-
Recent Posts
Search
Welcome to DCW
Upcoming Events
7/15/24 - GOP Convention
TBD - Democratic Convention
11/5/24 - Election DayTools
Archives
Tag Cloud
2008 Democratic National Convention 2012 Democratic National Convention 2012 Republican National Convention 2016 Democratic National Convention 2016 Republican National Convention 2020 Census 2020 Delegate Selection Plans 2020 Democratic Convention 2024 Democratic Convention 2024 Republican Convention Abortion Affordable Care Act Alabama Arizona Bernie Sanders California Delegate Selection Donald Trump First Amendment Florida Free Exercise Clause Free Speech Georgia Hillary Clinton Immigration Iowa Joe Biden John Kasich Kansas Maine Marco Rubio Michigan Missouri Nevada North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania redistricting Supreme Court Ted Cruz Texas United Kingdom Virginia Voting Rights Act WisconsinDCW in the News
Blog Roll
Site Info
-
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
- DocJess on GOP convention plans remain in flux
- tmess2 on Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
- DocJess on GOP Jacksonville money woes continue
- DocJess on Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
- tmess2 on GOP now looking at outdoor Jacksonville convention
Archives
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- September 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- November 2014
- September 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- March 2014
- January 2014
- August 2013
- August 2012
- November 2011
- August 2011
- January 2011
- May 2010
- January 2009
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
Categories
- 2019-nCoV
- 2020 Convention
- 2020 General Election
- 2020DNC
- 2024 Convention
- 2028 Convention
- Anti-Semitism
- Bernie Sanders
- Charlotte
- Chicago
- Civil Rights
- Cleveland
- Climate Change
- Coronavirus
- Coronavirus Tips
- COVID-19
- Debates
- Delegate Count
- Delegates
- Democratic Debates
- Democratic Party
- Democrats
- DemsinPhilly
- DemsInPHL
- Disaster
- DNC
- Donald Trump
- Economy
- Elections
- Electoral College
- Federal Budget
- Freedom of the Press
- General Election Forecast
- GOP
- Healthcare
- Hillary Clinton
- Holidays
- Hotels
- House of Representatives
- Houston
- Identity Politics
- Impeachment
- Iowa Caucuses
- Jacksonville
- Joe Biden
- Judicial
- LGBT
- Mariner Pipeline
- Merrick Garland
- Meta
- Milwaukee
- Money in Politics
- Music
- National Security
- Netroots Nation
- New Yor
- New York
- NH Primary
- Notes from Your Doctor
- NoWallNoBan
- Pandemic
- Philadelphia
- PHLDNC2016
- Platform
- Politics
- Polls
- Presidential Candidates
- Primary and Caucus Results
- Primary Elections
- Public Health
- Rant
- Republican Debates
- Republicans
- Resist
- RNC
- Russia
- Senate
- Snark
- Student Loan Debt
- Sunday with the Senators
- Superdelegates
- Syria
- The Politics of Hate
- Uncategorized
- Vaccines
- War
- Weekly White House Address
Meta
Category Archives: Elections
French Election — Round 1
Continuing the international politics theme from last week, this Sunday is the first phase of the French presidential election. It’s only the first phase for two reasons. First, France uses a runoff system (the runoff will be in two weeks). Second, France has so many political parties that there is no chance of anybody getting a majority in the first round. For the presidential election, there will be twelve candidates on the ballots.
Unlike in Australia, where the competition is mainly between a center-left party and a center-right party with minimal differences on international issues, there is a wide range of views of the role of France in international politics and Vlad the Destroyer’s minions have certainly been trying to influence the chances of the candidates with disinformation campaigns.
While he is not certain to win the run-off in two weeks, most observers expect the incumbent President, Emmanuel Macron, to make the run-off. He has led every poll with about 25-30% support. In terms of international issues, Macron sits firmly in the camp that has dominated France for the past fifty years — for lack of a better name, strong France internationalism. The basic gist of French foreign policy is that France is an active participant in working with other major democracies to build an international consensus on issues, but France certainly looks out for its own interests in those negotiations and is willing to say no to its allies or go it alone when it has to.
Tagged Emmanuel Macron, France, Jean Luc Melenchon, Marine Le Pen
Comments Off on French Election — Round 1
Australian Politics 2022 Style (Updated)
International Election season is fast approaching. Today’s post is on Australia. As of today, we do not have an exact date for the election in Australia, but we are pretty sure that it will be May 7, May 14, or May 21. Or to be more exact, we are certain that Australia will have a Senate election on one of those three dates, and are 99% certain that there will be a House election on the same date.
As with other countries, it is not that any one thing about Australia’s elections is unique. It’s how these features combine that make it unique. In this case, the issue is the different rules for Senate elections and for House elections. For Senate elections, there are some similarities between how the U.S. and Australia structure the Senate. In both countries, each state gets the same number of Australia (twelve per state in Australia with the territories getting two seats each), the terms for Senators elected from the states are six years (with the term for territorial senators in Australia being three years), and terms are staggered. What this means is that, every three years, Australia has a half-Senate election (six senators per state and the territorial senators). Unlike the U.S. there is no set date for a Senate election. Instead, it can be called for any time in the last year of the term (although the winners do not take office until the new term begins). As the new term begins on July 1, the last possible date to hold the election (and be certain that the results will be finalized) is May 21. And, at this point in time, even if the election were called the second that this post goes live, the earliest that the election could be held would be May 7 (but if the election is not called by Monday, that date would no longer be available).
On the other hand, while there are some similarities with the U.S. House, the Australian House is more like the Canadian House. The House is composed of districts (Division in Australia) which are apportioned to the states based on population. Like the U.S. House, there is a minimum number of Divisions (five) per state. Currently, the only state which gets extra seats under this rule is Tasmania. Unlike the U.S., which only reapportions every ten years, in Australia, this reapportionment occurs after every House election. If a state’s total number of seats changes, or any districts (called Divisions in Australia) are too large or small (i.e. outside the permitted deviation) or seven years has passed since the last time that the lines have been redrawn, a non-partisan committee of civil servants redraws the lines for that State. Australia’s term length for the House is three years — exactly in the middle between Canada and the U.S. However, like in Canada, that term is only the maximum term, and the government can call an election early.
Tagged Australia, Ranked Choice Voting, Single Transferable Vote
Comments Off on Australian Politics 2022 Style (Updated)
The Supreme Court and Voting Rights
Parties seeking to challenge a new law have to make a choice between filing a case in federal court (assuming that they have a federal constitutional claim) and filing in state court. Unless you have a favorable state Supreme Court, the usual tendency is to file in federal court. However, it is becoming very clear that, if you are challenging an illegal redistricting plan, you really have to file in state court as the U.S. Supreme Court will not be give any assistance to plaintiffs.
This week, the U.S. Supreme Court had what should have been a no-brainer. When faced with a challenge to the Alabama district lines under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, the three-judge panel issued a lengthy order which included detailed analysis of the evidence and tracked the governing precedent under Section 2. Under the existing law (and the plain language of Section 2), the Alabama maps were and are illegal. Under the legal standards governing a stay (which takes into account the merits and the interests of the parties), there was no basis for a stay. The Supreme Court should have denied the stay and summarily affirmed the judgment.
But that’s not what the Supreme Court did, By a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court issued the stay and put the case on the argument docket for the fall. Because there is no requirement for opinions on stays, we only know the reasoning of some of the justices. And what we do know gives a strong hint that the Voting Rights Act is effectively dead.
Also posted in Civil Rights, Judicial
Tagged Alabama, Purcell, redistricting, Section 2, Supreme Court, Voting Rights Act
Comments Off on The Supreme Court and Voting Rights
Redistricting 2022
The legislative part of redistricting is almost complete. Only nine states are still in the process of drafting the “first” set of maps. (Tw of those nine states are my home state of Missouri and the neighboring state of Kansas. In both states, the maps are through one house of the legislature and are under consideration in the second house.) In three states (Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), the first set of maps defaulted to the courts when the legislatures and the governors were unable to agree on the new maps.
But in the remaining states, the maps have been adopted. And that means that the battle over the maps has moved to the courts. At this point, I am aware of three states in which we have rulings about the new maps. Two of them are no surprise, or, at least, not much of a surprise. In Ohio, the Ohio Supreme Court found that the map passed by the Ohio legislature violated the Ohio Constitutions rules on redistricting which bars drawing a map which unduly favors one political party or unduly splits political subdivisions. In North Carolina, the North Carolina Supreme Court has under review an initial decision upholding the maps drawn by the North Carolina legislature. The North Carolina Supreme Court will hear arguments on February 2. Right now, it looks more likely than not that the North Carolina Supreme Court will strike down the map in that state.
The surprise on the list might be Alabama. Alabama was not on the list of states that we looked at last year. The failure to do so caused us to miss a change in demography within the state. For the last several cycles, there has been one minority-majority district in western Alabama (the Seventh District). In previous decades, the consensus was that — even though approximately one-quarter of the state is African-American — the minority population was too dispersed to creeate a second district that would either be a minority-majority district or close enough to qualify as an influence district. (Part of the theory of the case is that the new districts dilute the influence of African-Americans in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act or is a racial gerrymander in violation of the Equal Protection Clasue.) After the last census, however, it appears that by placing Birmingham in one district (the Seventh District) and Montgomery in a separate district in the southern part of the state, you could get two minority-majority districts (or at least two districts that would qualify as influence districts). For now, the panel of judges hearing the Voting Rights Act case has ordered that Alabama will not be allowed to use the new maps pending a final decision (and has given Alabama thirty days to submit replacement maps or the court will draw maps for this election cycle). Alabama has asked the Supreme Court to put this ruling on hold, and the Supreme Court has asked the plaintiffs for a response by February 2.
Also posted in House of Representatives
Tagged Alabama, Equal Protection Clause, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Redisticting, Texas, Voting Rights Act
Comments Off on Redistricting 2022
Virginia and New Jersey — Gaffes and What’s Next
It is a quadrennial tradition. The party in the White House has poor results in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and the pundits predict doom and gloom in the mid-term elections. (Of course, then the party in the White House has losses in the House and maybe losses in the Senate and the pundits say “see we told you so.” So what lessons should we take from this week’s results.
First, Terry McAuliffe did make a gaffe. Using the classic definition of a gaffe, he told the truth that nobody wants to hear. In his case, in response to questions about education, he noted that parents do not get to dictate to the schools what the schools teach. This statement is partially true. But as with most sound bites, explaining what was meant takes a lot of time and does not overcome the gut reaction to the original statement.
What is absolutely true is that public schools are not a system of private tutors. Teachers are responsible for teaching a class of students. For the system to work, Johnny has to be using the same books and Kathy. So Johnny’s parents do not get to decide the materials that Johnny has to read for the course.
Also posted in Economy
Tagged Education, Infrastructure, Mid-term elections, New Jersey, Off-year elections, Reconciliation, Virginia
Comments Off on Virginia and New Jersey — Gaffes and What’s Next
Elections Have Consequences — Biden Agenda Edition
It is a phrase that we repeatedly hear — typically by the majority as a justification for the unjustifiable, but elections do have consequences. But it’s not just who wins, but how they win. In many parliamentary countries, there is another common phrase a “working majority.” And the basic concept is that it is rarely enough to win by one or two seats. When you have a one or two seat majority, it only takes one or two members deciding to walk to cost the government the majority. And that’s in a parliamentary system where members risk forcing a new election if they defect from the government to the minority. In the United States, there is no threat of an immediate new election hanging over members’ heads to encourage the majority to stick together. As a result, the margin required for a working majority is somewhat larger in the U.S.
And that’s the problem that the current Democratic majority is facing. Currently, the Democrats have a 220-212 majority in the House (which will go up to 222-213 in January when all of the vacancies are filled). That means a mere four (now or five in January) defections means that nothing can pass. In the Senate, the Democrats do not have an actual majority. Even including the two independents who normally vote with the Democrats, the Senate is a 50-50 tie. Given the Senate filibuster rules, a 50-50 Senate can only pass reconciliation bills or confirm nominees, and even that requires all fifty members of the caucus to stick together at which point the Vice-President can break a tie.
The current mess on reconciliation and election reform is the result of the lack of a working majority. Needing every vote in the Senate requires getting the agreement of every Senator. Thus, each Senator can insist on concessions from the rest of the party. (It is a little harder in the House, but a group of five or more members have the same leverage). And to be clear, the leverage is not equal. When you need every vote, the ones who want to do less have a negotiating advantage over those who want to do more. The reality is that something is almost always better than nothing. So the “moderates” can tell the “progressives” that we are willing to vote for some increased funding for child care and clean energy and expanding Medicare but not for as much increased funding as you want, and the progressives have the option of accepting some funding for needed programs or not getting those programs at all. The only real limit to the moderates leverage is that, when it comes to needing to cut funding, progressive can counter by trying to trade off programs that they want for programs that the moderates want that progressives do not see as particularly useful. But that is very limited leverage. Thus, at the end of the day, the current numbers give a lot of additional power to Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Senator Krysten Sinema of (suppoesedly) Arizona. (The supposedly is that Senator Manchin’s positions flow from the politics of West Virginia and it is unlikely that Democrats could elect a more progressive Senator from West Virginia. Senator Sinema’s positions on the other hand do not flow from Arizona’s politics as her fellow Senator from Arizona, Mark Kelly, who actually has to run in 2022, is not blocking current proposals.)
Also posted in House of Representatives, Joe Biden, Senate
Tagged filibuster, Joe Biden, Joe Manchin, Krysten Sinema, Mark Kelly
Comments Off on Elections Have Consequences — Biden Agenda Edition
The German Election Result and What It Says About Europe
Last Sunday, Germany held elections for the lower house of its parliament. Given the mixed-member system that Germany uses, German elections are not immediately conclusive. The results merely set the terms for the negotiations that will follow over the shape of the government. But the election results do reflect the changes in Europe over the last 50 years.
The short version of the results is that the Social Democratic Party (the junior partner in the current government) made significant gains at the expense of the Christian Democratic/Social Union (the senior partner in the current government) and is now the largest party in parliament (206 seats vs. 196 seats). The Green Party made significant gains to move from sixth place to third place (now at 118 seats). The Free Democrats gained some seats but due to the big gains by the Greens stayed in fourth place (now at 92 seats). The Alternative for Germany fell from third place to fifth place dropping eleven seats (now at 83 seats). Finally, the Left lost about half of its seats to drop from fifth place to sixth place (now at 39 seats). While the numbers have shifted, the essential facts of political life remain the same. The only potential two-party majority is a grand union between the “Union” and the Social Democrats and a three-party coalition that features only one of the two largest party would require both the Greens and the Free Democrats (as the Left and the Alternative for the reasons noted below are not preferred options).
Hopping into the wayback machine, however, todays results would be unrecognizable to the German voter who voted in the 1980 election. Back in 1980, West Germany was primarily three parties — the Union, the Social Democrats, and the Free Democrats. At that time, the Free Democrats were essentially the balance in the center between the Union and the Social Democrats. The Free Democrats had the power to decide who would form the government and used that power to keep either of the other two parties from shifting to far from center. Over the 1980s, prior to unification, the Green Party formed and rivaled the Free Democrats for third party status.
Also posted in National Security
Tagged authoritarianism, democracy, Foreign Policy, Germany, human rights, nationalism
Comments Off on The German Election Result and What It Says About Europe
Election Backfires
Last month, I mentioned three elections scheduled for September. One of them — Germany scheduled for tomorrow — is a regular election at the expiration of the current parliamentary term. Two of them were not. In California, Republicans, thinking that his COVID policies made Governor Gavin Newsom vulnerable, pushed through a recall petition to force a recall election. In Canada, the governing Liberal Party, thought that favorable polls gave them a chance of turning their plurality into an actual majority.
The votes are now in. And both elections were a wash that mostly maintained the status quo.
In California, while early polls seemed to show a chance for the recall to succeed, the current vote totals are similar to the results of recent elections. With approximately 12.5 million votes counted (and only around 450,000 votes remaining to be counted), slightly over 62% of the votes are against the recall. The current counted votes are very similar to the final count from the 2018 election with the “no” votes being approximately 60,000 more votes that Governor Newsom got in 2018 and the “yes” votes being approximately 20,000 fewer votes than the Republican candidate got in 2018.
Tagged California, Canada
Comments Off on Election Backfires
Redistricting — California
California is a hard state to analyze redistricting for several reasons.
First, there is the sheer number of districts. With 52 districts (down from 53) there are a lot of choices to make.
Second, besides the large population, you also have a very diverse population. The state as a whole is a minority-majority state. And there are enough Latino, African-American, and Asian-Americans that map makers have to consider whether it is possible to create influence districts (or even majority districts) for each of these groups.
Also posted in House of Representatives
Tagged 2020 Census, California, redistricting
Comments Off on Redistricting — California
Redistricting — Illinois
Illinois concludes our tour of the midwestern states that lost a seat. Like New York, Illinois is dominated by one city (Chicago) and its suburbs. Eleven districts are at least partially in Cook County (Chicago) and another two are partially in a county adjoining Cook County leaving five districts for “downstate.”
Illinois’s current map has an overwhelming number of split precincts. The current map has four minority-majority district. Of those four districts, two (First District and Second District) have African-American majorities, one (Seventh District) has an African-American plurality, and one has a Hispanic majority (Fourth District).
The current map has six solid Democratic districts, two safe Democratic districts, two lean Democratic districts, and one toss-up that favor the Democrats. On the other side, Republicans have one solid district (Fifteenth District), one safe district (Eighteenth District), one lean district (Sixteenth District), and four toss-ups that favor the Republicans. Right now, Democrats hold three of the five toss-up seats.
Also posted in House of Representatives
Tagged 2020 Census, Illinois, redistricting
Comments Off on Redistricting — Illinois