or two even before the November general.  If the votes split the wrong way due to too many Democrats running, two or three seats that should be Democratic will stay Republican.

 

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Handicapping this Week’s Primaries

By DocJess | Published May 6, 2018

Tmess gave a great overview of the upcoming primary season.  This week, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia are up. In addition to Tmess’s information, here’s a little local color.

We’ll start in West Virginia because it’s just plain the most fun. There is a contested Republican Senatorial primary. The candidates are Don Blankenship, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Now, the fun part here is that while there hasn’t been any polling to speak of, the “common wisdom” says that Blankenship has a real chance. And here is the part that will make you chuckle. Not only does Don not live in West Virginia, he lives in Vegas, as does his parole officer, AND he needs permission from his parole officer to travel out of state. I’m personally pulling for him to win — Mitch McConnell’s PAC (Mountain Families) recently spent $1.3 million on anti-Blankenship TV ads, as well as digital ads. This worked SO WELL for Mitch in Alabama a few months back. And by the way, Don refers to Mitch’s father-in-law as a “Chinaperson”. Very feminist of him. Bottom line, if Don can pull it off, Joe Manchin will breathe a sigh of relief. Joe is a mixed bag: we’d like to keep the seat to keep it blue, even though Joe’s is not a solid vote, but if it gives us the majority, there’s a lot of good in terms of process, not to mention Dick Schumer as Senate Majority Leader in lieu of Mitch. As an aside, one of Joe’s daughters is Heather Bresch — you remember her.  She’s the person for whom there is a special ring in hell because of upping the cost of EpiPens by 400%.  There are other races, as in, ALL the Congressional seats, but there is little chance any will change parties. But political junkies can look forward to 2020 when Governor Jim Justice is running for re-election — he was elected in 2016 as a Democrat and then came out in love with Donald Trump and changed parties.

In Ohio, there are two marquee races: Senate and Governor. Sherrod Brown (D) is looking to keep his Senate seat, and his primary challenger will be decided on Tuesday.  Smart money says it will be current House member Jim Renacci.  The seat leans Democratic. At the Congressional level, there is one open seat, the 12th, which will also generate a Special Election in August with the same cast of characters. The seat was held by Pat Tiberi (R), a member of Ways and Means who announced last year that he would leave Congress in January of 2018 (which he did) – conventional wisdom says he did so to enter the private sector AND avoid having to be involved with writing the Trumpkin tax bill. “They” say the seat leans Republican (it’s part of the Columbus suburbs) but in a wave year…..

And then there’s the gubernatorial race. John Kasich (R) is term limited so the seat is open, and John’s already making moves for another presidential race in 2020.  Mike DeWine(R), the current AG, has the best shot in the primary, and even in a toss-up, he’s looking strong. The main Democratic contenders are Dennis Kucinich and Richard Cordrary. The former is well known as a former Congressman, and failed presidential candidate. He’s a firebrand liberal. Recently, there have been some questions about his relationships, including a friendship with Bashar Assad. (Yes, THAT Assad). Still he’s got the backing not of Bernie Sanders himself, but Sander’s group. On the other side, Rich Cordray has the support of Elizabeth Warren, and most mainstream Democratic movers and shakers, although he does have an A+ rating from the NRA. One Ohio pundit referred to the race as high-test coffee vs. decaf. Cordray has a better shot against DeWine in the General.

The other State offices (Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor) are all open. They are currently all in Republican hands. We’ll handicap those races after the primary, based on the victors.

On to Indiana. The statewide candidates up for election this year (Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor) are not determined by primary, but by party convention, so there are no candidates as of this writing. Of note in Indiana, where the marquee race is the Senate race, is that voters declare the party to which they belong when they select a primary ballot, although it’s “by voting history” meaning the ballot chosen at the primary. There is no space on the voter registration form for a party selection. A voter’s party can be challenged at the polls, but the data is not at the polls.  It begs the question of how one switches parties, and I have no idea, please use the comments if you do.

The reason to bring up the party registration is that current Senator Joe Donnelly (D) is running for re-election in what is considered one of the three most vulnerable Democratic seats in the Senate. He is running unopposed. The question is whether any Democrats will crossover to vote for the “weakest” Republican candidate, which will be difficult in this environment. There was only one poll accomplished, and it was done by Gravis, one of the worst in the industry. Their polling looked at Mike Braun, Todd Rokita and Luke Messer, and found them at 26, 16 and 13, respectively, meaning about half the electorate hasn’t make up their minds, and that poll was taken a few weeks ago. The three candidates all have about the same amount of money, and they’re all pretty similar in terms of views and values. If, however, we see more people voting in the Democratic primary than usual, that will tell us something.

Finally, North Carolina. The races are exclusively Congressional, and there’s nothing to say in a state as unfairly gerrymandered as North Caroline.

Next week: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon and my state, Pennsylvania (and that last one is fascinating!)

 

 

 

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Primary Season — Late Spring

By tmess2 | Published April 29, 2018

Because each state gets to set its own primary date, primary season is a gradual thing.  Putting aside a handful of exceptions (and run-offs), most primaries fall into two clusters.  The first cluster occurs in May and June (starting on May 8 and ending on June 26).  The second cluster occurs in August and September (starting on August 2 and ending on September 13).  During both clusters, most primaries occur on Tuesday, and there is at least one state on each Tuesday (other than May 29).

On May 8, there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.  Key primaries are the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and West Virginia.  Both are states won by Trump in which Democratic Senators are running for re-election.  In Indiana, you have three candidates running for the Republican nomination.  It’s not clear that it really matters who wins or that there is much difference between the candidates.  West Virginia is a different matter.  The Republicans are scared to death that Don Blankenship could get the nomination.  Blankenship is the former CEO of one of the state’s larger coal miner and did time in prison related to miners who died due to unsafe mining practices.  The national GOP has (through super-pacs) been running adds against Blankenship.  In Ohio, the key races are for Governor with both parties having primaries in the race to replace term-limited John Kasich and Ohio’s 12th District in which there is both a regular primary and a special election primary (most of the candidates are the same in both, so both parties should have the same winner for both primaries, but there is always the chance in a close race that there could be a split result).

On May 15, there are primaries in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.  The big story is likely to be the new congressional districts in Pennsylvania.   Amazingly, there are no incumbent against incumbent primaries although there could be an incumbent against incumbent general election.  Given the newness of the lines, it will be interesting to see how the local interests will influence the candidates chosen.

On May 22, there are primaries in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky, and a run-off in Texas.   In Texas, there are key run-offs on the Democratic side for Governor and the Seventh District.  In both contests, the Republicans will be favored but Democrats have a shot.   The question for local Democrats will be whether to go with the “purer” candidate ideologically or with the candidate who could win over college-educated Republicans who do not like being part of the Party of Trump.

June 5 is the big day with primaries in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.  California is the tough one to call given its “first two system.”  Particularly in close districts, it matters how many strong candidates each party has.   In a district (or state-wide for the Democrats) that your party should win, you want a second strong candidate so that you can lock the other party out of the general.  If you are slightly behind in the district, you want one strong candidate to assure yourself of a place in the general (and hope that the other party nominate a divisive candidate that gives you a chance to pick up independents and moderates).  What you don’t want is three strong candidates which create the possibility (as has happened in the past) that your party could get the most primary votes but still not finish in the top two due to your vote being split too much.  (Districts where Democrats could find themselves locked out of the general include the 1st, 4th, 8th, 10th, 39th, 48th, 49th, 50th.  The last three are districts that would be targets in November if a Democrat makes it to the final two.)  Particularly with Governor being an open seat, the other big question will be whether the Democrats can get both of the general election slots (as they did for Senate in 2016) for Governor and Senate.  (The primaries in Mississippi do not include the special election for Senate which will be a “non-partisan” race in November with a run-off if nobody wins a majority.)

June 12 has primaries in Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, and Virginia.  In Maine, you have an open race for Governor.  In Nevada, you have an open race for Governor and two congressional seats (3rd and 4th).   In Virginia, Republicans have a three-way Senate race.  You also have an open seat in Virginia 6th and a very important Democratic primary in District 10 which will be a target race in November.

June 19 is the calm week with the only certain primary being for D.C. but the chance at a run-off in Arkansas.

The spring primaries end on June 26 with contests in Colorado, Maryland, New York (federal offices only), Oklahoma, and Utah.   There could be a run-off in Mississippi, North Carolina (depending on whether any of the federal offices need a run-off), and/or South Carolina.  In Colorado, Governor is an open seat.  Additionally, the 2nd District will be an open seat as the Democratic incumbent is running for governor and the 5th District might be an open seat as the incumbent Republican failed to get enough signatures on his petition.  (That issue is still being fought in court.)  In New York, the interesting race might be the Republican Primary for the 11th district where disgraced former Congressman Michael Grimm is challenging incumbent Congressman Daniel Donovan.  In Utah, the big race is the open seat for the U.S. Senate where Mitt Romney is hoping/expecting to do better with primary voters than he did at the Republican state convention with activists.

While technically not a primary, the special election (as in Mississippi, Texas special elections are nominally non-partisan with a run-off in nobody wins) for Texas’s 27th District will take place on June 30.  All four of the candidates who will compete in the run-offs on May 22 are on the ballot for the special election.  (Whether anybody will drop out after May 22 is to be seen, but you could have the unusual result that a candidate loses on May 22 but makes it to the run-off in the special election due to cross-over votes.)

There could also be run-offs in some states in July depending upon the results in the primaries noted above.

 

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The Path Forward

By tmess2 | Published July 29, 2017

Looking at the Republican debacle over Health Care, I was constantly reminded of two things.

First, I keep on thinking of a classic Saturday Night Live skit from their third season portraying Richard Nixon as a vampire-like figure who keeps coming back.  Like Nixon in that skit, just when we think that the Republican efforts at gutting health care are done, they find a way to resurrect the bill.  Since the Senate never actually voted on the final bill (which was put back on the calendar after the substitute amendment failed), it could be brought back to the floor at any time.

Second, I am reminded of Representative Pelosi’s comments while the Affordable Care Act was pending that we would not know what was in the bill until it finally passed.  While Republicans made a lot of hay out of this comment, she was expressing the reality of the legislative process.  Until the vote on the final version of the bill, it is possible that legislators will add new provisions and delete others.  Normally, however, under ordinary process, there is a core of the bill that stays relatively the same.  With this bill, the Republicans have treated the bill as a placeholder.  The message in the House and the Senate has been just pass this bill whatever its flaws and we can decide on the real terms of the bill later.  The concept that the conference committee would write an entire bill from scratch as opposed to merely reconciling the disagreements between the two houses is mindboggling.

Of course, health care was not the only example of the dysfunction of the Republican Party and the never-ending drama that is the Trump Administration.  We have tweets announcing a reprehensible policy directive requiring the military to discharge well-qualified soldiers merely because of their gender identify with no apparent work having been done on how to implement that policy.   We have a communications director whose only skill is to coarsen the national conversation triumphing over an experienced political operative who has a clue of how to get things done in D.C.

Of course, the utter failure of the Republican Party as a governing party merely provides an opening for Democratic ideas.  One of the hard things about any democracy is that activists can get easily frustrated during the period between elections.  Our actions, while important to keep the debate going, do not bear immediate positive results.  At this point in time, the summer of the first year, the campaigns for the mid-term election are just starting to come together (and some potential winning candidates are still considering whether they will run).

During the first year of an Administration, the main campaigns are special elections and New Jersey and Virginia.  Special elections can be frustrating.  Barring deaths, special elections tend to be to replace members who have moved on to higher-ranking positions and tend to be in somewhat safe districts.  (For those interested in helping in these elections, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is a good source for the state legislative races. )  Obviously for the races in New Jersey and Virginia, the state parties are a good source of information.

Looking at 2018, the Green Papers is a good source of information for who has already set up a campaign committee for 2018.  However, as noted above, many potential candidates have yet to make a final decision about whether they will run in 2018.  Until these races firm up, it is a little early to make projections about 2018.  Obviously, the Democratic incumbent senators running in states that Trump won could use support now.   The reality of politics is that people tend to run when they think they can win.  If Democratic incumbents look difficult to beat, some top Republican contenders may choose to run for re-election to their current seats rather than challenging for a Senate seat.  The ugly reality is that Democrats did very well in 2012, meaning that we will have to defend a large number of seats and that we have very few good Senate targets.  We have at least one strong candidate in Nevada and Texas.  Democrats are still looking for candidates in Arizona.  (In Texas, we might be better off if the rumors of Ted Cruz replacing Jeff Sessions are true.  The rules for the special election would potentially allow for a Democrat vs. Democrat run-off.)

And, of course, the 2020 process has already started.  Right now the big activity is the Unity Reform Commission which will make recommendations to the Rules and By-laws committee by January 2018.  Obviously, they have a difficult task ahead but they have a survey on the DNC website for those members of the public who want input.  There are a lot of issues for them to decide including how open primaries and caucuses should be and the role of the superdelegates.  There are a lot of pros and cons on both issues.  I would note that Donald Trump is the President of the United States because of the differences between the Republican rules and the Democratic rules.  Under the Democratic rules, Donald Trump would have faced a contested convention and the superdelegates would have been in a position to play a significant role in stopping him from getting the nomination.  Under the Republican rules, many of their superdelegates were legally required to vote for Trump.  My own personal preference is to keep the superdelegates as unpledged delegates but to give them a fraction of a vote to reduce their influence.  (In the Republican Party, superdelegates represent about 5% of the floor vote.  In the Democratic Party, superdelegates represent about 15% of the floor vote.)

Right now, we know what we have to fight for.  We know that the 2018 elections will be key (both for policy reasons and for redistricting in 2021).  But it is the early days of the 2018 campaign.  The important thing is to keep the eyes on the prize and do the little things to help build up local parties so that the grassroots infrastructure is in place twelve months from now when the 2018 campaigns begin to ramp up.  Voter registration and petition drives over local issues are not always glamorous, but they are where those resources are developed.

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Here’s What We Do: Step 1

By DocJess | Published November 10, 2016

The basic plan will be to align with national and local organizations to get people elected to local row offices, county and state positions so that we build our bench and end up in the best position possible for redistricting after the 2020 elections. There will be a lot more on that over the next weeks and months.

For now, step one is that we take back our name. Over the past decade, we have allowed the Republicans to change us from “The Democratic Party” to “The Democrat Party.” We need to take the title “Democratic” and the term “democratic” back. Start today. Correct others. Think about it: we are both a party and a concept about what this country should be. The concept “of, relating to, or supporting democracy or its principles.”

Some of those principles are codified in the US Constitution. So memorize this:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Stand up for what we ARE. Be a Democratic who embodies democratic and Democratic principles and is committed to the rule of law.

It matters.

As an aside, please follow DCW on Facebook here.

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What We Are

By DocJess | Published October 27, 2016

This video talks about what it means to be a Democrat. Watch it. Listen. REMEMBER that we Democrats are not just an election, and we are not individual candidates, we are all of us. We are our voices, our values, and our history. Are we all perfect 100% of the time? Certainly not: but our record is truly something of which we can be very proud.

So now that you’re proud, take step two and watch my favourite political video of all time.

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