Category Archives: Donald Trump

What the Indictment Might Mean for 2024

To begin with the obvious, an indictment is a document used to formally bring criminal charges against an individual (here the Orange Menace).  Under the law, all criminal defendants are presumed to be innocent of the charged offense, and the prosecution has the burden to present sufficient evidence to convince twelve jurors to unanimously agree that the evidence proves that defendant guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

There is no precise timetable for when a case must go to trial.  The U.S. Supreme Court has held that, as a matter of federal constitutional law, a trial begun within eight months of charges being filed is sufficiently speedy to satisfy the speedy trial clause of the U.S. Constitution.  If, as often happens, it takes more than eight months to bring a case to trial, the courts then use a balancing test to decide how long is too long.  In theory, Trump might be able to delay the trial until after the 2024 election.  If he succeeds in this goal, the problems for him will be mostly how much of a distraction the pending case(s) will be (both in terms of time and money) and how voters react to the charges.  While it’s too early to tell for sure, the initial reaction of voters seems to be that the true believers will see any accusation against their god as persecution and an attempt to block them from electing him.  This groups might be just enough to get him the Republican nomination, but this group is not large enough to get him elected.  On the other hand, a significant group of swing voters seem to be tired of the chaos and criminality associated with Trump, and these charges (unless something else comes out to undermine them) seem likely to make it harder for Trump to win the general election.

The “interesting” questions come when Trump is convicted.  (Most defendants are convicted.  While there is an old saying that a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich, that saying is only half true.  Yes, the prosecution controls what a grand jury hears, but they still need some credible evidence that the defendant committed a crime.  And, after you get the indictment, you still need to win a trial.  While some prosecutors might put the hand slightly on the scale to get an indictment in a case that is a close call, it does little good to bring charges when your evidence is so weak that you have no chance at getting a conviction.)  And this is a question of ballot laws in the fifty states (plus D.C.) and the rules of the Republican Party. Continue Reading...

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Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

There have been signs, including a posting on his Twitter-alternative website from the Crook-in-Chief that an arrest was supposed to be about to occur, that Donald Trump may soon be the prisoner in the dock.  Obviously, until charges are filed, any discussion of potential charges are just speculation.  But here is what seems to be in the wind.  And I did postpone writing this to see what might get filed this past week, but, since there is no guarantee about when these charges will come, I decided to go ahead with this post.

Right now, the case that appears on the eve of being filed is from Manhattan County in New York.  These charges arise out of something which is, unfortunately, somewhat common with closely-held corporations — an inability to keep the corporation separate from the person.  Legally, a corporation is a separate legal person from its owners, officers, and employees.  The corporation is legally responsible for paying its own expenses and liabilities.  The personal expenses and liabilities of the employees are supposed to be paid by the employees out of their personal funds.  If the employer covers those expenses, that is considered to be compensation to the employee (or dividends to the owner) which has to be reported to the IRS and state taxing authorities as income for the employee (or income to the owner).  This situation is what got the Trump Organization charged and convicted for benefits that it provided to some of the executives which were included as business expenses (and employee compensation is a business expense) on the corporate returns but not reported as income to the executives.

In Trump’s case, the issue is sexual misconduct by the CEO of the company.  Now, if the company is being sued for sexual harassment of its female employees under Title VII, that is a legitimate business expense.  If the CEO is sued for sexual misconduct in his personal ife, that is not a legitimate business expense, and he should be paying the settlement and the legal expenses out of his personal account.  Complicating the matter for Trump is that these issues arose while Trump was running for office.  That raises the issue of whether the settlements and non-disclosure agreements were for personal reasons — to avoid his spouse learning about his infidelity — or for political reasons — to avoid the public learning that the candidate is a liar and cheat who can’t even keep his wedding vows much less any other promise.   It is clear that there are some fraudulent business records here as Michael Cohen and the women should not have been paid from Trump Organization accounts but whether the offense is a felony or misdemeanor depends upon whether that improper use of corporate funds where for other criminal purposes — namely avoiding tax liability on the part of Donald Trump (if Trump had paid the bills and then taken a draw from the company that would have been income to Trump and the expense would not have been tax deductible) and the Trump Organization (distribution of income by a company is not tax deductible but legal expenses are) or to avoid reporting a campaign expense (if the settlement was designed to avoid the political consequences, it would be considered to be a campaign expense). Continue Reading...

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Presidential Records

Who thought that nineteen months after he left office in disgrace, that the misdeeds of the Orange Menace would still be front and center.  And, of course, when he is caught red handed, his first line of defense is take advantage of general ignorance about the finer details of the law to blatantly lie knowing that the true believers will accept whatever he says.

The first basic truth is understanding the law on presidential records.  Prior to Watergate, the law was somewhat unclear.  But after Watergate, the law was changed to make clear that presidential records belong to the government, not the person who was serving as president.

The distinction between the office and the person holding it has always been something taht Trump has had issues with.  While he touted his business background as a reason why he would make a good president, it actually is, potentially, a contributing factor in this problem.  The essence of business law is that corporations have a separate legal existence from its owners and its officers.  The officers who run a company are supposed to act to further the best interests of the company rather than in their own self-interest or the interest of any group of shareholders.  But time after time, corporate officers (especially if they are from the family that are controlling shareholders) get in trouble for using corporate funds for personal benefit.  This problem can be even worse in closely held corporations like the Trump Organization with the corporation simply being the alter ego of the primary owner/CEO.  And the Trump Organization is exhibit A in how the family that runs the corporation fails to keep the business separate from their personal affairs.  Given his inability as CEO of the Trump Organization to recognize the difference between the Trump Organization and Donald Trump, it should not be a shock that Donald Trump failed to recognize any difference between the Office of the President and Donald Trump. Continue Reading...

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Impeachment vs. 14th Amendment vs. 25th Amendment

Up until his very last minute in office (and beyond it), Donald Trump is making history in ways that his descendants will not like.  In fifty years, instead of saying that a person’s name is Mud(d), we might be saying that his name is Trump.

Right now, there are three possibilities being discussed in D.C. and on op-ed pages.  Each have some legal questions associated with it.

The first option — which seems dead in the water as the Cabinet and Vice-Coward Mike Pence seem to be reluctant to take responsibility for suspending Trump’s presidency is the Twenty-Fifth Amendment.  Many constitutional amendments are simple establishing one basic rule.  E.g.  authorizing or repealing prohibition, giving women the right to vote).  Others, like about half of the bill of rights, have multiple related but separate concepts (e.g. First Amendment covering freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of assembly).  The Twenty-fifth Amendment is one of those multi-part amendments addressing several aspects of presidential succession. Continue Reading...

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Georgia, Recall Elections, Impeachment, and Removal — a Legal Primer

In the aftermath of a weak of sedition and riots, I am seeing a lot of questions about issues related to the seating (or exclusion) of Senators and Representatives.  I am also seeing questions about what can be done to bring a quicker end to the mistake that was the Trump presidency.

Let’s start with the Georgia elections.  As we learned in November, it takes time to finalize the election results.  In Georgia, there are three key deadlines.  The first is the deadline for receipt of overseas ballots and for the curing of “rejected” absentee ballots and for determining the validity of provisional ballots.  That deadline was the close of business today.     So, at the present time, all  of the counties should know if they have any votes left to count.

The second deadline is next Friday — January 15.  By that date, all of the approximately 160 counties are supposed to have completed their county canvass and certified all votes to the Secretary of State.  This deadline can be extended if the Secretary of State orders a pre-certification audit (as happened in the presidential race).  (It is unclear how the audit will apply to the Senate races.  The state law required one for the November election but is ambiguous as to the run-off election.  The Secretary of State also opted for a complete hand recount of all votes in the presidential race — which technically is not an audit — but the statute only requires an audit of random counties and precincts.  If a proper – in other words,  limited — audit is conducted, the counties that have to do the audit may not need an extension.) Continue Reading...

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The Count

To quote the Grateful Dead, “what a long, strange trip it’s been.”  Our hopes for a decisive enough result that the winner would be clear on November 3 failed to come to fruition.  And since then, Trump and his allies have thrown everything but the kitchen sink into denying reality.  Even as late as this week, Trump’s allies have been filing meritless cases to try to have judges cancel the votes in various states.  And almost all of the case have been rejected by the courts.  To date, the Supreme Court has not accepted any cases, and have left most cases proceed on the normal schedule (which means no decisions on taking any of them prior to January 8 when the Supreme Court next meets).

That leaves us down to one last abuse of the legal process — the joint Congressional session to count the electoral votes sent by the states.  The current process dates back to the aftermath of the election of 1876.  In that election, you had a handful of states with conflicting results certified by different entities.  As such, you had multiple states sending votes from individuals that had been recognized by some part of state government as the official electors.  Ultimately, a commission was established to resolve those disputes.  While it took around a decade to get legislation through Congress, the Electoral Count Act of 1887 set forth the key provisions that are still in place today.   The current language in Title 3 sets forth a multi-stage process.

First, prior to election day, each state legislature shall set forth the rules governing the selection of electors.  These rules besides designating who makes the selection also dictate the procedures to be followed during that selection, the role to be played by various state agencies (legislatures, state election authorities, and local election authorities) in running the selection process, and who has the power to resolve disputes that might arise during the selection process (courts, state election authorities, local election authorities, and legislatures).  While the Constitution does not mandate the use of the popular vote to select electors (and, in the early days, some states had the legislature pick the electors), every state has now opted for using some variation of the popular vote to pick electors.  And every state has adopted procedures in which the initial resolution of election disputes are made by local election authorities and state election authorities with the potential for judicial review of those decisions. Continue Reading...

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Four Weeks and Counting

After 47 months, we are almost at the end of our long national nightmare.  And for his closing acts, Donald Trump is going out the same way that he came in.

Anybody who followed  Trump the businessman should not have been surprised at Trump the president.  For all of his propaganda about being a great deal maker, the reality was something else.  There were three key lessons from Trump the businessman which have been true for this entire administration.

First, Trump was only ever concerned about what was it in it for him.  Trump was never the type of businessman who big on win-win deals in which both sides gained from the deal.  Instead, he wanted to get the most possible out of a deal even if it meant screwing over the other side. Continue Reading...

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Safe Harbor Day — UPDATED

Whether it is just the weirdness of 2020 or the narcissism of the Orange Menace, this post-election period has been about key dates and events.  Over the past four weeks or so, one by one, despite unsuccessful attempts to have courts intervene to block them, states have certified the results of the presidential election, and the remaining states are set to do so on Monday or Tuesday.   Once the appropriate authority within the state has certified the results of the presidential election, the governor is to complete and mail to the National Archives a “certificate of ascertainment.”  As of today’s date, the National Archives has received just under half of these certificates.

Now normally, this process is routine.  It happens, and only political geeks pay attention.  But because Trump and his “lawyers” refuse to face reality, we are now facing an event that has only really mattered once before in U.S. history — the safe harbor date.   If a state has concluded any dispute related to electors by six days before the electors meet, the determination by the state is “conclusive.”  In 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court used this language to find that Florida wanted all election contests to end by the safe harbor date.  The 2000 election is the only time that we have faced the safe harbor date having any meaning.

But we are back in that boat again.  And this year, the safe harbor date is Tuesday, December 8.    Despite Trump’s attempt to cast this election as a repeat of 2000 with the Supreme Court intervening to decide the election if necessary, what is happening in the courts does not support that alternate reality. Continue Reading...

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Where Things Stand

In part because of one sore loser, this year’s election seems to be the one that will not end.  And that means that almost any post based on current information is no longer accurate several days later.  As noted in previous posts, there are three big questions:  1) when are absentee ballots due; 2) when will the vote be certified; and 3) what states might be subject to recounts.  There is also the never-ending litigation being filed by the Trump campaign.

At the present time, California is probably the biggest state in which we are still waiting for late absentee ballots with a deadline of Friday.  At the time that I am writing this post, the margin in the Twenty-Fifth District is less than 100 votes; so late arriving ballots could be a key.  In addition, a recount is a real possibility.

The other big state in which there remains a significant number of ballots to be counted is New York.  At the present time, Democrats have apparently lost the Eleventh District (Staten Island).  There are three Democratic districts that have not been called, but Democrats now lead in two of the three.  There are also two Republican districts that have not been called, but the Republicans have significant leads in both.  Whether the remaining votes will actually swing the districts is unclear. Continue Reading...

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Labor Day 2020 — The Future of Social Security

One of the big accomplishments of the labor movement in the 1900s — both in the U.S. and in other industrialized countries — was the concept of pensions (both public and private).  The basic concept behind pensions was to guarantee workers that, when they got too old to work anymore, they would have a guaranteed payment for the rest of their life.

Of course, with the decline of the labor movement, there has been a movement away from “defined benefit” plans to “defined contribution” plans.  From the workers perspective, a defined benefit plan offered two significant advantages:  1) if something went wrong, the company had to make up any shortfall caused by bad investments; and 2) the company would hire a competent money manager to properly invest the funds dedicated to the pension plan.  From the perspective of upper management, a defined contribution plan had two major advantages:  1) the company’s contribution was set in stone regardless of whether that investment ended up being sufficient; 2) the most economically savvy (i.e. the financial types that tend to ended up in the top tiers of companies) could get more from the pensions by making slick investment decisions while the average worker was left with measly investment gains (and maybe even losses if the default investment ended up going down the tubes).

At the public level, the big pension plan in the U.S. has been Social Security.  Social Security has always been a variation on a defined contribution plan.  But it has also always been a “pay as you go” type plan.  These two features has always combined to create a “crisis on the horizon” situation for Social Security. Continue Reading...

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